Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
NVIDIA (NVDA) is the preferred large-cap AI chip stock on relative valuation; consider it ahead of AMD and Broadcom, with the upcoming earnings report as the near-term catalyst.
Micron (MU) stands out as a low-valuation way to invest in AI memory demand, though its outlook depends on continued data-center investment.
For higher-risk AI data-center exposure, the speaker favors IREN and Nebius (NBIS) as inexpensive NeoCloud names; weigh Texas policy uncertainty, especially for future projects.
Detailed Analysis
NVIDIA (NVDA)
The speaker considers NVIDIA the best value among the large AI chipmakers, citing an EV/GP/RG figure of 0.3.
They describe NVIDIA as roughly twice as cheap as AMD and about one-third cheaper than Broadcom by this measure.
They view AMD’s strong earnings report as a positive signal ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings, which they said were due the following week.
The speaker was surprised NVIDIA had fallen about 5% over the prior 12 months, despite the company having nearly doubled in size.
NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings were identified as a potential catalyst for an AI-stock rebound.
Takeaways
Within the speaker’s valuation framework, NVDA is their preferred large-cap AI chip stock over AMD and Broadcom.
NVIDIA’s next earnings report was the key near-term event in the discussion; the transcript offers no price target.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
The speaker called AMD’s latest earnings report “blockbuster” and “absolutely outstanding,” but noted the stock was up only 1% after giving back most of its gains.
Despite the results, the speaker considers AMD less attractive than NVIDIA because AMD’s EV/GP/RG valuation is roughly twice NVIDIA’s.
Takeaways
The speaker views AMD’s results as evidence of strong AI demand, but favors NVDA on relative valuation.
The discussion does not include a specific recommendation to buy or sell AMD.
Broadcom (AVGO)
Broadcom was down about 2% on the day discussed.
The speaker considers Broadcom roughly one-third more expensive than NVIDIA by their EV/GP/RG measure and says they have difficulty justifying AMD or Broadcom at those relative valuations.
Takeaways
The speaker’s comparison favors NVDA over AVGO on valuation.
No price target or specific timing was given for Broadcom.
Micron Technology (MU)
Micron fell 7% on the day discussed, while the speaker argued that demand for high-bandwidth memory and DRAM used in AI data centers should continue.
The speaker said Micron’s EV/GP/RG figure was 0.07, calling it the cheapest AI stock outside the NeoCloud group.
They argued that data-center construction could continue in the U.S. or move abroad, and potentially into space in the longer term.
The broader memory group was down about 5% that day.
Takeaways
The speaker sees MU as a particularly inexpensive way to gain exposure to AI-related memory demand.
Their thesis depends on continued data-center and GPU-rack investment; the transcript does not quantify how changes in construction would affect Micron’s business.
SK Hynix
The speaker said SK Hynix has a valuation similar to Micron’s, but that its U.S.-traded ADR carries a premium.
They noted that a memory-sector ETF can hold SK Hynix’s Korean-listed shares, potentially avoiding the ADR premium.
Takeaways
For investors interested in memory exposure, the speaker suggested considering a sector ETF rather than paying the ADR premium directly.
No specific ETF or ticker was named.
Memory-sector ETF
The speaker said memory stocks appeared inexpensive across the board and suggested an ETF as a way to invest in the sector.
They highlighted that a sector ETF could hold SK Hynix’s Korean listing rather than its U.S. ADR.
Takeaways
A memory ETF may offer diversified exposure to the sector and, in the speaker’s view, avoid paying the ADR premium on SK Hynix.
The transcript does not name a specific fund or discuss its fees or holdings in detail.
Nebius (NBIS)
The speaker described Nebius as “super cheap,” with the broader NeoCloud group trading below 0.1 on their valuation measure.
They argued that Nebius’s international operations make it less exposed to Texas data-center policy concerns than the market appeared to assume.
The speaker said Nebius was building and operating data centers in multiple locations, including in the U.S.
Takeaways
The speaker views NBIS as undervalued relative to its data-center growth and international footprint.
The discussion highlights perceived market concern about data-center restrictions, but the speaker believes Nebius is less exposed to the Texas issue.
IREN
IREN fell about 11% on the day discussed. The speaker called it the cheapest NeoCloud stock on their valuation measure.
They said IREN’s Texas operations were grandfathered in and that projects already in progress would not be affected by a possible new moratorium.
The speaker argued that the market was overreacting to the possibility of a broad data-center ban.
Takeaways
The speaker sees IREN as an especially low-valued NeoCloud, while emphasizing that existing Texas projects should be less exposed to proposed restrictions.
Texas data-center policy remains a risk discussed in the transcript, particularly for future projects.
SpaceX (SPCX, as labeled in the episode title)
The speaker grouped SpaceX with NeoCloud companies, saying that most of its revenue over the next year would come from NeoCloud.
They described it as one of the cheapest names in the group and said its data centers were in Tennessee, not Texas.
The transcript treats SpaceX as an investment name but does not discuss how an investor could access it or establish that it is publicly traded.
Takeaways
The speaker’s valuation view is favorable, based on expected NeoCloud revenue and the location of its data centers.
The transcript provides no price target or details on public-market availability.
CoreWeave (CRWV)
CoreWeave was described as “super cheap,” with the NeoCloud group trading below 0.1 on the speaker’s valuation measure.
The speaker said the group’s share-price declines appeared disconnected from fundamentals.
Takeaways
The speaker sees CRWV as inexpensive within the NeoCloud theme, but offers no company-specific operating details or price target in this discussion.
Credo Technology (CRDO)
Credo was presented as a connectivity play focused more on copper than fiber optics, though the speaker said it overlaps with Applied Optoelectronics.
The speaker cited expected sales growth of more than 100% over the next 12 months, an EV/GP/RG figure of 0.22, and a Rule of 40 above 120.
Despite those figures, the speaker said Credo looked expensive relative to NVIDIA and other opportunities.
Takeaways
The transcript points to strong projected growth in AI connectivity, but the speaker prefers NVDA’s relative valuation to CRDO’s.
The growth figure is a forecast cited by the speaker, not a guaranteed outcome.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)
AAOI was described as a fiber-optics connectivity company, with some overlap with Credo.
The speaker cited expected sales growth of 120% over the next 12 months, an EV/GP/RG figure of 0.23, and a Rule of 40 above 120.
AAOI fell about 7% on the day discussed. The speaker considered its valuation less compelling than NVIDIA’s.
Takeaways
AAOI offers exposure to AI-related fiber-optic connectivity, with very high growth expectations cited in the transcript.
The speaker’s comparison suggests looking at NVDA instead if relative valuation is the priority.
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
Marvell was mentioned as a company in the “beyond memory” AI infrastructure group.
The speaker was not persuaded by the valuation of Marvell relative to NVIDIA and the lower valuation figures cited for Credo and AAOI.
Takeaways
The speaker did not express a positive valuation view on MRVL compared with NVIDIA.
No specific valuation figure or recommendation was provided.
Lumentum (LITE)
Lumentum was mentioned as another “beyond memory” AI infrastructure company.
The speaker cited an EV/GP/RG figure of 0.61 and said that valuation made them prefer NVIDIA.
Takeaways
Within the speaker’s comparison, LITE was less attractive than NVDA on valuation.
No price target or specific recommendation was given.
Astera Labs (ALAB)
Astera Labs was included among the AI infrastructure companies the speaker compared with Credo and AAOI.
The speaker was not compelled by its valuation relative to NVIDIA, but gave no specific valuation figure.
Takeaways
The speaker’s comments suggest a preference for NVIDIA over ALAB based on relative valuation.
The transcript provides no company-specific growth forecast or price target for ALAB.
AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin was mentioned as an example of what the speaker considered highly unpredictable market pricing: it was up about 35% while AI infrastructure stocks were falling.
The speaker did not present an investment thesis for AppLovin.
Takeaways
AppLovin was used as a comparison to illustrate the speaker’s view that recent valuations and price moves were disconnected from fundamentals, not as a buy or sell idea.
AI infrastructure and data-center sector
The speaker described continued fear around AI valuations, with semiconductor, memory, NeoCloud, and connectivity stocks falling even after strong company results.
They argued that proposed data-center restrictions did not amount to a blanket ban and would have less effect on projects already underway.
The speaker identified NVIDIA’s next earnings report as the main near-term catalyst they were watching.
Takeaways
The discussion favors AI infrastructure exposure, especially memory and NVIDIA, on the view that demand and data-center construction will continue.
The transcript also identifies policy uncertainty around data-center construction—particularly future projects in Texas—as a risk, while arguing that the market may be overestimating its impact.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator
Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover stocks that are relatively cheap right now such as NVDA stock (Nvidia stock), NBIS stock (Nebius stock), Hims stock, Broadcom stock (AVGO stock) and their earnings, Micron stock (MU stock), IREN stock, SpaceX stock (SPCX stock) and Applied Optoelectronics stock (AAOI) and CRDO stock (Credo stock). The Macro continues to be disappointing. No Financial Advice!
As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.