Investors should consider the current pullback in Nebius (NBIS) to the $133 level as a high-conviction entry point, given its massive $49 billion contract backlog and projected 600% growth over the next year. Within the semiconductor space, NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the preferred play over AMD due to its superior profit margins and a valuation that suggests a path toward a $10 trillion market cap by 2030. While the broader AI sector is taking a "breather" following reports of slowing growth at OpenAI, this volatility creates a buying opportunity for high-growth companies with low valuation multiples. For those seeking stability, Tesla (TSLA) is currently showing steady consolidation, acting as a stabilizing force compared to the more volatile AI and software sectors. Finally, investors in Bitcoin (BTC) and miners like MicroStrategy (MSTR) should prepare for continued correlation with growth stocks, as miners increasingly pivot their infrastructure to support AI workloads.

Nebius (NBIS)

• The stock has recently experienced a significant "breather" or pullback, dropping 8% in a single day after a rapid run-up to the high 150s. • The speaker considers the current price of $133 to be "way too cheap" based on internal valuation metrics. • Growth Projections: Predicted to grow 600% over the next 12 months with a long-term backlog of $49 billion in contracts. • Key Partnerships: Significant deals include a $27 billion deal with Meta and a $19 billion deal with Microsoft. • Infrastructure: Scaling aggressively from 170 megawatts to 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026; recently received $2 billion from NVIDIA.

Takeaways

• Buying Opportunity: The speaker views the current pullback to $133 as a more reasonable entry point for a stock that is growing "super fast." • Valuation Metric: The stock is highlighted as having an EV/GP/RG (Enterprise Value to Gross Profit to Revenue Growth) of 0.08, which the speaker uses to identify extremely undervalued high-growth companies.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Identified as one of the cheapest "Magnificent 7" stocks according to the speaker’s spreadsheet. • Financial Strength: Boasts an EBITDA margin profile three times more profitable than its competitor AMD. • Growth & Valuation: Growing at 55% with an EV/GP/RG of 0.6. • Market Cap Outlook: The speaker believes NVIDIA is in the "pole position" to become one of the first companies to reach a $10 trillion market cap before 2030.

Takeaways

• Preference over AMD: NVIDIA is preferred because it is cheaper, more profitable, and growing faster despite its much larger size. • Long-term Bullishness: Investors should not be deterred by the $3 trillion+ market cap, as the speaker sees a path to $10 trillion.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• AMD's growth rate has increased significantly, and the company is "picking up speed" compared to previous years. • However, it remains more expensive than NVIDIA on a relative basis, with an EV/GP/RG of 0.75.

Takeaways

• Relative Value: While AMD is performing well, it is currently viewed as a secondary play to NVIDIA due to lower margins and a higher valuation multiple.

Tesla (TSLA)

• The stock is showing "cozy" and steady price action compared to the volatility seen in other tech and AI sectors. • The speaker views the current consolidation and steady movement as a positive sign for the stock's health.

Takeaways

• Stability: Tesla is currently acting as a stabilizing force in the portfolio, avoiding the "wild moves" of the broader AI bucket.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Bitcoin Miners

• Bitcoin has been dropping recently, appearing to trade in correlation with "growth weakness" and the NASDAQ/Software ETFs. • Bitcoin Miners: These stocks are being hit harder (down ~6.3%) because they are viewed as a "hybrid" between Bitcoin and AI. • AI Pivot: Many miners are pivoting their data centers to support AI workloads, which links their stock performance to both the crypto and AI sectors.

Takeaways

• Sector Correlation: Investors in Bitcoin miners should expect volatility from two fronts: fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and sentiment shifts in the AI industry.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The stock is currently trading roughly in line with the price movements of Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• Proxy Play: MSTR remains a direct proxy for Bitcoin price action rather than trading on its own independent software fundamentals.

Investment Themes & Sector Insights

The "AI Breather"

• The broader AI and innovation sector is experiencing a pullback, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report regarding OpenAI missing user growth projections. • The speaker views this "breather" as healthy and necessary, as stocks were rising "too fast, too hard."

Competitive Shift in AI

• OpenAI vs. Competitors: The speaker suggests OpenAI is losing the AI race to Anthropic (Claude) and Google, noting that consumer interest in ChatGPT appears to be waning. • Legal Risks: Mention of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit as a potential headwind for that specific ecosystem.

Valuation Philosophy

• The speaker emphasizes the Rule of 40 and EV/GP/RG as primary metrics for evaluating high-growth tech, favoring companies where growth rates significantly outpace valuation multiples.