Investors should consider TransMedics Group (TMDX) as a high-conviction buy following its 50% price drop to the $60s, as the company maintains a strong 25% growth target and a path to 10,000 transplants by 2028. Celsius Holdings (CELH) offers a deep-value opportunity near $29 with an attractive EV/GP/RG of 0.13, especially as it neutralizes competition through the Alani acquisition and expands internationally. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is currently undervalued at $30, with significant upside potential from the Eucalyptus acquisition and the rollout of branded GLP-1 weight loss medications. Focus on these "brutalized" growth stocks where temporary margin pressures or minor earnings misses have created entry points at significant discounts to their historical valuations. Avoid short-term options volatility around earnings and instead build positions in these names to capture long-term market share gains in medical innovation and specialized consumer goods.

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

• The stock price experienced a drastic decline, falling from the $140s to the $60s (roughly a 50% drop) following a one-cent earnings miss. • The market reacted negatively to increased R&D costs associated with the development of a cold storage solution for an upcoming heart transplant trial. • Management reiterated long-term guidance of 10,000 transplants by 2028 and maintained a 25% growth target for 2026. • The company is showing strong operating leverage and is currently profitable ("making money"). • Key growth drivers include international expansion, expansion into new organ types, and a founder-led management team. • The speaker notes a "driving season" seasonality where transplant volumes typically increase during specific quarters.

Takeaways

• Buying Opportunity: The speaker views the drop to the $60s as "pretty darn interesting" compared to when it was expensive in the $140s. • Valuation Metric: The stock currently trades at an EV/GP/RG (Enterprise Value over Gross Profit over Revenue Growth) of 0.26. • Ignore Short-term Noise: The move into cold storage is viewed as a strategic necessity for clinical trials and short-distance transplants, rather than a failure of their existing platform.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)

• The stock has been "brutalized" by short-term concerns from analysts regarding aluminum and fuel costs. • The stock is down approximately 70% from its highs a year and a half ago, recently trading around $29. • Analysts are focused on temporary margin pressures in the Midwest (due to weather/logistics) rather than long-term growth. • The company has $200 million authorized for stock buybacks. • Growth is being driven by international expansion (Spain, Portugal) and the acquisition of the Alani brand, which was previously a major competitor. • Management expects the Celsius brand to pick up during the summer season with new product launches like "Electric Vibe" and soccer-related marketing.

Takeaways

• Market Share Gains: Focus on the fact that Celsius is taking market share and has neutralized a major threat by acquiring Alani. • Valuation Metric: The stock trades at an EV/GP/RG of 0.13, which the speaker considers very low for the growth provided. • Temporary Pressures: Rising aluminum and crude prices are viewed as cyclical; the speaker suggests the company can offset these via small price increases at the point of sale.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

• The stock is currently trading around $30, which the speaker claims is "too cheap" and represents a 43% discount from previous levels despite the business being "healthier and better." • The market has not yet priced in the impact of the Eucalyptus acquisition or the addition of branded GLP-1s (specifically Eli Lilly products). • The speaker believes current financial guidance is "heavily sandbagged" (understated) because it doesn't include these new revenue streams. • Future catalysts include the potential approval and sale of peptides (BPC-157, TB-500) and the use of their CS Bio facility in California.

Takeaways

• Volatility Warning: The speaker expects a "very large move" following the earnings report but advises against playing the direction with options due to market unpredictability. • Valuation Metric: The stock has an EV/GP/RG of 0.11, the lowest of the three stocks discussed. • Key Watch Items: Investors should look for updated 2030 outlooks and commentary regarding AI integration and the GLP-1 rollout strategy.

Investment Themes & Sectors

High-Growth "Brutalized" Stocks

• The overarching theme is the "nonsensical" price action in high-growth companies where minor earnings misses or temporary margin compressions lead to 50%+ sell-offs.

Medical Innovation & Weight Loss

• There is a heavy focus on the GLP-1 (weight loss) and transplant technology sectors. The speaker is highly bullish on the integration of specialized pharmacy services and biotech logistics.

Analyst Short-Sightedness

• A recurring sentiment is that Wall Street analysts are too focused on quarterly commodity costs (aluminum, fuel) and are missing the "weighing machine" effect of long-term revenue growth and market share dominance.