The market currently expects an 88.8% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September 17, 2025 meeting, bringing the target rate to 400-425 bps. While a 50 bps cut to 375-400 bps is only priced in at 11.2%, economic indicators like rising unemployment and initial claims could justify a larger cut. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data for potential shifts in Fed policy expectations, which could impact interest-rate sensitive assets.