AI Stocks Still Get No Love? Stubbornly Cheap EV/GP/RG for MU, NBIS, IREN & NVDA (+META?)
AI Stocks Still Get No Love? Stubbornly Cheap EV/GP/RG for MU, NBIS, IREN & NVDA (+META?)
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Micron (MU) is the clearest AI-memory opportunity: strong reported growth, HBM exposure, and long-term contracts support the bullish case, but consider its history of cyclical demand before investing.
  • For AI-compute exposure, IREN appears cheaper than Nebius (NBIS) in the cited metrics (about 9x versus 20x forward EV/EBITDA); both depend on rapid growth forecasts becoming durable demand.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) is the speaker’s preferred large-cap AI stock, considered attractive at the cited $238 price, though no timeframe or independent valuation basis is provided.
  • Meta (META) has rebounded sharply, so the speaker sees less upside after its 36% rally; avoid chasing the move and reassess at a lower entry price.
Detailed Analysis

Micron Technology (MU)

  • The speaker is strongly bullish, arguing that Micron’s blockbuster earnings and guidance have not been reflected in its share price; the stock reportedly rose only 2%–3% after earnings and remained near its pre-report level.
  • The transcript cites 256% year-over-year growth and an analyst forecast of 103% revenue growth for the next period. It also describes very high margins and a low valuation, including an estimated 0.10 EV/GP/RG on the speaker’s metric.
  • The speaker sees Micron as a key beneficiary of growing demand for memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which they describe as a bottleneck for next-generation GPUs. Micron is identified as one of the top three HBM manufacturers, alongside SK Hynix and Samsung.
  • The speaker says Micron has 26 long-term contracts with prepayments, which they believe investors may be overlooking because of the company’s historically cyclical reputation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents MU as a potentially undervalued way to invest in AI-related memory demand, with the speaker emphasizing growth, margins, and long-term contracts.
  • A key question for investors is whether strong AI-driven demand can offset the market’s concern about Micron’s historically cyclical business. The transcript does not establish that the recent growth or margins will persist.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • The speaker views Nebius as a fast-growing “neocloud” provider focused on AI computing, citing 560% forward revenue growth over the next 12 months.
  • Nebius is described as more expensive than IREN on the speaker’s EV/GP/RG measure, while the speaker cites an approximate 20x forward EV/EBITDA for Nebius versus about 9x for IREN.
  • The speaker suggests Nebius may merit a valuation premium because its management team previously led Yandex, but questions whether the premium is justified.
  • A negative analyst downgrade is mentioned as a possible factor weighing on the stock. More broadly, investors are debating whether demand for AI computing will continue to grow or whether the neocloud sector is a bubble.

Takeaways

  • NBIS offers exposure to the potential expansion of AI computing beyond established cloud providers, but its valuation appears higher than IREN’s on some of the metrics discussed.
  • The investment case depends on whether the company can turn its rapid projected growth into durable, contracted demand. The speaker’s growth estimate is a forecast, not a guarantee.

IREN (IREN)

  • The speaker considers IREN cheaper than Nebius across several valuation measures, citing an approximate 9x forward EV/EBITDA versus about 20x for Nebius and 350% forward revenue growth over the next 12 months.
  • IREN is presented as a possible standalone AI-computing provider, alongside Nebius and CoreWeave.
  • The speaker says criticism of IREN’s CEO compensation and sports advertising may reflect investor frustration with recent share-price performance, rather than a change in the company’s business prospects.

Takeaways

  • The discussion frames IREN as a lower-valuation way to invest in the neocloud and AI-compute theme, relative to Nebius.
  • Investors should weigh that valuation argument against the broader uncertainty identified in the transcript: whether AI-compute demand will continue expanding enough to support the sector’s growth expectations.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The speaker says NVIDIA is still the cheapest company in the “Magnificent Seven” on their EV/GP/RG metric, at 0.36, and calls the stock too cheap at $238.
  • They argue that NVIDIA’s central role in AI and the broader industrial economy is not fully reflected in its valuation.
  • The speaker suggests the market may be reluctant to assign NVIDIA a $6 trillion–$8 trillion market capitalization.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s thesis is that NVIDIA remains attractively valued relative to its importance and AI exposure, despite its enormous market capitalization.
  • The valuation debate is central: the speaker sees room for a higher market value, while acknowledging that investors may be hesitant to price the company at several trillion dollars more.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The speaker says Meta’s shares rebounded 36% after falling amid coverage of an SEC filing that referenced a potential $1.3 trillion fine. The transcript does not establish that this amount was an actual expected fine.
  • Meta is assigned a 0.44 EV/GP/RG reading by the speaker, who still considers it somewhat cheap but less appealing after the rebound.
  • The speaker says investors have responded positively to Meta’s consumer AI product, Muse Spark, and describes the shares as overbought after the recent rally.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view shifted from liking META more before its rapid rebound to seeing less upside at the higher post-rally price, while still considering it somewhat undervalued on their metric.
  • The sharp price swings described in the transcript highlight the difficulty of timing purchases or using dollar-cost averaging during volatile periods.

AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO)

  • The speaker says they do not understand why AMD and Broadcom are valued more highly than NVIDIA on their valuation framework.
  • No specific price targets or detailed company-level catalysts are given for either stock.

Takeaways

  • The speaker prefers NVIDIA on relative valuation, but the transcript does not provide enough detail to assess whether the valuation gap is justified by differences in growth, products, or business risk.

AI Infrastructure and Neoclouds

  • The speaker’s broader investment theme is that demand for AI computing could support a group of specialized providers—potentially Nebius, IREN, and CoreWeave—operating as “mini AWS” focused on GPU computing.
  • They question whether existing capacity from Amazon Web Services (AWS) will be sufficient and argue that falling token prices may increase AI usage rather than reduce it, invoking the Jevons paradox.
  • The opposing concern described is that cheaper tokens could signal an AI bubble or lead to lower demand for computing.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity described is investment in AI infrastructure beyond the largest cloud platforms, especially companies able to sell or contract out GPU capacity.
  • The central risk is whether projected demand will materialize and keep capacity utilized. The transcript presents both the bullish demand-expansion argument and the concern that the sector may be overbuilt or overhyped.

Other Company References

  • SK Hynix and Samsung are named as Micron’s competitors in high-bandwidth memory; SK Hynix is described as the leader, with Micron and Samsung as challengers.
  • Amazon / AWS is discussed as an existing source of cloud capacity that may or may not be sufficient for future AI demand.
  • CoreWeave is mentioned as a possible standalone AI-computing provider alongside Nebius and IREN.
  • Hims & Hers (HIMS) is used as a comparison for Micron’s low reading on the speaker’s valuation metric; no separate investment thesis is given.
  • CleanSpark (CLSK) is mentioned only as an example of investors criticizing a CEO’s private-jet use when a stock is performing poorly; no investment view on the company is offered.

Takeaways

  • These references provide context for the AI-memory and AI-computing themes, but the transcript gives no specific recommendation or price target for these companies.

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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover stocks that are relatively cheap right now such as MU stock (Micron stock) and NBIS stock (Nebius stock), IREN stock (IREN stock) and Nvidia stock (NVDA stock).. But not Meta stock, which recouped some losses.. No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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