21k Subs Q&A: Best MSTR Preferred, Real Estate, Rebalancing, Stock Buckets, SMTI/EOS, Lynch & French
21k Subs Q&A: Best MSTR Preferred, Real Estate, Rebalancing, Stock Buckets, SMTI/EOS, Lynch & French
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

For lower-volatility exposure to Bitcoin, consider MicroStrategy's preferred shares Strike (STRK), which offer a 7.3% yield and convertibility to MSTR common stock. The high-growth telehealth company Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is viewed as an extremely compelling long-term investment. MicroStrategy (MSTR) itself is presented as a core "forever hold" to gain exposure to Bitcoin and as a hedge against currency devaluation. In the medical technology space, Delcath (DCTH) and CorMedix (CRMD) are highlighted as potentially better opportunities than Sanara MedTech (SMTI) due to higher growth. Despite recent weakness, Tesla (TSLA) is considered a core, high-quality holding that is expected to perform well over the long run.

Detailed Analysis

Investment Strategy Overview

The podcast host categorizes their investments into three distinct "buckets," each with a different goal and valuation approach.

  • Bucket 1: Cheap Hyper-Growth:
    • Focuses on companies with very high revenue growth (minimum 30% per year) that are also trading at very cheap valuations.
    • The primary valuation metric used is a modified PEG ratio: Enterprise Value / Gross Profit / Revenue Growth (EV/GP/RG).
    • The investment thesis relies on both the company's fundamental growth and the potential for multiple expansion (the market valuing the company more richly in the future).
  • Bucket 2: Debasement Plays:
    • These are investments designed to protect against the devaluation of fiat currencies (like the US dollar).
    • The primary examples are Bitcoin Treasury Companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR).
    • The key metric is not revenue growth, but the growth of the company's asset holdings (e.g., how much Bitcoin they own). The goal is for the company to continuously increase its holdings of the "hardest asset."
  • Bucket 3: Highest Quality Growth:
    • This bucket contains what the host considers the highest quality companies, purchased regardless of their valuation.
    • Examples include Tesla (TSLA), Palantir (PLTR), and Robinhood (HOOD).
    • The thesis is that truly great companies can remain "expensive" for decades while still providing massive returns, similar to Amazon's historical performance. The risk is that a high starting valuation (multiple compression) could limit returns.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • This is the host's primary "debasement play" and a core holding.
  • The host is extremely bullish and states, "I'm never selling MSTR." It is considered a forever hold.
  • For investors who bought in early and have significant gains (e.g., 20x), the host believes selling is not a viable option due to the massive tax bill it would trigger.

Takeaways

  • MSTR is viewed as a long-term, conviction holding for Bitcoin exposure and as a hedge against currency debasement.
  • For long-term holders with large unrealized gains, the tax implications of selling are a major factor, reinforcing a "hold forever" strategy.

Strike (STRK) - MicroStrategy Preferred Shares

  • The host considers STRK to be the "best" of the MicroStrategy preferred shares for those seeking lower volatility than the common stock while retaining upside.
  • It offers a 7.3% yield, which is considered sufficient.
  • The key feature is its convertibility: 10 shares of Strike (STRK) will eventually convert into one share of MSTR. This allows holders to capture the upside in MSTR's common stock price.
  • The host speculates that if MSTR common stock rises above $1,000 per share, STRK should trade at one-tenth of the MSTR price plus a premium for its yield.
  • There is also potential for STRK's price to increase if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, as its fixed yield would become more attractive.

Takeaways

  • STRK could be an attractive option for investors who want exposure to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy but with a lower-volatility profile and a steady yield.
  • The conversion feature provides a direct link to the potential upside of MSTR common stock, making it more than just a fixed-income-like investment.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Bitcoin Treasury Companies

  • The host is extremely bullish on Bitcoin and the companies that hold it on their balance sheets.
  • These companies, like MetaPlanet (MTPLF) and Cooler, are valued based on the growth of their Bitcoin holdings, not traditional business metrics like revenue.
  • The host believes that the market value of these companies will not trade below their Net Asset Value (NAV) of Bitcoin for long. He uses Marathon Digital (MARA) as an example, noting it rarely trades below a 1x MNAV, which acts as a rising price floor as the price of Bitcoin increases.
  • Even if these stocks are down, the host is confident in holding them, believing that a rising Bitcoin price will "lift all boats."

Takeaways

  • Investing in Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a direct bet on the price of Bitcoin.
  • The primary metric to watch is the company's "MNAV" (Market value to Net Asset Value). A low MNAV might represent a buying opportunity, while a high MNAV introduces risk.
  • The host's conviction is very high for the long term, suggesting a "buy and hold" strategy is appropriate for these assets, as long as they are not purchased with leverage or as short-term options.

Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) & Other Crypto Treasury Companies

  • The host is open to the idea of companies holding other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL) on their balance sheets.
  • He mentions SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and BitNile Metaverse (BNMR) as examples of ETH treasury companies. He slightly prefers SBET because it is less hyped than BNMR.
  • The host believes that as the Bitcoin cycle matures, money may rotate from Bitcoin to ETH and then to other, riskier altcoins.
  • However, his conviction is much lower for these companies compared to Bitcoin treasury companies.

Takeaways

  • While Bitcoin treasury companies are a "forever hold" for the host, ETH and SOL treasury companies are not. He is leaning towards "no" on holding them for the long term.
  • These are considered more speculative plays that might benefit from a crypto bull market rotation, but they do not have the same "hard asset" thesis as Bitcoin companies in the host's view.

High-Quality Growth Stocks

This section covers stocks in the host's third bucket, bought for their business quality regardless of price.

Palantir (PLTR) & Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The host is up more than 10x on both stocks and considers himself "stuck" with them due to the large tax bill that selling would create.
  • He does not consider them a "buy" at current levels, viewing them as "too expensive."
  • However, he emphasizes that great companies can stay expensive for a long time and still generate significant returns.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

  • The host is extremely bullish on HIMS.
  • He describes the stock as "extremely, extremely compelling" and "nearly a buy" even at a price near $50.
  • Like PLTR and HOOD, he has large gains and would not sell, but his current sentiment is much more positive on its valuation.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • A core holding in the "highest quality" bucket.
  • Despite recent underperformance, the host believes it's "going to work really well" in the long run.

Takeaways

  • For big winners like PLTR and HOOD, the "Tin Can Strategy" (buy and hold indefinitely) is preferred, partly to defer taxes. The unlocked margin from these large positions can be used for other investments.
  • HIMS is viewed as a high-conviction holding with a more attractive valuation currently compared to PLTR and HOOD.
  • TSLA is a long-term conviction play based on the quality of the business, despite short-term price weakness.

Sanara MedTech (SMTI)

  • This medical technology stock was suggested by a listener.
  • On the host's key metric, EV/GP/RG, it scores a 0.13, which is "pretty good."
  • However, its revenue growth of 25% is not considered compelling enough when compared to other stocks in the same sector.
  • The host compares it to Delcath (DCTH) and CorMedix (CRMD), which have much higher predicted growth (120%-180%) and appear cheaper on his metric (0.03-0.04).

Takeaways

  • SMTI is considered a "hold" but not a buy at this time.
  • The analysis highlights the importance of comparing a stock not just on its own merits, but against its direct peers. In the biotech/pharma space, there appear to be cheaper and faster-growing alternatives.

EOS Energy Enterprises (EOSE)

  • The host is bearish on EOSE at its current price, stating, "I feel like I missed it" after the stock ran up nearly 4x in one year.
  • The primary concern is valuation. It trades at an Enterprise Value to Sales ratio of 74x, which the host considers far too expensive, even with a projected 200% forward revenue growth.
  • Other red flags mentioned are a lot of debt and spotty, unpredictable revenue.

Takeaways

  • EOSE is considered too expensive and risky to buy now. The host would only become interested if the valuation fell dramatically to a 5-10x price-to-sales multiple.
  • This serves as a lesson in avoiding chasing "hype stocks" that have already had a massive price run-up, especially when the valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals.

Real Estate

  • The host's perspective on real estate has become more negative. He now views owning a home primarily as an expense, not an investment.
  • He believes high mortgage rates are political and will take years to come down, suppressing demand.
  • The primary drivers of his negative view are the ever-increasing costs of taxation, insurance, and maintenance, which are all tied to the size of the house. He notes the cost of roof replacement has tripled in five years.

Takeaways

  • The host's preferred real estate strategy is to own a small house on a large lot.
  • The rationale is to minimize the expensive, depreciating part of the asset (the structure) while maximizing the part that holds value better (the land). This strategy aims to drastically reduce ongoing costs like taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
  • Renting is viewed as a very compelling alternative in the current market.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator In this No Financial Advice video, I answer my Patreon members' questions about stocks and more. This is no financial advice. 0:00 Intro 0:24 My 3 investing buckets: Cheap Hyper Growth, Debasement Plays, Highest quality regardless of valuation 4:48 How to judge a stock -- SMTI stock -- relative to Biotech beers 7:42 What's my favorite MSTR preferred stock? STRK? STRD? STRF? STRC? My favorite and why 10:49 Do I ever rebalance? What happens when I'm done with a position? tax, margin, buy-borrow-die 15:57 What's the plan with BTC treasuries like Metaplanet? What about ETH treasury companies? SOL treasuries? 20:54 EOS stock - Did I miss it? Am I too late? How expensive is it? 24:15 My views on Real Estate: Deep dive... Is a small house, expensive lot, optimal? 33:05 What do I think about Peter Lynch? 34:57 Can I speak French? 35:38 Thanks for watching! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY .
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