3 Can't Miss Stock Deals for Black Friday! Hyper Growth + Super Cheap: HIMS, ODD & NBIS.
3 Can't Miss Stock Deals for Black Friday! Hyper Growth + Super Cheap: HIMS, ODD & NBIS.
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Nebius (NBIS), an AI infrastructure provider projected to grow revenue over 1,000% in the next 12 months. The company has secured massive deals with Microsoft and Meta, yet trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of just 2.5, making it appear "ridiculously cheap." Another high-conviction opportunity is Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), which is viewed as an "insane steal" at its current price, down roughly 50% from recent highs. Management supports this view with a $250 million share repurchase program, backed by strong recurring revenue and customer growth. Similarly, AI-driven beauty company Oddity Tech (ODD) is described as "dirt cheap" and presents a comparable deep-value growth opportunity.

Detailed Analysis

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

  • The speaker is extremely bullish on HIMS, calling it an "insane steal" at its current valuation, despite an 18% rebound from its November lows. The stock is still down approximately 50% from its recent highs.
  • The company's management appears to agree with the undervaluation thesis, as they have authorized a $250 million share repurchase program.
  • Strong Growth & Resilience:
    • The business has shown outstanding revenue growth and quickly recovered in Q3 after the termination of a GLP-1 partnership with Novo Nordisk, an event many expected would take multiple quarters to overcome.
    • Subscriber numbers are growing steadily (21% year-over-year), and revenue per subscriber is also increasing, indicating successful cross-selling on the platform which now has 2.5 million customers.
  • Disruptive Business Model:
    • Technology-Driven: HIMS uses AI to provide prescription recommendations to its 2,000+ providers. The long-term vision is that AI could handle prescriptions directly, which would dramatically increase profit margins.
    • Digital First: The company is positioned as a digital pharmacy with a bundled digital doctor, disrupting the traditional model where patients pay separately for a doctor visit that may not result in treatment.
    • No Insurance: By not accepting insurance, HIMS saves significantly on administrative costs and can operate with much greater speed and agility than competitors.
  • Financial Health & Valuation:
    • The speaker views the stock as "way too cheap" on both traditional metrics (like Price-to-EBITDA) and their proprietary growth-adjusted metric.
    • The company has a Rule of 40 score of 60, which is more typical of a high-growth SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) company.
    • Over 90% of its revenue is recurring, and the product is considered "sticky" because the medications are customized for each patient using technology.

Takeaways

  • HIMS is presented as a long-term investment opportunity in the disruptive digital health space, combining a digital pharmacy, telehealth, and AI.
  • The current stock price is seen as a significant discount, offering a potential entry point for investors who believe in the company's growth story and disruptive model.
  • Key strengths to consider are its strong recurring revenue, high growth, improving operational efficiency, and a business model that cuts out traditional healthcare inefficiencies like insurance administration.

Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD)

  • The speaker is very bullish on ODD, positioning it as a superior investment to e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) due to its direct-to-consumer (DTC) model, which avoids sharing margins with retailers like Target and Walmart.
  • ODD is described as an "appearance company" that leverages technology and AI to create highly personalized and "sticky" beauty and wellness products.
  • Key Brands & Technology:
    • Il Makiage: Uses AI and face-scanning technology to create custom-matched foundation, solving a major customer pain point and driving recurring sales.
    • Spoil Child: An anti-aging and wellness brand that uses AI to formulate customized collagen and peptide solutions for skin and hair.
    • Methodic: A newly launched brand for online prescription dermatology that uses face-scanning and AI to create personalized creams for various skin conditions.
  • Valuation & Market Performance:
    • The stock is described as "dirt cheap," with valuation metrics similar to HIMS.
    • Like HIMS, the stock is down approximately 50% from its recent highs and has bounced 18.26% from its recent low. The speaker notes this identical performance suggests the market is trading these stocks as a "basket" without appreciating their individual strengths.
  • The company is highly effective at marketing, particularly through social media influencers on platforms like Instagram.

Takeaways

  • ODD represents an opportunity to invest in the convergence of technology, AI, and the beauty industry.
  • Its DTC model provides high margins and direct control over the customer relationship, which is a significant competitive advantage.
  • The stock's recent pullback could be an attractive entry point for investors looking for a high-growth, tech-focused consumer brand that is disrupting a massive market. The thesis is that the market is currently undervaluing its AI-driven, personalized approach.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • The speaker is incredibly bullish on this company, which they identify as the "AI on the backhand"—the core infrastructure provider enabling the AI revolution.
  • Despite recent negative market sentiment, the company has secured massive, game-changing deals:
    • A $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft.
    • A $3 billion deal with Meta, which the speaker claims went largely unnoticed by the market.
  • Explosive Growth & Valuation:
    • The company is projected to grow revenue from ~$500 million to ~$8 billion over the next 12 months, representing growth of over 1,000%.
    • Due to this massive growth, the speaker considers the stock "ridiculously cheap" on a forward-looking basis, with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.5.
  • Risk Factors Mentioned:
    • The market is reportedly concerned about how the company will finance the massive capital expenditure required to buy GPUs for its build-out.
    • The speaker dismisses this concern, stating the company can use asset-backed debt, pledging the GPUs themselves as collateral. This is a common financing method in the industry.
  • Hidden Assets:
    • The company owns AVRide, an autonomous ride-sharing service set to launch in Dallas, which could be valued as a standalone competitor to Waymo or Tesla's efforts.
    • It holds a 28% equity stake in ClickHouse, a database technology company described as a competitor to Snowflake and Databricks.
  • The management team consists of the former leadership of Yandex ("the Google of Russia"), bringing significant experience and industry relationships.

Takeaways

  • This is presented as a high-risk, high-reward investment in the fundamental infrastructure of the AI industry.
  • The investment thesis is based on the company's massive, secured contracts with tech giants and the belief that the market is overly focused on short-term financing risks while ignoring the explosive forward growth.
  • The stock is highly volatile and narrative-driven. Investors should be aware of the risks but may find the valuation compelling given the growth projections and the value of its other assets like AVRide and its stake in ClickHouse.
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Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). In this video, I cover the broad market crash that impacted growth stocks today such as Nebius stock (NBIS stock), HIMS stock, and and Oddity tech stock (ODD stock)! No Financial Advice!! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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