The 45% sell-off in Celsius Holdings (CELH) is viewed as a major overreaction and a buying opportunity, as its fundamental growth remains strong. Similarly, Oddity Tech (ODD) is presented as a high-quality beauty stock that is significantly undervalued after falling 47% on little news. Consider watching Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) for a potential catalyst from a major announcement scheduled for November 13th. For direct exposure to Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is expected to make a large purchase of the cryptocurrency around mid-November. Lastly, the recent pullback in Meta Platforms (META) offers a chance to invest in its highly profitable core business while getting the long-term AR/VR growth potential for free.

Celsius Holdings (CELH)

• The speaker is very bullish on Celsius, viewing the recent sell-off as a significant overreaction and a buying opportunity.
• The stock is down approximately 45% in a short period, trading around $41 at the time of the podcast.
• The sell-off was attributed to a misunderstanding about termination costs for the Alani brand partnership. The speaker clarifies that PepsiCo (PEP), not Celsius, is responsible for these costs.
• Fundamental Strengths:
  • Alani Brand Growth: The recently acquired Alani brand is growing at an impressive 99% per year.
  • Celsius Brand Growth: While reported revenue growth is 44% (due to retailers stocking up), the actual consumer sell-through is around 13%. The overall trend is seen as strongly positive.
  • Market Presence: Celsius products are gaining significant shelf space in stores, often matching or exceeding that of competitors like Red Bull and Monster.
  • Profitability: The company is described as "highly profitable" with an EBITDA margin of 28%.
• Valuation Metrics Mentioned:
  • Enterprise Value / Growth ratio: 0.26
  • Rule of 40: 63 (A score above 40 is generally considered excellent for a software/growth company, indicating a healthy balance of growth and profitability).
  • Predicted next 12-month revenue growth (combined Celsius & Alani): 35%

Takeaways

• The speaker believes the stock is "way overdone" on the downside and is "too cheap" at current levels.
• The market has likely mispriced the stock due to a misunderstanding of the Alani termination costs, creating a potential opportunity for investors who understand the details.
• Strong brand momentum, rapid growth from the Alani acquisition, and increasing retail presence are key bullish factors.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

• The speaker is bullish and expresses confusion over the stock's recent decline, especially after a strong Q3 earnings report.
• The stock is down 34% from its post-earnings high.
• Positive Developments:
  • Strong Q3: Revenue growth was better than expected and outpaced previous quarters, even after losing a major partnership with Novo Nordisk for GLP-1 drugs in Q2.
  • Potential Partnership Renewal: The company is back in conversation with Novo Nordisk, suggesting branded GLP-1 drugs could return.
  • New Product Lines: The launch of treatments for testosterone and menopause are expected to be "big hits" in large markets.
  • Upcoming Event: A "big announcement" is scheduled for November 13th, which the speaker speculates could be related to peptides and act as a catalyst for the stock.
• Valuation: The speaker questions the fairness of a sub-$10 billion market cap for a company with $2.2 billion in revenue and high margins.

Takeaways

• The speaker sees a disconnect between the company's strong performance and its stock price, suggesting it may be undervalued.
• The upcoming announcement on November 13th is a key event for investors to watch.
• The potential return of the Novo partnership and the growth of new product lines in testosterone and menopause are significant potential growth drivers.

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)

• The speaker views the stock as a potential "deal" after a significant drop, though they personally prefer its competitor, Oddity.
• The stock has experienced extreme volatility, having fallen 50% in less than 30 days.
• The market appears to be concerned about the impact of tariffs and a slightly weakened growth outlook. The speaker believes these fears are overblown.
• A key positive mentioned is that growth from its "road" acquisition (40% year-over-year) is a good sign of successful M&A strategy.

Takeaways

• For investors looking for a volatile growth name in the beauty sector, the recent 50% drop could present a buying opportunity.
• The speaker suggests the market has overreacted to concerns about tariffs and guidance, creating potential value.

Oddity Tech (ODD)

• This is the speaker's preferred stock in the beauty sector over e.l.f. Beauty.
• The stock is down 47% over the last 90 days on what the speaker describes as "essentially no news."
• Key Strengths:
  • Performance: Had a "stunning" Q2 earnings report and is launching a third major brand by the end of the year.
  • Business Model: Utilizes AI for product matching (e.g., foundation color matching), which makes the product "stickier" for consumers. It is also a direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand, which can lead to higher margins.
  • Financials: Consistently exceeds its targets of 20% revenue growth and 20% EBITDA margin.
• Comparison to e.l.f. Beauty (ELF):
  • Valuation: Oddity is described as having a cheaper valuation (0.14 ratio mentioned).
  • Profitability: Oddity is "much more profitable" with a 29% margin.
  • Growth: Oddity is growing slightly faster than ELF.

Takeaways

• The speaker believes Oddity is a high-quality, fast-growing, and profitable company that gets "no respect from Mr. Market," suggesting it is significantly undervalued.
• The innovative use of AI and a direct-to-consumer model are seen as key competitive advantages.
• For investors choosing between beauty stocks, the speaker makes a strong case that Oddity is superior to ELF based on valuation, profitability, and growth.

Kaspi.kz (KSPI)

• The speaker is bullish on this "super app" from Kazakhstan, which has been "flying under the radar."
• The stock is down 46% over the past year.
• Business Overview:
  • Dominates its home market with nearly 100% market share in banking, fintech, and e-commerce.
  • Uniquely handles government services, effectively acting as the country's DMV.
  • Expansion: It is expanding into Turkey, a market four times larger than Kazakhstan, where a dominant super app does not yet exist.
• Financial Metrics:
  • Predicted next 12-month revenue growth: 22%
  • Rule of 40: 89 (described as "stunning")
  • EBITDA Margin: 67% (compared to margins seen at companies like Visa or NVIDIA)

Takeaways

• Kaspi is presented as a deeply undervalued international growth opportunity with a dominant market position and a massive expansion plan.
• Its extremely high profitability and Rule of 40 score suggest it is a very high-quality business.
• The expansion into Turkey is the key future growth catalyst for investors to monitor.

Meta Platforms (META)

• The speaker is bullish, viewing the stock as cheap after a recent pullback.
• The stock is down 17% in nine days.
• Investment Thesis:
  • Valuation: Called the "cheapest MAC 7" stock (referring to the "Magnificent Seven" large-cap tech stocks).
  • Core Business: The speaker believes heavy investment in AI will make its platforms, particularly Instagram, "a whole lot more addictive," driving engagement and revenue.
  • The "Free Option": The primary reason to buy Meta, according to the speaker, is its leadership in the next potential computing platform: AR/VR glasses. At its current price, an investor gets the potential upside from this massive, world-changing opportunity for "free."
• Financials:
  • Grows revenue at 20% from a massive $189 billion sales base.
  • Highly profitable with a 52% EBITDA margin.
  • Rule of 40: 72

Takeaways

• The recent drop is seen as a buying opportunity in a high-quality, fast-growing, and very profitable tech giant.
• The long-term investment case is not just about social media, but about the potential for Meta to own the next major computing platform with its AR/VR technology. This is presented as a high-upside "call option" included in the current stock price.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The speaker is bullish on MicroStrategy as a premier, "blue chip" way to gain exposure to Bitcoin.
• The stock's movement is directly tied to the price of Bitcoin.
• Recent Developments:
  • The company successfully raised $715 million through an offering in Europe.
  • This cash is expected to be used for a "big buy" of Bitcoin. The funds are expected to settle around November 13th, with a purchase potentially happening the following week.
• Competitive Advantage:
  • While the company's Net Asset Value (MNAV) has seen a "slow bleed," it has performed much better than other Bitcoin treasury companies that have had "catastrophic drops."

Takeaways

• MicroStrategy is presented as the safest and most reliable stock for investors who want to bet on the price of Bitcoin.
• A significant purchase of Bitcoin by the company is anticipated around mid-November, which could be a positive catalyst for both Bitcoin and MSTR's stock price.
• The investment's success is entirely dependent on the price of Bitcoin and a return of "excitement" to the crypto space.