Going Through the WILDEST Drawdowns Before Friday's Open: Opportunities Galore? (15 Stocks)
Going Through the WILDEST Drawdowns Before Friday's Open: Opportunities Galore? (15 Stocks)
YouTube22 min 17 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Hims & Hers (HIMS) as a buying opportunity after its significant drop, as its new lab testing service is a major growth catalyst. The telehealth company LifeMD (LFMD) is presented as an extremely cheap value play after a nearly 70% drawdown from its highs. As a key supplier for NVIDIA, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is considered a "dirt cheap" way to invest in AI infrastructure following its 45% price decline. In the beaten-down Bitcoin mining sector, Marathon Digital (MARA) is a top pick as it trades at a discount to the value of the Bitcoin it holds. For direct exposure to Bitcoin at a discount, Strategy Development Co. (STRT) is highlighted as a "blue chip" choice, currently trading below the market value of its net assets.

Detailed Analysis

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

  • The stock has experienced a significant drawdown of 42% since October 15th, which the speaker attributes to broader market conditions (macro) rather than company-specific issues.
  • The company's Q3 revenue growth was surprisingly strong, even after losing a significant portion of its GLP-1 (weight loss drug) business.
  • Major Catalyst: HIMS has launched a new lab testing service.
    • Pricing is set at $199/year or $499/year for a more comprehensive panel.
    • This service is likely eligible for Health Savings Accounts (HSA).
    • The speaker believes this is a disruptive move that targets the traditional annual "physical" and lab testing market, which is a primary revenue source for many doctor's offices.
    • It also competes directly with high-end longevity companies that charge thousands of dollars for similar services.
    • The total addressable market is estimated at 300 million people in the U.S.
  • Valuation: The stock is described as an "absolute steal" at current levels, trading at a valuation metric of 0.10 (Enterprise Value / Gross Profit / Revenue Growth), down from 0.15 recently.

Takeaways

  • The speaker is very bullish on HIMS, viewing the recent price drop as a major buying opportunity disconnected from the company's strong performance and promising new ventures.
  • The new lab testing service is seen as a massive growth driver that could disrupt the primary care and longevity markets, significantly expanding the company's reach.
  • Investors may want to look at the current valuation as an attractive entry point, considering the company's growth and new product launch.

LifeMD, Inc. (LFMD)

  • The stock has seen a massive drawdown of nearly 70% from its $15 high. The speaker believes the stock was initially bid up on GLP-1 hype and has since been brought down to a level he considers unprecedentedly cheap.
  • Business Model: Described as being closer to the "Netflix of doctors" than HIMS.
    • Offers a $19/month subscription for unlimited doctor visits.
    • Has its own pharmacy and also allows prescriptions to be filled at local pharmacies.
    • A key difference from HIMS is that LifeMD attempts to work with patient insurance benefits.
  • The speaker refers to LifeMD as "Baby HIMSS" and notes it has a copycat brand (RexMD) that competes directly with HIMS on price, particularly in the erectile dysfunction (ED) market.
  • Valuation: The speaker is shocked by how cheap the stock is, citing a valuation metric of 0.029, which he notes is in the top 5 cheapest stocks he tracks, comparable to Oscar Health (OSCR).

Takeaways

  • The speaker is extremely bullish on LifeMD at these prices, suggesting the market has unfairly punished the stock.
  • The deep discount presents a potential value opportunity for investors who believe in its subscription-based telehealth model.
  • The comparison to HIMS suggests it operates in a similar high-growth space but at a much lower valuation.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

  • The stock is down over 45% from its August highs and 40% from its October highs. The speaker believes the punishment is disconnected from fundamentals.
  • Business Model: SMCI is a key supplier for data centers, specializing in liquid cooling and energy-efficient "green computing" rack systems.
    • They are a key partner for NVIDIA (NVDA), with their racks being co-designed and approved by NVIDIA.
    • Elon Musk's xAI used SMCI for half of the server rack buildout for its "Colossus" supercomputer, with Dell (DELL) supplying the other half.
  • Growth: The company is predicted to grow 43% over the next 12 months, a figure the speaker believes could be too low given NVIDIA's own aggressive growth guidance.
  • Valuation: Described as "dirt cheap" with a valuation metric of 0.22.

Takeaways

  • The speaker is bullish on SMCI, viewing the significant price drop as an opportunity.
  • SMCI is positioned as a critical "picks and shovels" play on the AI and data center boom, directly benefiting from the growth of giants like NVIDIA and xAI.
  • Investors looking for exposure to AI hardware infrastructure, beyond just chip designers, might find SMCI attractive at its current valuation.

Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB)

  • The stock dropped 23% in a single day after reporting earnings that missed revenue estimates by a small margin ($2 million).
  • Business Model: The company operates a portfolio of state-specific websites (like Vegas.com) that provide gambling odds, comparisons, and information. They also have a business selling the data they collect to gambling service providers.
  • Financials & Valuation:
    • The speaker highlights the company's strong profitability, with a 31% EBITDA margin.
    • It is described as "way too cheap," trading at a market cap of $270 million while guiding for $165 million in revenue for full-year 2025.
    • The valuation metric is cited as 0.09.
    • The speaker notes it's trading like a "mall going out of business" despite growing at 21%.

Takeaways

  • The speaker is bullish, believing the market has massively overreacted to a minor earnings miss.
  • The company is presented as a profitable, growing small-cap stock that has been unfairly sold off in a market that is hostile to growth stocks.
  • This could be an opportunity for value-oriented investors looking for profitable growth at a discounted price.

Bitcoin Miners (Sector)

  • The entire sector has experienced a "bloodbath," with most stocks down 40-50% recently. The speaker sees this as a correlated, market-driven sell-off rather than a reflection of individual company problems.
  • Key Theme: A major emerging catalyst is that miners are signing large-scale deals to provide energy and data center capacity to AI "hyperscalers."
    • Cypher Mining (CIFR) signed a $5.5 billion deal with AWS.
    • Applied Digital (APLD), through its "Nebius" brand, signed a $3 billion deal with Meta.
    • The speaker expects similar deals could be announced by CleanSpark (CLSK) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) due to their well-located data centers.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)

  • This is the speaker's "favorite miner."
  • Investment Thesis: The primary appeal is that MARA trades at a discount to the value of the Bitcoin it holds on its balance sheet (specifically, at 85% of its Bitcoin's value). This provides a "margin of safety" and extra exposure to Bitcoin.
  • While its mining rigs are older than competitors', MARA's advantage is its focus on "dispatchable computing"—moving rigs to locations with extremely cheap electricity (e.g., 1 cent per kilowatt-hour from flare gas).
  • The speaker sees "deep value" in the sum of its parts, including data centers acquired in France.

Takeaways

  • The speaker is very bullish on the Bitcoin mining sector, especially after the recent steep drawdowns.
  • The narrative is shifting from pure Bitcoin mining to a hybrid model where miners leverage their energy infrastructure to power the AI boom, creating a new, potentially massive revenue stream.
  • MARA is highlighted as a top pick due to its valuation discount relative to its Bitcoin holdings, offering a unique value proposition.
  • Investors could consider the sector as a leveraged play on both Bitcoin and the growth of AI infrastructure.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies (Sector)

  • This refers to companies whose primary strategy is to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Like the miners, this sector has seen major drawdowns.

Strategy Development Co. (STRT)

  • The stock is down an incredible 54% since July 16th and is now trading below its MNAV (Market value of Net Asset Value).
  • The speaker is very bullish, highlighting that the company has unlocked a new, more efficient way to raise capital by issuing preferred shares at "price to par" instead of diluting common shareholders.

MetaPlanet (MP)

  • The speaker notes that at current discounted levels, Strategy (STRT) is a much more attractive "blue chip" option.
  • He is considering tax-loss harvesting by selling his MetaPlanet position at a loss and moving the capital into the more attractive Strategy. This is a strategy other investors might employ, creating selling pressure.

NACA (NACA)

  • Described as a "catastrophe," down 97% from its peak.
  • It trades at a massive discount of 0.45 MNAV (45% of the value of its assets).
  • Risk Factor: The speaker specifically warns potential investors to research the company's upcoming lockup period expirations, which could introduce a large number of new shares to the market and create selling pressure.

Empery Digital (EMPD)

  • This is a small, obscure company that pivoted from importing golf carts to holding Bitcoin.
  • Investment Thesis: The speaker is intrigued by EMPD because it is "under the radar."
    • It trades at a significant discount, around 0.6 MNAV (60% of its asset value).
    • Because few people know about it, it is not heavily shorted and is much less volatile than its peers. It was down only 1% on a day when the rest of the sector crashed.
    • This could be a strategy for investors seeking exposure to a Bitcoin treasury without the extreme volatility and short-seller pressure seen in more popular names.

Takeaways

  • The Bitcoin treasury sector offers a way to get exposure to Bitcoin, often at a significant discount to the underlying asset's value.
  • Strategy (STRT) is presented as the "blue chip" choice, especially at its current discount.
  • Investors should be aware of specific risks, such as the lockup periods for NACA.
  • Lesser-known companies like EMPD could offer a less volatile way to play this theme, though they may come with their own liquidity risks.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). In this video, I cover the market wide crash following the reopening of the government. I discuss this epic crash, why it makes no sense, and where we saw the biggest drawdowns. For example, I cover HIMS, stock, LifeMD stock (LFMD stock), SMCI stock (SuperMicro stock), OSCR stock (Oscar stock), GAMB stock (Gambling.com stock), RIOT stock, MARA stock, Nebius stock (NBIS stock), CIFR stock (Cipher mining), MNRS stock, MSTR stock (Strategy stock, formerly Microstrategy), MTPLF stock (Metaplanet stock), NAKA stock and EMPD stock! No Financial Advice!! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
About Beat The Denominator
Beat The Denominator

Beat The Denominator

By @BeatTheDenominator