My Picks Go MAD GREEN: Correlation to 1? HIMS, OSCR, ZETA, NBIS, CLSK, MARA, SOFI... Still Cheap?
My Picks Go MAD GREEN: Correlation to 1? HIMS, OSCR, ZETA, NBIS, CLSK, MARA, SOFI... Still Cheap?
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should prioritize Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) and Oscar Health (OSCR) as defensive growth plays, as both remain "dirt cheap" with valuations decoupled from geopolitical risks. Nebius Group (NBIS) is a high-conviction hyper-growth opportunity, currently reacting to a massive $40 billion backlog and projected for 600% growth over the next year. In the software space, Zeta Global (ZETA) stands out as a rare value play trading significantly below the sector average valuation. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Bitcoin miners like CleanSpark (CLSK) are currently moving as high-beta growth assets, offering recovery potential after irrational market sell-offs. Avoid using margin or leveraged ETFs due to high volatility, and consider rotating capital out of "old money" stocks like Walmart and AT&T into these undervalued hyper-growth names.

Detailed Analysis

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

• The speaker identifies as a "HIMS faithful," having held the position since the $5 price point. • The stock saw a significant intraday surge of 8.8% to 10%. • Valuation Metric: Currently trading at an EV/GP/RG (Enterprise Value to Gross Profit divided by Revenue Growth) of 0.08. • Performance: The company has achieved a "Rule of 40" score of 48, indicating strong combined growth and profitability.

Takeaways

Bullish Sentiment: Despite the recent price increase, the speaker considers the stock "dirt cheap" compared to historical valuations in March. • Defensive Growth: Healthcare is viewed as an essential and defensive sector that is decoupled from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.


Oscar Health (OSCR)

• Described as being significantly undervalued, trading at levels 8 to 9 times cheaper than peers like Hims or Nebius. • The speaker expressed disbelief that the stock dropped to the $12 range, stating it is "way too cheap" even at $15.

Takeaways

Price Target Context: The speaker suggests the recent dip to $12 was "unfathomable" and sees the current price as a major buying opportunity. • Sector Strength: Like HIMS, OSCR is highlighted as a defensive play because health services remain a necessity regardless of the macro environment.


Nebius Group (NBIS)

• The stock is finally reacting to massive contract wins, including partnerships with Microsoft and Facebook (Meta). • Backlog: The company reportedly has a backlog exceeding $40 billion, including one specific contract worth $27 billion. • Growth Projections: The speaker uses a "conservative" estimate of 600% growth over the next 12 months. • Valuation: Currently trading at an EV/GP/RG of 0.09.

Takeaways

Lagging Indicator: The market was slow to price in the massive March contracts, but the stock is now starting to "catch up" at the $150 level. • Hyper-Growth: This is positioned as a high-conviction play due to the sheer scale of the backlog relative to its current valuation.


Zeta Global (ZETA)

• Mentioned as one of the few "cheap" stocks within the software sector, alongside Duolingo. • While the software sector average EV/GP/RG is around 0.5, Zeta remains well below that benchmark. • The stock saw a 7% jump as the market realized marketing software is largely unaffected by Middle East macro concerns.

Takeaways

Sector Outlier: Zeta is highlighted as a rare value opportunity in a generally expensive software market.


SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

• The stock rose 5% during the session described. • Valuation: Trading at an EV/GP/RG of 0.21. • The speaker claims the stock had "no business" falling toward the $15 range (likely referring to previous local highs or valuation floors).

Takeaways

Oversold Conditions: SoFi is categorized with other "hyper-growth" stocks that are currently "dirt cheap" due to irrational market sell-offs.


CleanSpark (CLSK) & Marathon Digital (MARA)

CleanSpark rose 7% and Marathon Digital rose 8%. • These gains occurred despite Bitcoin remaining relatively stagnant or recovering slowly from a weekend dip.

Takeaways

Correlation to Growth: These Bitcoin miners are currently trading more in line with "high beta" growth stocks than with the underlying price of Bitcoin itself.


Investment Themes & Sector Insights

The "Correlation to 1" Theory

• The speaker argues that undervalued hyper-growth stocks are currently correlated at one, meaning they all move down together and up together regardless of individual company news. • Risk Warning: Because of this high correlation and volatility, the speaker warns that margin and leveraged ETFs are "very much dangerous."

Macro vs. Fundamentals

Bearish on "Old Money" Stocks: The speaker views the recent runs in Walmart, Costco, and AT&T as "unwarranted" and driven by "old capital flows." • Tech Giants: Apple is described as the most expensive of the "Mag 7" and is viewed with caution. NVIDIA is noted as being so large ("a behemoth") that it is becoming harder to move significantly. • Geopolitical Impact: The speaker suggests the market is becoming "used to" the Middle East tensions, and since these growth companies have no direct links to that region, the "macro madness" sell-off was irrational.

Actionable Summary for Investors

Focus on EV/GP/RG: The speaker heavily relies on this metric to find "dirt cheap" entries in the growth space. • Patience with Volatility: The market is described as a "casino" in the short term; investors should look for "stabilization" where stocks begin moving on individual news rather than macro fear. • Sector Rotation: There is a perceived shift away from defensive "old money" (Walmart/AT&T) back into "hyper-growth" (HIMS/OSCR/NBIS).

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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover how the market's reaction to a tiny change in the producer price again which has let to a nonsensical rotation towards bonds and old world stocks, in my opinion I'm ready for more volatility, but this macro world makes no sense.. Don't get shaken out!.. Today I cover Hims (HIMS stock), Oscar (OSCR stock), Zeta (ZETA stock), Nebius stock (NBIS stock) and CLSK stock (Cleanspark stock) and Marathon (MARA stock) and SoFi stock (SOFI stocK). -- No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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