10Yr Breaks 5.13%.. Macro HURTS Growth Again.. Opportunity? HIMS NBIS SOFI REAX Z OPEN MSTR STRC BTC
10Yr Breaks 5.13%.. Macro HURTS Growth Again.. Opportunity? HIMS NBIS SOFI REAX Z OPEN MSTR STRC BTC
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider U.S. 10-Year Treasuries yielding around 5% as a potential alternative to riskier growth stocks, while recognizing that yields may rise further.
  • Be cautious about chasing Bitcoin (BTC) after its rapid rally near $84,200; the speaker preferred waiting for a possible $75,000–$80,000 entry, a personal preference rather than a forecast.
  • Watch SoFi (SOFI) for a possible opportunity: its Mastercard stablecoin partnership is positive, but high borrowing costs could pressure lending and no price target was provided.
  • Treat Zillow (Z) and The Real Brokerage (REAX) as higher-risk, longer-term recovery ideas; housing weakness and elevated mortgage rates remain key headwinds.
Detailed Analysis

U.S. 10-Year Treasury

  • The 10-year Treasury yield was described as making repeated 52-week highs, with the episode title citing a break above 5.13%.
  • The speaker sees rising yields as pressure on governments, companies, and especially growth stocks. Some investors, the speaker noted, are considering selling stocks to buy Treasuries yielding around 5%.
  • Policy uncertainty—including a possible U.S. diesel-export ban—was cited as another source of volatility and potentially higher oil prices.

Takeaways

  • Rising yields are a key risk to the stocks discussed, particularly businesses viewed as more sensitive to growth expectations or borrowing costs.
  • The transcript presents Treasuries as an alternative investors are considering, not as a specific recommendation. Weigh their yield against the possibility that rates and policy-driven volatility continue to affect markets.

Hims & Hers (HIMS)

  • The speaker said HIMS and SoFi had strikingly similar stock charts despite having very different business models, suggesting the market has been selling growth stocks as a group.
  • HIMS was described as having traded at a low valuation for an extended period, using a valuation measure the speaker called “EV over GP over RG.” The measure was not clearly defined in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view is that macro-driven selling may be obscuring differences between companies. For HIMS, assess the company’s own business performance rather than treating the stock’s movement as a verdict on its fundamentals.
  • The transcript gives no specific price target or company-specific catalyst.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • The speaker said Nebius had remained at a low level on the same unclear valuation measure for about nine months.
  • NBIS was discussed as part of a growth-stock group under pressure from higher yields.

Takeaways

  • Higher rates and broad growth-stock selling are the main concerns raised in the discussion.
  • The transcript does not provide a company-specific forecast or price target, so the valuation comments alone do not establish a buy case.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

  • The speaker said high rates could weigh on SoFi because borrowers may be less inclined to take personal loans when borrowing costs are high.
  • A stablecoin partnership with Mastercard was described as good news that the market had largely ignored.
  • SOFI was characterized as increasingly cheap on the speaker’s valuation measure, which was not clearly defined.

Takeaways

  • Consider both sides of the discussion: high rates may challenge its lending business, while the partnership could be a potential positive.
  • The speaker views market-wide selling as masking company-specific developments, but the transcript offers no price target or estimate of the partnership’s financial impact.

The Real Brokerage (REAX)

  • The speaker said REAX had acquired RE/MAX at a favorable price and had grown despite a difficult housing market.
  • The claimed growth was attributed to taking market share from traditional “mom and pop” realtors with higher fees, using an app-based model with less overhead.
  • The stock was described as near its lowest level in years, with mortgage rates and weak housing activity cited as reasons for the pressure.

Takeaways

  • The potential opportunity described is a company gaining share while its broader market is weak.
  • The counterpoint is that low housing activity and high mortgage rates remain significant headwinds. The speaker did not give a price target.

Zillow (Z)

  • The speaker said Zillow’s stock had fallen 68% in about a year, attributing the decline to real-estate weakness and changing interest-rate expectations.
  • Zillow was described as having a dominant real-estate network and earning referral revenue from realtors.

Takeaways

  • The speaker sees a possible disconnect between Zillow’s market position and its share-price performance, but acknowledges that weak real estate conditions are weighing on the stock.
  • The discussion raises a potential long-term recovery thesis, not a specific timing or price target.

Opendoor (OPEN)

  • The speaker said OPEN had fallen 75% from a prior level near $10 and 63% over a year.
  • The stock was presented as part of a real-estate group that the market appears to trade as a basket, with interest rates and housing weakness driving sentiment.

Takeaways

  • The speaker sees severe pessimism in real estate as a possible source of opportunity, but the transcript does not establish that the decline has ended.
  • High rates and a weak housing market are the main risks cited.

Strategy (MSTR)

  • The speaker said MSTR had traded near $83 roughly two months earlier and had since doubled, describing the stock as having regained momentum.
  • MSTR was said to move roughly in line with Bitcoin, but with somewhat larger percentage moves: on the day discussed, Bitcoin was down about 2% and Strategy about 3%.
  • The speaker said the company’s “best strategy” was to wait, and noted that its common shares had not been sold “in a very long time.”

Takeaways

  • MSTR offers exposure to Bitcoin-related price moves, but its volatility can be greater than Bitcoin’s, according to the speaker’s comparison.
  • The cited $83 was a past trading level, not a price target. The speaker also emphasized continued volatility from interest rates and macro uncertainty.

Strategy’s STRC Preferred Shares

  • The speaker referred to Strategy’s preferred instrument as Stretch (STRC) and said it was trading a few cents below $99.
  • STRC was described as holding up despite the sharp rise in Treasury yields, which the speaker said might normally pressure such instruments.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed STRC’s resilience as notable, but the transcript does not explain its terms, distributions, or how it may respond if rates move further.
  • Understand the instrument’s specific structure and risks before comparing it with common shares or Treasuries.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was around $84,200 in the discussion, after what the speaker described as a rapid rise followed by a modest pullback.
  • The speaker said they would be more comfortable seeing Bitcoin around $75,000–$80,000, while explicitly presenting that as a personal feeling rather than a formal target.
  • Rising Treasury yields, a hawkish Fed, oil-market uncertainty, and sharp market moves were cited as reasons to be cautious about chasing prices.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stance is cautious about buying after a fast rally and favors waiting for a lower entry level; the $75,000–$80,000 range is a personal preference, not a forecast.
  • The transcript highlights volatility and macro uncertainty as key risks.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • The speaker identified Robinhood as a potential beneficiary of unusually high market volatility, arguing that sharp, unpredictable moves can prompt traders to act.

Takeaways

  • The potential opportunity described depends on elevated volatility sustaining trader activity.
  • The transcript does not quantify how volatility would affect Robinhood’s revenue or provide a price target.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Hyperliquid was also named as a potential beneficiary of volatile markets and traders feeling compelled to make moves.

Takeaways

  • The thesis is that volatile conditions could benefit trading activity, but the discussion gives no specific evidence about Hyperliquid’s expected revenue or valuation.
  • Treat the idea as a volatility-linked theme, not a forecast.

Other Growth Stocks Mentioned

  • Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet/Google (GOOGL/GOOG) were described as falling during the session, with the speaker attributing the moves to rising Treasury yields and broader market conditions rather than company-specific news.
  • Eos Energy (transcribed as “EOSC,” likely EOSE), Pagaya (PGY), and Remitly (RELY) were cited as examples of growth stocks that fell roughly 8%–11% during the session.
  • Mastercard (MA) was mentioned in connection with SoFi’s stablecoin partnership.
  • Apple (AAPL) was used as an analogy: the speaker compared companies buying back their own stock with Bitcoin-treasury companies buying Bitcoin and reducing the amount available in the market.

Takeaways

  • These examples reinforce the speaker’s view that rising yields and broad risk-off trading can move stocks together, even when company news differs.
  • The transcript provides no individual price targets or detailed investment cases for these names.

Real-Estate and Growth-Stock Theme

  • The speaker’s broader thesis is that high interest rates are weighing on real estate and growth stocks, sometimes causing investors to sell companies as a group rather than distinguish among their business models.
  • The speaker suggested that extreme pessimism could create opportunities if housing activity eventually improves, but also acknowledged uncertainty about the timing and the Fed’s direction.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a possible watchlist approach: distinguish companies with evidence of business progress from those whose investment case depends mainly on a future recovery in rates or housing.
  • The key risks explicitly raised are persistently high yields, a hawkish Fed, weak real-estate activity, and unpredictable policy-driven volatility.
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Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Therefore, I don't cover just inexpensive stocks: I also cover today's low price action and certain stocks that could be cheap, such as SOFI stock, MSTR stock, BTC Bitcoin, and Nebius (NBIS stock), Opendoor stock (OPEN stock), The Real Brokerage (REAX stock), Zillow stock, etc. No Financial Advice! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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