Why Crypto Still Struggles to Capture the Value It Creates | Roundup
Why Crypto Still Struggles to Capture the Value It Creates | Roundup
119 days agoBell CurveBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 7 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Ethereum (ETH) a foundational holding, as its value is directly tied to network usage through its fee-burning mechanism. For a high-performance alternative, look to Solana (SOL), which the market has rewarded for its speed and user experience. In the Layer 2 space, analyze projects based on their business model, such as Arbitrum (ARB) for its ecosystem dominance or Optimism (OP) for its "Rollup-as-a-Service" framework. For a high-risk but potentially transformative bet, research BitTensor (TAO), which is a leading project at the intersection of AI and Crypto. Ultimately, focus on projects with strong value-capture models over pure ideological decentralization.

Detailed Analysis

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The podcast hosts view Ethereum as a fundamental innovation in open-source software, calling it potentially the "only one with the North Star to be a purely open source layer."
  • Its primary breakthrough was solving the challenge of monetizing open-source software. It achieved this through a model where network usage requires paying fees in the native token (ETH).
  • The EIP-1559 burn mechanism is highlighted as a "beautiful mechanism" that creates direct value accrual for ETH holders as network activity increases.
  • One host argues that Ethereum's value should be seen through its ability to generate massive fees from its utility, rather than focusing on a "monetary premium" narrative.
  • The Ethereum base layer is currently positioned as a "DeFi chain," with other activities moving to Layer 2s.
  • Its decentralized and credibly neutral nature is considered a core strength, which may justify a monetary premium compared to more centralized chains.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The discussion is overwhelmingly bullish on Ethereum's long-term value proposition due to its unique and proven business model.
  • Value Driver: Investors should view network activity and the fees generated (and subsequently burned) as a primary driver of ETH's value. The more the network is used, the more valuable the token should become.
  • Core Holding: Ethereum's status as a credibly neutral, open-source platform with a built-in economic engine makes it a foundational asset in a crypto portfolio.
  • Competition Risk: While strong, Ethereum faces competition from more centralized but faster-moving chains like Solana and even its own Layer 2s like Base, which are siphoning off users and activity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin is credited with solving foundational computer science problems, which paved the way for platforms like Ethereum.
  • However, it has not solved the problem of monetizing its open-source nature. Its value is not derived from productive activity on the network.
  • The hosts describe it as a "big meme coin," with its value being similar to a precious metal like gold—a non-sovereign store of value rather than a productive asset.
  • The 21 million hard cap is seen as a powerful feature for Bitcoin's narrative but is criticized as a model that has been incorrectly applied to other types of crypto projects that would benefit from different tokenomics.

Takeaways

  • Asset Class: Investors should categorize Bitcoin as a digital store of value or "digital gold." Its investment thesis is based on its scarcity and network security, not on cash flows or platform revenue.
  • Not a Tech Play: Unlike Ethereum, investing in Bitcoin is not a bet on a rapidly evolving software platform but on its established position as the primary non-sovereign digital asset.

Layer 2s (L2s) & Rollup-as-a-Service (RAS)

This section covers the general theme and specific projects like Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), Base, and ZK Sync.

  • Business Model Evolution: L2s were created to solve Ethereum's scaling issues (high cost and slow speed). Their business models are evolving away from simply having a utility token and towards becoming service providers.
  • The "Red Hat" Analogy: The winning L2s may be those that act like Red Hat did for Linux. They take a powerful but complex open-source technology (Ethereum) and package it into a stable, reliable, and user-friendly product for businesses and developers.
  • Two Competing Strategies:
    1. First-Party Rollup: Focus on building a single, dominant L2 with its own vibrant ecosystem. Arbitrum is the prime example of this success, having created a "deep and liquid DeFi ecosystem."
    2. Rollup Framework: Focus on providing the underlying technology (a "stack") for others to build their own rollups. Optimism has pursued this with the OP Stack, which powers chains like Base and Kraken's Ink chain.
  • Rollup-as-a-Service (RAS): This is seen as the next evolution. Instead of just providing a framework, companies host and manage the rollups for their clients, handling DevOps, upgrades, and integrations. ZK Sync is highlighted for its "elegant" model of integrating a RAS solution with its tokenomics.

Takeaways

  • Investment Focus: The L2 space is moving from a "which chain will win?" narrative to a "which business model will win?" narrative. Investors should analyze whether a project is successfully building its own ecosystem (like Arbitrum) or successfully selling its technology to others (like Optimism and ZK Sync).
  • Base (Coinbase): As an L2 built on the OP Stack, Base is a major player to watch. It leverages Coinbase's massive user distribution to build a consumer-focused ecosystem, creating potential competitive tension with Ethereum itself.
  • ZK Sync: Its integrated RAS model is presented as a potentially superior business strategy. It monetizes services through a traditional equity company while using its token to facilitate interoperability between the chains on its network. This is a model to watch for future projects.
  • Consolidation is Likely: The hosts predict consolidation in the L2 market, as a power law will likely emerge where only a few dominant players or frameworks capture most of the value.

Solana (SOL) & Hyperliquid

  • Solana is presented as a successful example of a more top-down, "less open-source" approach. While the base layer is open source, its development has been more controlled, allowing it to remain highly competitive and innovate quickly.
  • This contrasts with Ethereum's slower, more decentralized governance. The market has rewarded Solana's approach, showing that users may prioritize performance and user experience over pure decentralization for many applications.
  • Hyperliquid is another example of this trend. It is a highly successful project built on the Cosmos SDK, but it was noted that many of its key components were not initially open source, allowing it to protect its edge and capture value.

Takeaways

  • Alternative Model: Solana represents a different, successful path for building a blockchain. Investors should recognize that a more centralized but high-performance chain can be a viable and highly valuable competitor to Ethereum.
  • Value Capture over Ideology: The success of Solana and Hyperliquid suggests a market trend where projects that strategically use closed-source components to maintain a competitive advantage can outperform purely open-source, ideologically-driven projects.

AI & Crypto (featuring BitTensor - TAO)

  • Major Theme: The intersection of AI and Crypto is identified as a massive, emerging investment theme. The core idea is that blockchains can solve key problems in AI.
  • Open vs. Closed Source AI: Most dominant AI models today (ChatGPT, Google Gemini) are closed source, concentrating power in a few large companies. Crypto offers a path to create and monetize open-source AI.
  • BitTensor (TAO):
    • This project is highlighted as a leading example of creating a "free market for AI" on a blockchain.
    • It works by creating a network where "miners" contribute their AI models and are rewarded with TAO tokens based on the quality of their responses, as judged by "validators."
    • This creates a competitive environment designed to constantly improve the collective intelligence of the network.
    • The ecosystem is gaining significant traction, with major players like DCG getting involved.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk, High-Reward: BitTensor (TAO) is a speculative but potentially transformative bet on the future of decentralized, open-source AI. Its success hinges on whether its incentive model can produce AI that is competitive with closed-source giants.
  • The Broader Opportunity: Investors should look for crypto projects that provide tangible solutions for AI, such as:
    • Incentivizing Data Contribution: Paying users for providing valuable data to train models.
    • Verifiable Computation: Using blockchains to prove that an AI model ran correctly and was not tampered with.
    • Monetization: Creating payment rails for open-source AI models to be used via APIs, potentially disrupting the current SaaS model.
  • Future Prediction: A host predicted that a major open-source AI company (like DeepSeek) will eventually use a blockchain to monetize its models, validating this entire thesis.
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Episode Description
In this episode, we trace how open-source software shaped crypto, why value capture remains hard beyond Layer 1s, how rollups and infrastructure borrowed the wrong mental models, and where AI is forcing a rethink of software business models, incentives, and trust. Enjoy!Thanks for tuning in! – Follow Myles: https://x.com/MylesOneil Follow Xavier: https://x.com/0xave Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ – Subscribe on YouTube: ⁠https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9⁠ Subscribe on Apple: ⁠https://apple.co/3pQTfmD⁠ Subscribe on Spotify: ⁠https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH⁠ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ —-- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (01:49) The Evolution of Software and Open Source (08:13) Red Hat and Commercial Open Source Software (14:41) The Rise of Open Core Companies (19:21) Cloud Computing and Open Source Software (21:40) The Intersection of Open Source and Crypto (23:17) The Role of Layer 1s in Monetization (29:22) Layer 2s: Business Models and Challenges (55:30) AI’s Disruption of B2B SaaS and Open Source (01:04:41) Final Thoughts —-- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About Bell Curve
Bell Curve

Bell Curve

By Blockworks

Bell Curve breaks down the most important themes in crypto for people who, like us, are confined to the middle of the bell curve. Each season explores a different thesis that we'll test and refine through debate with crypto's best. If you're a crypto native, degen or investooor, this podcast is for you. Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9 Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Join the Bell Curve Telegram group: https://t.me/+nzyxAvQ0Xxc3YTEx