NVDA Fears Trigger Risk-On Sell Off! My Expectations for HIMS, META, NVDA, NBIS & IREN. Too Cheap?
NVDA Fears Trigger Risk-On Sell Off! My Expectations for HIMS, META, NVDA, NBIS & IREN. Too Cheap?
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying dips in HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) as it remains fundamentally undervalued with high-margin growth catalysts in GLP-1 weight loss drugs and upcoming peptide pipeline approvals through 2027.

META (Meta Platforms) presents an attractive long-term buying opportunity following a $17 billion legal settlement that eliminates a major risk overhang while market hesitation keeps the valuation subdued.

Prepare for short-term volatility in NVDA (NVIDIA) by using expected post-earnings dips as tactical entry points to capture its typical multi-day recovery pattern.

For NeoCloud computing exposure, look to establish positions in top-tier provider NBIS (Nebius Group) if price action pulls back into the $180–$190 range.

Alternatively, accumulate IREN (Iris Energy) as a deep-value AI cloud infrastructure play that trades 3.5x to 5x cheaper than peers and is uniquely positioned to price upcoming compute contracts at higher rates.

Detailed Analysis

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

  • The speaker views HIMS as consistently undervalued, noting that it acts as a "punching bag" during broader risk-off sell-offs despite having strong underlying fundamentals.
  • Two major growth catalysts are highlighted:
    • GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs: The rollout is in full swing across their platform. Even on branded offerings, HIMS earns steady income through a $149/month doctor follow-up/prescription fee. Additionally, Eli Lilly's upcoming drug, Retatrutide, represents a significant potential pipeline addition.
    • Peptides: Potential approval across multiple peptide product rounds (timeline estimates range from November 2024 to January 2027), which the speaker believes the market is entirely overlooking.
  • Key financial metrics highlighted:
    • Valuation ratio: Enterprise Value over Gross Profit/Revenue Growth is at 0.11.
    • Current EBITDA margin is 9%, with management targeting long-term EBITDA margins of 20% to 30% into the 2030s.
    • A Rule of 40 score of 46.

Takeaways

  • Consider buying dips in HIMS as the current sell-off appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamental.
  • Long-term investors can monitor progress in their GLP-1 expansion and pending peptide pipeline developments as key triggers for valuation upside.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

  • NVDA has lagged the wider NASDAQ index over the past year (up 15% vs. the NASDAQ's 24%), despite strong revenue and product demand.
  • The company announced a 17% price increase on AI servers, but the stock sold off on the news rather than rallying.
  • The speaker anticipates short-term post-earnings downside driven by market maker sentiment and nitpicking, but notes that dips in NVDA often see a multi-day recovery pattern.
  • High expectations mean a standard "good quarter" may not be enough to drive immediate upside in a cautious macro environment.

Takeaways

  • Prepare for short-term post-earnings volatility, as high market expectations could cause an initial drop even on solid quarterly numbers.
  • Watch for post-earnings pullbacks as potential entry opportunities if the stock follows its historical pattern of recovering shortly after an initial dump.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

  • Meta settled a major legal overhang for $17 billion, which the speaker considers a very bullish outcome given the original multi-trillion dollar concerns.
  • The market’s muted reaction (up only 1% on the day after pre-market strength) reflects broader market risk aversion heading into NVDA earnings and upcoming Federal Reserve speeches at Jackson Hole.
  • Strong financial fundamentals remain intact:
    • Annual revenue of approximately $228 billion.
    • Robust profitability with an 82% gross margin and a 48% EBITDA margin.

Takeaways

  • The resolution of legal uncertainty removes a major overhang on META, making the subdued price action an attractive backdrop for long-term investors.
  • Broad market fear, rather than company-specific weakness, appears to be holding back the share price.

Nebius Group (NBIS)

  • Nebius is considered the higher-quality "NeoCloud" provider due to its specialized software stack, high-profile management, and a reported $2 billion direct investment relationship with NVIDIA.
  • Nebius has targets to secure over 5 gigawatts of compute capacity for renting out GPU clusters.
  • Potential risk factor: Because Nebius already has locked-in long-term customer contracts, rising hardware costs from NVIDIA's 17% server price hike may limit their ability to capture higher margins on existing commitments compared to uncontracted competitors.

Takeaways

  • Maintain a long-term bullish stance on Nebius as an elite NeoCloud play, but monitor upcoming earnings and macro market pressures.
  • A pullback into the $180–$190 price range would offer a more attractive risk-to-reward entry point.

IREN / Iris Energy (IREN)

  • IREN represents the cheaper alternative in the NeoCloud space, trading at a valuation roughly 3.5x to 5x cheaper than Nebius on a trailing 12-month basis.
  • Valuation metric stands around 0.09 on the speaker's growth ratio.
  • Unlike Nebius, IREN has fewer pre-signed long-term deals, which positions them favorably to price upcoming compute contracts at higher rates following NVIDIA's price hikes.
  • Like Nebius, IREN aims to reach 5+ gigawatts of compute capacity and maintains hardware supply agreements with NVIDIA.

Takeaways

  • IREN offers deep value for investors looking for aggressive upside in AI cloud infrastructure at a fraction of the valuation of peers like Nebius.
  • Investors should expect high volatility due to delayed analyst ratings and broader tech sector pullbacks heading into September.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also rotation moves, and the price action of stocks such as Hims, NBIS, IREN, META and NVDA (Nvidia stock). No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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