AI Crash Resumes... Growth Now Even Cheaper! NBIS, SPCX, NVDA, IREN, META, MSTR, BTC (Macro Madness)
AI Crash Resumes... Growth Now Even Cheaper! NBIS, SPCX, NVDA, IREN, META, MSTR, BTC (Macro Madness)
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider accumulating NVIDIA (NVDA) on weakness: the host views its valuation as unusually attractive, but warns broad market volatility could drive further declines.
  • Nebius (NBIS) is a higher-risk neocloud opportunity after its roughly 10% drop and announcement of $3.5 billion in financing; the host sees its valuation as attractive but gave no price target.
  • Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) may offer opportunities after sharp sell-offs, based on the host’s valuation view and confidence in Meta’s AI-related growth; Meta’s capital-spending concerns remain a risk.
  • Treat Strategy (MSTR) as a volatile, amplified Bitcoin exposure, not a lower-risk substitute: Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity and MSTR’s larger swings could deepen losses.
Detailed Analysis

Nebius (NBIS)

  • The host called Nebius one of the most attractive “neocloud” companies and said its valuation had fallen to roughly the same level as CoreWeave’s on his preferred valuation measure. He suggested Nebius might even be cheaper.
  • Nebius announced $3.5 billion in financing. The host described the rate as SOFR plus 2.75 percentage points, or just over 7% at the SOFR rate he cited, and characterized the financing as relatively inexpensive.
  • Despite the financing announcement, he said NBIS fell about 10% on the day, which he attributed to broad market panic rather than a company-specific development.

Takeaways

  • The host sees the sell-off and financing terms as supportive of his bullish view, but his valuation measure and “cheap” assessment are his own. The transcript gives no business-performance forecast or price target.
  • He emphasized that NBIS could still fall further if market-wide volatility continues.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • CoreWeave was used as a valuation comparison for Nebius. The host said NBIS had fallen to a similar valuation—and possibly below it—on his preferred measure.

Takeaways

  • CoreWeave is presented as a reference point for evaluating neocloud valuations, not as a separately discussed investment recommendation.
  • The comparison reflects the host’s view of relative valuation; the transcript does not provide a price target.

SpaceX (SPCX)

  • The host said SpaceX fell as much as 10% during the session and was trading below its level before what he described as strong earnings.
  • He said the market appeared to group SpaceX with hyperscalers and AI-capital-expenditure concerns, despite the company discussing the possibility of installing as much as 20 gigawatts of computing capacity in the future.
  • The host called SpaceX “cheap” and suggested revisiting its earnings report. SpaceX is a private company, so its shares are not generally available on public stock exchanges.

Takeaways

  • The host sees a potential disconnect between SpaceX’s reported results and its market price, but this is a subjective view and the shares may remain volatile.
  • For public-market investors, SpaceX’s private status limits direct access; the transcript does not identify a specific publicly traded proxy.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The host described NVIDIA as the “king of AI” and said its earnings had been strong, yet the stock was swept into a broad sell-off.
  • Using his own valuation measure, he cited a figure of 0.32 for NVIDIA and characterized the stock as unusually cheap.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view is bullish: he sees NVIDIA’s valuation as attractive relative to its growth and AI position.
  • The transcript also stresses that strong company results did not prevent a sharp decline, underscoring the risk of market-wide selling.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta fell more than 7% during the session. The host said investors may have been concerned about capital expenditures, but he argued the company’s AI initiatives could support future revenue.
  • He highlighted the popularity of Meta’s Muse launch and described AI tools for advertising and small businesses as potential growth drivers.
  • He cited a valuation measure of 0.36, which he considered inexpensive, though not as low as NVIDIA’s cited figure.

Takeaways

  • The host is bullish on Meta’s AI-related business opportunities and views the sell-off as potentially disconnected from its prospects.
  • CapEx concerns were specifically raised as a possible reason for the stock’s decline; the transcript does not quantify spending or its expected returns.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon fell about 4.5%. The host said the decline made little sense to him and called Amazon the third-cheapest of the large technology companies on his valuation calculations.

Takeaways

  • The host views the drop as an opportunity based on his valuation framework, but gives no price target or company-specific catalyst.
  • He also cautioned that stocks he considers attractive could become cheaper in a continuing sell-off.

AMD (AMD)

  • AMD fell about 8% in the broad market decline. The host included it among companies with what he sees as strong prospects that were sold off indiscriminately.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests a bullish long-term view of innovative technology companies, but offers no AMD-specific valuation, catalyst, or price target.
  • The host’s broader warning applies: perceived quality did not protect stocks from sharp declines.

Micron (MU)

  • Micron was mentioned as trading around $850. The host questioned the price action but did not provide further company-specific analysis.

Takeaways

  • The transcript does not offer enough detail to infer a specific investment thesis for Micron beyond the host’s general frustration with market volatility.

Strategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The host said Strategy fell about 6% after hours and described its movement that day as roughly 1.5 times Bitcoin’s.
  • He attributed Bitcoin’s nearly 4% decline over 24 hours to adverse macro conditions.
  • He said Strategy’s preferred securities, including “Stretch” (apparently STRC), also sold off. He speculated investors might have sold preferred shares to raise cash to buy other assets during the dip.
  • The host said he did not think Saylor’s buybacks were very helpful. He also expressed the view that “Stretch” could return to 100 once market turmoil subsides; the transcript does not clarify the exact instrument or timing beyond that condition.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents Strategy as a higher-volatility way to gain exposure to Bitcoin, with the host noting its amplified moves relative to BTC.
  • Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity and Strategy’s additional volatility are central risks in the discussion. The host’s 100 level for “Stretch” is a conditional personal view, not a guaranteed outcome or defined timeline.

AI and Neocloud Companies: OpenAI and Anthropic

  • The host said OpenAI reportedly secured a funding round at a $1.25 trillion valuation ahead of a planned IPO.
  • He argued this funding supported the view that very high valuations being assigned to OpenAI and Anthropic were not necessarily implausible, while acknowledging broader market concern about an AI bubble.
  • Both companies were discussed as private businesses, not publicly traded stocks.

Takeaways

  • The host sees private-market funding valuations as evidence that demand and investor interest in AI remain strong.
  • A high private valuation does not establish that a company is fairly valued or that public-market investors will achieve similar returns.

Other Large-Cap and Defensive Stocks

  • The host contrasted declines in innovative and growth-oriented companies with gains in AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Philip Morris (PM), Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA).
  • He presented the moves as evidence of an unusually indiscriminate or illogical market—not as a positive company-specific thesis for these stocks.

Takeaways

  • The comparison highlights a short-term rotation toward companies the host characterized as less exposed to disruption.
  • The transcript does not provide investment recommendations, valuations, or price targets for these companies.

Oil, Bonds, and Interest Rates

  • Oil rose about 4% amid geopolitical comments and concerns discussed in the episode. The host noted that the usual relationships between oil, bond yields, bonds, and stocks appeared to break down during the session.
  • He said the 10-year Treasury yield fell, but Strategy’s preferred securities did not rise as he would normally expect when yields fall.
  • He speculated that investors may have sold those securities to buy other assets, while also suggesting market action could be affected by factors he could not identify.

Takeaways

  • The host’s central macro observation is that recent price action has been unusually unpredictable, weakening confidence in conventional short-term market correlations.
  • The transcript provides no specific trade recommendation or forecast for oil, bonds, or interest rates.

Broad Growth and AI-Market Theme

  • The host argued that many growth and AI-related stocks had become very cheap, while repeatedly warning that they could get cheaper because the sell-off seemed driven by panic and volatility rather than fundamentals.
  • He described sharp declines in companies such as AMD, SpaceX, Amazon, Meta, and NVIDIA, despite what he viewed as strong prospects or results.
  • He also noted that market fears about AI investment and capital spending were weighing on stocks, even as companies continued to report demand and pursue AI initiatives.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a contrarian, growth-oriented perspective: the host sees broad sell-offs as potentially creating opportunities in companies he believes have strong prospects.
  • The key risk identified is that market volatility may persist and push prices lower before fundamentals regain influence.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover stocks that are relatively cheap right now such as NBIS stock (Nebius stock), IREN stock (IREN stock) and MSTR stock (Strategy stock)... as well as NVDA stock, Micron stock (MU stock), SpaceX stock (SPCX stock). Macro continues to be disappointing. No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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