Consider the recent drop in Oscar Health (OSCR) to around $13 as a buying opportunity, as its strong growth and low valuation may outweigh political headline risks. For a long-term holding, Nubank (NU) is presented as a "coiled spring" whose stock price has not yet reflected its massive customer and revenue growth in Latin America. Invest in The Real Brokerage (REAX) as a high-growth, tech-focused way to benefit from an eventual recovery in the U.S. housing market. The recent Bitcoin dip presents an opportunity in treasury stocks like Japan's MetaPlanet, which

Oscar Health (OSCR)

• The stock has seen a significant drop from recent highs of $17-$18 down to around $13.
• The decline is attributed to a series of downgrades from major banks and negative market sentiment regarding potential cuts to government healthcare programs, specifically the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies.
• The host believes this is "noise" for long-term investors, as the company's financial guidance already assumed these subsidies would not be renewed.
• Fundamental Strengths:
  • The company has grown its revenue by 10x in approximately four to five years.
  • Revenue growth over the past 12 months was 42%.
  • The business model uses technology to lower its medical loss ratio (the ratio of premiums collected to claims paid out), which is key to its profitability.
• Valuation:
  • The stock is described as "too cheap" and trading at a fraction of its forward revenue.
  • Based on the host's "enterprise value over gross profit over revenue growth" metric, it's trading at 0.016, the second-cheapest stock ever found by the host.
• Potential Catalyst:
  • Cuts to Medicaid could be a net positive for Oscar. Individuals who lose Medicaid coverage may turn to the ACA marketplace for insurance, potentially increasing Oscar's customer base.

Takeaways

• The investment thesis for OSCR is a pure valuation play. The stock is considered extremely undervalued based on its historical and projected growth.
• Investors should be aware that the business is sensitive to political changes regarding the ACA, which is a primary risk factor. However, the host believes this risk is more than priced into the current stock price.
• The drop to $13 is presented as a buying opportunity for those who can tolerate the political risk and focus on the company's strong growth and low valuation.

Nubank (NU)

• Described as the "Sofi of Latin America," it is the leading neobank in Brazil and is expanding into other Latin American countries, recently acquiring a banking license in Mexico.
• The stock price has remained flat, essentially at its IPO price, for several years.
• This price stagnation has occurred despite strong fundamental growth:
  • Customer base has grown to 119 million.
  • Average revenue per user has been growing at a "nice clip."
• The host dismisses the Brazil-US currency exchange rate as a reason for the flat stock price, noting the rate has been stable since the IPO.

Takeaways

• NU is presented as a "coiled spring" and a "sleep-well-at-night stock." The thesis is that the market has not yet priced in the company's significant growth in customers and revenue.
• The stock is considered a value play, with the expectation that its price will eventually "pop" to reflect its underlying business performance.
• This is a long-term investment idea based on the disconnect between the company's growth and its stock price.

The Real Brokerage (REAX)

• This investment is framed as a bet on the eventual recovery of the U.S. housing market.
• The host anticipates a housing market rebound when the Federal Reserve eventually lowers interest rates under new leadership.
• Business Model Strengths:
  • It's a tech-focused brokerage that uses an app with low fixed operational costs.
  • It attracts top-performing real estate agents from traditional firms by offering better incentives, such as company stock and a smaller commission cut.
  • The company has successfully grown its revenue, agent count, and transaction volume despite a multi-year downturn in the overall real estate market.
• Financial Health:
  • The company is EBITDA profitable.
  • The host projects 45% forward revenue growth.
  • While its gross margin is low at 9%, this is typical for the real estate brokerage industry.
  • The company is expanding into higher-margin ancillary services like title insurance.

Takeaways

• REAX is positioned as a high-growth, tech-enabled way to invest in the recovery of the housing market.
• Its ability to grow market share during a difficult period is a key indicator of a strong business model and competitive advantage.
• The investment is a bet that when interest rates fall and the housing market recovers, REAX will be a primary beneficiary due to its scalable, agent-friendly platform.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Treasury Stocks

• A recent drop in the price of Bitcoin is viewed as a buying opportunity, particularly for companies that hold BTC on their balance sheets.
• The host emphasizes a long-term holding period for any Bitcoin-related asset, quoting Michael Saylor: "if you don't want to own anything Bitcoin related for more than four years, you shouldn't own it at all."

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The stock was down 6% on the day, a larger drop than Bitcoin itself.
• This is interpreted as a bullish sign. The host believes the company was using its At-The-Market (ATM) offering to sell stock and raise cash while the price was high (at a nearly 1.7x price-to-NAV).
• This cash is expected to be used for a large Bitcoin purchase, likely to be announced soon.

Takeaways

• The recent price drop in MSTR is not seen as a cause for concern but rather as the company actively executing its strategy of acquiring more Bitcoin. For long-term shareholders, this is considered a positive development.

MetaPlanet (Japanese Stock)

• A Japanese Bitcoin treasury company that has been acquiring Bitcoin at a much faster pace than MicroStrategy.
• It is currently trading at a 3x price-to-NAV (Net Asset Value), which is described as "very fair" and as cheap as it has been in recent months.
• Unique Advantage: Operating in the Japanese market is a major plus. Japanese investors are "yield starved" and face tax complications when buying Bitcoin directly, making MetaPlanet an attractive and accessible alternative. This could justify a higher valuation in the future.

Takeaways

• MetaPlanet offers an interesting international play on Bitcoin with a potential "multiple expansion opportunity."
• Its current 3x price-to-NAV valuation is considered an attractive entry point, given its rapid Bitcoin acquisition and unique position within the Japanese market.

Smarter Web (UK Stock)

• Described as the "fastest horse" among public companies holding over 1,000 Bitcoin, meaning it is acquiring BTC at the fastest rate.
• The company recently completed a capital raise of approximately £17 million to fund further Bitcoin purchases.
• Its price-to-NAV multiple is currently 5x, which is considered cheap relative to its recent history since May.

Takeaways

• Smarter Web is the most aggressive and fastest-growing Bitcoin treasury play discussed.
• While the extreme growth in its Bitcoin holdings will eventually slow, its current 5x price-to-NAV is presented as a relatively low valuation compared to recent weeks, offering a potential entry point for investors seeking high-beta exposure to Bitcoin.