Wild Runs & Stocks Left Behind: QQQ, MSTR, STRC, BTC, META vs. HIMS, SOFI, CELH—Still Cheap?
Wild Runs & Stocks Left Behind: QQQ, MSTR, STRC, BTC, META vs. HIMS, SOFI, CELH—Still Cheap?
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a renewed bull cycle trading near $87,000, making MicroStrategy (MSTR) an attractive high-conviction vehicle to capture 1.5x leveraged upside.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) offers an immediate buying opportunity down 13% for the month around a $7 billion valuation, heavily de-risked by its confirmed distribution partnership with Novo Nordisk for next-generation weight-loss drugs.

Investors should buy the pullback in Celsius Holdings (CELH), where temporary retail shipping distortions mask strong underlying consumer demand and growth from its Alani Nu brand acquisition.

Hold Meta Platforms (META) to benefit from massive long-term AI agent monetization across its user base, but wait for price consolidations rather than chasing its recent 11.4% surge.

Keep SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on your watchlist, holding off on aggressive buying until Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and easing 10-year Treasury yields provide macro relief for its lending business.

Detailed Analysis

Meta Platforms (META)

  • META surged 11.4% in a single day, behaving with extreme volatility usually seen in cryptocurrencies rather than mega-cap tech stocks.
    • The market reacted positively to an ad release for its new AI model, Muse, reflecting renewed interest in Meta's AI capabilities following Llama 3.
    • A major long-term catalyst is the potential monetization of consumer AI agents across Meta's 3 billion users (such as an "Instagram Plus" tier estimated around $3.99/month, comparable to X's Grok).
    • Recent sell-offs related to headline regulatory fines were overdone, as the company historically settles legal matters for amounts significantly lower than initially stated in SEC filings.

Takeaways

  • Meta remains well-positioned to monetize artificial intelligence at scale across its massive user base, but rapid price run-ups limit low-risk entry points for dollar-cost averaging.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • MSTR rose over 10% on the day (up 26% across two trading sessions), breaking out of a multi-month slump.
    • The stock has regained its historical leverage profile, outperforming Bitcoin's price movement by roughly 1.5x.
    • Its multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV) climbed from 1.21 to 1.23, making it accretive once again to utilize its at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program to acquire more Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • MicroStrategy's premium to its underlying Bitcoin holdings has expanded, restoring the effectiveness of its capital-raising flywheel to purchase more cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • BTC gained 6.5% during the session, trading around $87,000 and signaling the beginning of a renewed bull market cycle.
    • At current price levels, most corporate treasury companies holding Bitcoin have moved back into profitable territory.
    • Institutional and corporate buying mechanisms continue to remove circulating supply permanently from the market.

Takeaways

  • Broad crypto sentiment is shifting back to bullish, stabilizing treasury balance sheets and providing tailwinds for Bitcoin-adjacent equities.

Preferred Bitcoin Treasury Vehicles (Stretch & SATA)

  • MicroStrategy's preferred shares (Stretch) traded up to $99.04, approaching its par target price of $100.
    • Reaching $100 allows the company to issue equity directly through the preferred vehicle rather than diluting the common stock (MSTR).
    • Similar treasury vehicle SATA has traded at its $100 par target while paying daily dividends, recently purchasing over 300 Bitcoin in a single day through its ATM facility.

Takeaways

  • If preferred treasury instruments consistently trade at or above par ($100), it provides an efficient, non-dilutive capital pipeline to buy and lock up additional Bitcoin.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

  • HIMS is down roughly 13% for the month despite a recent 4% bounce, trading at a valuation of approximately $6.8B to $7B.
    • Novo Nordisk listed Hims alongside major retail and tech names as a primary future distribution partner in its recent investor presentation, reducing perceived legal/competitive risks.
    • The company is positioned to benefit from next-generation weight-loss drugs (such as Novo's upcoming Kagrisema and UBT 251).
    • The business continues to expand top-line revenue, develop health-tracking wearables, and build AI recommendation tools, yet trades at roughly half the prospective $14B valuation of private wearable competitor Oura.

Takeaways

  • Hims is currently overlooked by a market focused almost exclusively on crypto and large-cap AI, presenting an attractive entry point given its strong top-line growth and expanding pharmaceutical partnerships.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

  • SOFI has lagged the broader market due to persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
    • High interest rates directly pressure the company's personal lending segment.
    • Despite multi-year stock underperformance, revenue growth remains solid, and the long-predicted wave of borrower loan defaults has not materialized.

Takeaways

  • SoFi remains an undervalued growth play, but significant share price appreciation will likely require macro relief in the form of falling bond yields and interest rate cuts.

Celsius Holdings (CELH)

  • CELH has experienced a sharp pullback as analysts raise concerns over flattening retail shipment numbers.
    • Revenue recognition timing and frequent flavor SKU rotations at retail accounts skew short-term reported sales, masking true underlying consumer demand.
    • Growth is significantly supported by the Alani Nu brand acquisition, a fast-growing, female-focused energy drink line gaining major market share.
    • The business retains strong long-term profit characteristics, drawing comparisons to the early growth trajectory of Monster Beverage.

Takeaways

  • The market appears to be mispricing Celsius based on short-term shipping dynamics rather than long-term consumer adoption and brand strength, offering a potential value opportunity in the consumer staples sector.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover today's rebound with QQQ, AMD, META, MSTR, STRC, TSLA doing well, and stocks like HIMS or SOFI and CELH (Celsius) potentially staying too cheap. No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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