If Bitcoin (BTC) closes below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) today, the probability of a cycle top increases significantly (60-70%). Bulls need to push BTC back above the 50-week SMA by the end of next week to restore 50/50 odds. Regardless of Q4, BTC is projected to retest its 200-week SMA by mid-to-late 2026, likely in the $60,000-$70,000 range.