Nebius (NBIS) is a high-conviction investment opportunity in the AI Cloud space, demonstrating hyper-growth with 624% year-over-year revenue growth. The company has raised its revenue run-rate guidance to $1.1 billion by the end of 2025, signaling strong future performance. A key part of the investment thesis is its "hidden value" from a 28% stake in data analytics firm ClickHouse and ownership of autonomous vehicle company AVRide. Analysts suggest NBIS is attractively valued, potentially offering a better risk/reward profile than Super Micro Computer (SMCI). The combination of explosive core business growth, new high-profile customers like Cloudflare (NET), and undervalued assets makes NBIS a compelling consideration.

Nebius (NBIS)

• Performance & Growth: The stock is described as a hyper-growth stock, with a recent single-day price increase of 24%.
  • Year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth was 624%.
  • Quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth was 106% (from $51 million in Q1 2025 to $105 million in Q2 2025).
  • The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in the most recent quarter.
• Upgraded Guidance: Nebius has increased its forward-looking guidance.
  • Revenue: Raised its revenue run-rate target from $900 million to $1.1 billion by the end of 2025.
  • Power Capacity: Formalized a goal to have 1 gigawatt of power capacity by the end of 2026. Access to power is presented as a key future value driver for AI companies.
• Business Model & Strategy:
  • Nebius is an AI Cloud provider, offering both infrastructure (hardware) and a critical software layer. The speaker emphasizes it's more of a Platform as a Service (PaaS) than just an infrastructure provider.
  • It's compared to a specialized, standalone version of Google GCP, Amazon AWS, or Microsoft Azure focused entirely on AI.
  • The company is making significant capital expenditures (CapEx) to fuel its expansion, which is noted as a factor that might scare some investors.
  • It has a strong cash position of $1.68 billion.
• New High-Profile Customers: Nebius recently signed Cloudflare (NET) and Shopify (SHOP) as customers for its AI cloud, signaling confidence from best-in-class tech companies.
• Valuation:
  • The speaker calculates a forward growth rate of 354% based on the company's guidance.
  • Using a "Price to Sales to Growth" type of metric (EV/GP/RG), the speaker arrives at a value of 0.30, suggesting the stock is as "cheap" as Super Micro Computer (SMCI) but with potentially better execution.
• "Hidden" Venture Capital Assets: A significant part of the investment thesis is Nebius's ownership in private tech companies.
  • ClickHouse: Nebius owns 28% of this data analytics company.
    • ClickHouse was recently valued at $6.35 billion in a funding round.
    • This makes Nebius's stake worth approximately $1.77 billion, which could be subtracted from its enterprise value, making the core business appear even cheaper.
  • AVRide: An autonomous ride-hailing company with operations planned for Dallas and currently active in Japan.
    • This is compared to valuable assets like Google's Waymo and Amazon's Zoox.
    • The speaker suggests this could be worth a lot if it were spun off as a separate company.

Takeaways

• Bullish Thesis: The podcast presents an extremely bullish case for Nebius, driven by explosive growth, strong execution, and a valuation that may not fully reflect its potential.
• AI Infrastructure Play: Nebius is a direct play on the growth of AI, providing the specialized cloud infrastructure and software needed to run AI models. Its ability to secure power is a key long-term advantage.
• More Than Meets the Eye: The investment case isn't just about the core AI cloud business. The significant stakes in private companies like ClickHouse and AVRide offer "hidden value" that could be unlocked in the future through IPOs or spin-offs.
• Risk Factor: Investors should be aware of the high level of Capital Expenditure (CapEx). While this spending is fueling growth, it's an aggressive strategy that carries inherent risk.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

• Valuation Comparable: SMCI is used as a benchmark to assess Nebius's valuation.
• Sentiment: The speaker suggests that Nebius is trading at a similarly "cheap" valuation multiple relative to its growth (0.30 "EV over GP over RG") but argues that Nebius may be executing "much better" than SMCI.

Takeaways

• Relative Value: For investors looking at the AI hardware and infrastructure space, the podcast implies that Nebius (NBIS) might offer a more attractive risk/reward profile compared to SMCI at current valuations. This is not a bearish call on SMCI, but rather a very bullish comparative view on NBIS.