MSTR Soars Back Above $400 After Massive Bitcoin Buy! The Common ATM is BACK! Why Strategy ACCRETES!
MSTR Soars Back Above $400 After Massive Bitcoin Buy! The Common ATM is BACK! Why Strategy ACCRETES!
YouTube12 min 29 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider MicroStrategy (MSTR) as a leveraged investment in Bitcoin, as the company strategically issues new stock at a premium to acquire more BTC for shareholders. This "At-The-Market" offering is a core part of the investment thesis and is expected to continue as long as the stock's high valuation persists. For an income-focused alternative, explore the company's preferred stocks, which offer varying risk levels, such as the higher-priced STRIKE. More sophisticated investors might also consider BMAX for exposure to MicroStrategy's scarce and potentially valuable convertible notes. The overall strategy provides a consistent source of buying demand for Bitcoin.

Detailed Analysis

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • The podcast celebrates MSTR stock rising back above $400.
  • The primary driver for the stock's recent performance is the company's "At-The-Market" (ATM) stock offering.
  • MicroStrategy recently used the ATM to raise $519 million and purchase nearly 5,000 Bitcoin.
  • The speaker is extremely bullish on the ATM strategy, calling it "accretive".
    • This is because MSTR trades at a significant premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV). The speaker cites a price to NAV ratio of 1.75 to 1.81.
    • The analogy used is "selling a dollar for $1.75." By issuing new stock (the dollar), the company gets cash worth more than the underlying assets per share, which it then uses to buy more Bitcoin, increasing the value for all shareholders (the $1.75).
  • The speaker believes we are in the "common ATM era" for MicroStrategy, where this is the primary and most effective way for the company to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
  • It was noted that some of the money raised from the ATM is used to pay dividends on the company's preferred stocks. The speaker dismisses concerns about this, calling it standard "financial engineering" practiced by many large companies (like Apple and legacy auto in the past) and not a red flag.

Takeaways

  • The core investment thesis for MSTR, according to the speaker, is its ability to use its premium valuation to acquire more Bitcoin in a way that benefits existing shareholders.
  • Investors should view the ATM stock issuance not as simple dilution, but as a strategic tool for growth. As long as MSTR trades at a high premium to its Bitcoin holdings, this strategy is considered highly beneficial.
  • The use of ATM proceeds to fund preferred dividend payments is presented as a normal and pre-planned part of the company's financial strategy, not a sign of distress.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • MicroStrategy's recent purchase of almost 5,000 BTC for approximately $530 million demonstrates continued institutional demand.
  • The speaker notes a pattern of BTC price action where it rises on Sunday night, gets pushed down by market makers on Monday morning, and then recovers in the afternoon.
  • MicroStrategy's entire corporate strategy is focused on acquiring and holding BTC for the long term, using various financial instruments to fund these purchases. The speaker refers to this as generating a "Bitcoin yield" via the ATM.

Takeaways

  • MicroStrategy's aggressive and ongoing purchases provide a consistent source of demand for Bitcoin.
  • For investors bullish on Bitcoin, MSTR is presented as a leveraged way to gain exposure, as the company is actively and continuously increasing its holdings.

MicroStrategy Preferred Stocks (STRIDE, STRIFE, STRIKE)

  • The issuance and demand for MicroStrategy's various preferred stocks are growing.
  • The speaker notes that a "risk curve" is developing, where the different preferreds are priced according to their specific terms and position in the capital structure.
    • STRIDE: Considered the riskiest of the three because the company can skip a dividend payment and it is not cumulative (i.e., they don't have to make it up later). It trades at a lower price.
    • STRIKE: Considered less risky, potentially due to a call option or higher rank, and trades at a higher price (mentioned at 112).
  • The speaker believes that over the long term (perhaps a year or more), these preferreds will become the main way MSTR raises capital, eventually eclipsing the common stock ATM. This will happen as the market becomes more educated on their structure and tax benefits.
  • It is explicitly stated that the dividends for these preferreds are funded by the common stock ATM, which was "always the plan."

Takeaways

  • These preferred stocks represent an alternative way to invest in the MicroStrategy story, potentially offering income (dividends) with varying levels of risk.
  • The speaker sees a long-term opportunity in the preferreds as they are not yet fully understood by the broader market. As awareness grows, their demand and importance to the company's strategy are expected to increase.

MicroStrategy Convertible Notes & BMAX

  • The speaker believes MicroStrategy will not issue any more convertible notes ("converts").
  • This makes the existing convertible notes "very special instruments" because of their scarcity and what the speaker calls a "very, very low" BTC risk profile, making them a "sweet deal" at the time of issuance.
  • The speaker mentions they "like BMAX" because it is a way for investors to get exposure to these now-scarce convertible notes.

Takeaways

  • This is a niche insight for more sophisticated investors.
  • If the speaker is correct, the existing MSTR convertible notes are a finite and potentially valuable asset class.
  • Investors interested in this specific part of the MSTR capital structure might research BMAX, which the speaker suggests is a fund or product that holds these notes.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Common ATM Math Walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UD67EQYV5hA Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover Bitcoin derivative stocks such as Strategy Stock (MSTR stock) and the preferred shares of STRK, STRD, and STRF, and today I especially cover Saylor doubling down on the ATM on the common share of MSTR while simultaneously hitting the preferreds towards the siphoning of the bond market. No Financial Advice!! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
About Beat The Denominator
Beat The Denominator

Beat The Denominator

By @BeatTheDenominator