Oneshot: Market Uncertainty, AI Valuations, and Crypto’s Path Forward | Roundup
Oneshot: Market Uncertainty, AI Valuations, and Crypto’s Path Forward | Roundup
57 days agoBell CurveBlockworks
Podcast51 min 11 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors seeking high-yield alternatives to T-bills should consider MicroStrategy Preferred Equity (STRC), which offers an 11.5% yield and unique tax advantages while fueling Bitcoin accumulation. For active traders, Hyperliquid (HYPE) provides a high-conviction play on decentralized finance, offering 24/7 access to commodities like Oil and showing significant relative strength against major crypto assets. To capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, focus on Bitcoin miners like Core Scientific (CORZ) and Iris Energy (IREN), which leverage their existing power grid access to host high-demand NVIDIA GPUs. Avoid overpaying for private AI startups at current valuations; instead, wait for the anticipated SpaceX IPO or potential market corrections to buy "AI-native" leaders at more reasonable public multiples. For a defensive "flight to quality" during macro uncertainty, allocate to established on-chain protocols like Sky (formerly MakerDAO) and its USDS stablecoin, which continue to see record supply growth.

Detailed Analysis

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Context: Mentioned as a major winner during recent market volatility. The platform allows for 24/7 trading of perpetuals for both crypto and non-crypto assets (like oil/commodities).
  • Performance: The HYPE token is hitting all-time highs relative to BTC, ETH, and SOL, trading around the $36–$37 range.
  • Market Dynamics: The "HIP3" initiative and the introduction of non-crypto assets on a crypto-native platform are driving significant activity and excitement.

Takeaways

  • 24/7 Commodity Trading: Hyperliquid is becoming a go-to venue for trading traditional assets like oil during weekend geopolitical events when traditional markets are closed.
  • Relative Strength: Its ability to hit all-time highs while the broader market is uncertain suggests strong "product-market fit" for decentralized perpetual exchanges.

MicroStrategy Preferred Equity (STRC)

  • Context: Described as a "perpetual preferred equity instrument" issued by MicroStrategy that pays an 11.5% yield.
  • Mechanism: It is an equity-side instrument (not debt) that trades on the NASDAQ (Par value ~$99.99). The proceeds are used by Michael Saylor to buy more Bitcoin.
  • Tax Advantage: For U.S. investors, distributions are often treated as "deferred return on capital" rather than interest, allowing for tax deferral until the asset is sold.
  • Bitcoin Accumulation: Estimates suggest this product allows MicroStrategy to accumulate roughly 2,000 BTC per trading day.

Takeaways

  • The "iPhone Moment" for Bitcoin Finance: The speakers view this as a fundamental unlock for Bitcoin accumulation, potentially absorbing 0.5% of the total Bitcoin supply every 10 weeks.
  • Yield Alternative: Positioned as an alternative to T-bills or money markets for investors who believe Bitcoin will stay above a certain threshold (e.g., $10k) long-term.
  • Risk Factor: While "money good" even if Bitcoin drops significantly, it remains a bet on the continued performance of BTC and Saylor's ability to manage the treasury.

Sky (formerly MakerDAO) / USDS

  • Context: Mentioned as a "safe haven" within the crypto ecosystem during periods of global macro uncertainty.
  • Performance: Reaching all-time highs for the supply of USDS (the rebranded DAI stablecoin).

Takeaways

  • Flight to Quality: In a "risk-off" environment, capital is migrating to established on-chain credit and stablecoin protocols.
  • DeFi Resilience: Unlike previous cycles where stablecoin volumes collapsed, current on-chain TVL (Total Value Locked) is staying flat or growing, indicating a healthier ecosystem.

AI Data Centers & Bitcoin Miners

  • Context: Companies like Core Scientific (CORZ) and Iris Energy (IREN) are pivoting from pure Bitcoin mining to AI data center hosting.
  • The "Power" Moat: The primary value of these companies is their existing "electrical hookup" to the grid. Getting new grid-connected power can take up to 5 years, making existing sites incredibly valuable.
  • Financing: These firms are using Bitcoin mining revenue to finance the purchase of expensive NVIDIA GPUs.

Takeaways

  • Infrastructure Bet: Investing in "AI-ready" miners is a way to play the AI boom without picking a specific software winner.
  • The Power Bottleneck: Power, not just chips, is the limiting factor for AI. Companies with "behind-the-meter" power or nuclear partnerships (like Microsoft and Amazon) hold the strategic advantage.
  • Risk Factor: The "Edge Compute" threat—if AI models become efficient enough to run on phones/local devices (like Mac Minis), the demand for massive centralized data centers could soften.

Private vs. Public AI Valuations

  • Context: A massive "mismatch" exists between private VC valuations and public markets.
  • Comparison:
    • Figma (Public/Late Stage): ~$15B valuation, $4B revenue, growing 45% year-over-year (~3x multiple).
    • Lovable (Private AI-native): ~$6.6B valuation, $400M ARR, growing 30% per month (~20x multiple).
  • The "AI-Native" Premium: Investors are paying massive premiums for companies built on AI from day one (like Lovable, Replit, OpenAI, Anthropic) versus "software-native" companies trying to add AI.

Takeaways

  • Potential Bubble: The speakers warn of a "bubble forming in private VC land" due to extreme extrapolation of short-term growth rates.
  • IPO Watch: SpaceX is rumored to go public in June at a $1.75 Trillion valuation. This will be a major test of market liquidity.
  • Investment Strategy: The analysts suggest it may be wiser to wait for these "overvalued" private companies to IPO and potentially buy them at a 50-70% discount during the eventual "unlock" period when early investors sell.

Investment Themes & Sector Outlook

Macro & Geopolitics

  • Oil (WTI Crude): Highly volatile, swinging between $80 and $120. High energy prices are driving "risk-off" sentiment due to fears of renewed inflation.
  • Interest Rates: Expectations for rate cuts are cooling. While some call for emergency cuts, the Fed may stay higher for longer unless a major conflict resolves.

Crypto "Green Shoots"

  • Revenue Meta: The next leg up for crypto (outside of BTC/ETH) will likely be driven by protocols that generate real revenue and buy back tokens (e.g., Hype, Pump.fun, Sky, Syrup).
  • BlackRock ETH ETF: The launch of staking-related Ethereum products is seen as a positive, persistent absorption of the asset.
  • Take-Private Trend: Projects like Across Protocol moving from public tokens back to private structures suggest that public markets have "beaten down" crypto assets too far, creating value for private buyers.
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Episode Description
This week, Michael and Vance sat down to discuss the state of the market, private-versus-public valuation gaps in AI and venture markets, a proposal to convert the Across token to equity, Strategy’s STRC product, potential crypto recovery narratives, and the role of bitcoin miners in AI data center infrastructure. Enjoy! – Follow Oneshot: https://x.com/OneshotPodBW Follow Framework Ventures: https://x.com/hiFramework Follow Michael: https://x.com/im_manderson Follow Vance: https://x.com/pythianism Subscribe on YouTube: http://bit.ly/4aytFti Subscribe on Apple: https://bit.ly/4aJwHen Subscribe on Spotify: https://bit.ly/4rZkkSt —- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Market Outlook (24:12) The Across Token to Equity Proposal (27:20) Strategy’s STRC (35:10) Positive Narratives For Crypto (38:54) Data Centers & Bitcoin Mining (48:10) Closing Comments —-- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Oneshot is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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Bell Curve

By Blockworks

Bell Curve breaks down the most important themes in crypto for people who, like us, are confined to the middle of the bell curve. Each season explores a different thesis that we'll test and refine through debate with crypto's best. If you're a crypto native, degen or investooor, this podcast is for you. Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9 Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Join the Bell Curve Telegram group: https://t.me/+nzyxAvQ0Xxc3YTEx