Q2 Updates: Earnings & New Valuation (EV/GP/RG) for OSCR, CELH! Steady Eddy Reports, but EPIC DROPS!
Q2 Updates: Earnings & New Valuation (EV/GP/RG) for OSCR, CELH! Steady Eddy Reports, but EPIC DROPS!
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on the recent 13% drop in Oscar Health (OSCR) by treating it as a compelling long-term hold, given its massive revenue beats and dirt-cheap valuation. Ignore Wall Street's overreaction to standard medical loss ratio cycles and view OSCR as fundamentally disconnected from its short-term price sell-off. Accumulate shares of Celsius Holdings (CELH) following its recent 17% post-earnings drop, which was driven by temporary inventory noise rather than core business deterioration. Leverage CELH's deep value status, boasting a stellar Rule of 40 score of 61 and strong market share gains against legacy competitors Red Bull and Monster. Use the current summer market illiquidity to buy both OSCR and CELH at steep discounts for significant multi-quarter upside.

Detailed Analysis

Oscar Health (OSCR)

  • Experienced a massive single-day drop of over 13% (with some pre-market data showing swings up to a total drop of more than a third of its value), despite beating earnings and reporting a handsomely high revenue beat by 130%.
  • The sell-off was triggered by market concerns over commentary regarding the second half of the year and utilization rates, specifically that profits depend on Q3 and Q4.
  • The podcaster notes that a high medical loss ratio creeping up in Q3 and Q4 as people use up benefits is standard industry behavior and should not have surprised Wall Street.
  • Trailing 12-month revenue growth sits at 70%, driven by aggressive premium increases (some triple-digit, most around 30%).
  • Valued at an enterprise value over gross profit over revenue (EV/GP/RG) of 0.09 (calculated without including the float), making the speaker view it as dirt cheap.

Takeaways

  • Consider Oscar Health a long-term hold rather than trading it based on short-term market "vibes."
  • Recognize that the recent steep price drop is viewed as nonsensical and disconnected from the company's strong underlying business performance.

Celsius Holdings (CELH)

  • Suffered a steep drop of approximately 17% following earnings.
  • The market reacted negatively due to inventory accounting changes and slower core Celsius brand growth, even though their acquired brand, Alani Nu, is firing on all cylinders and taking massive market share.
  • The podcaster argues that market cannibalization between Celsius and Alani Nu is a non-issue because the revenue ultimately flows to the same parent company, and together they are successfully taking market share from legacy competitors Red Bull and Monster.
  • Trades at an enterprise value over gross profit over revenue of 0.11, putting it in deep value territory with a Rule of 40 score of 61 and an analyst-estimated revenue growth of 38%.

Takeaways

  • View the post-earnings sell-off as an overreaction driven by summer market illiquidity and trader sentiment rather than fundamental business failure.
  • Treat Celsius as an attractive deep value opportunity given its strong market positioning against competitors like Monster and Red Bull.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover the disappointing August price action for stocks like OSCR stock (Oscar) and CELH stock (Celsius stock). No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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