Investing Trends for 2026: DeFi, Tokenization, Capital Formation, Speculation & AI | Ben Lakoff & Arnav from Bankless Ventures
Investing Trends for 2026: DeFi, Tokenization, Capital Formation, Speculation & AI | Ben Lakoff & Arnav from Bankless Ventures
131 days agoBankless
Podcast1 hr 16 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider investing in DeFi protocols like Morpho, which are powering the next wave of 'DeFi Neobanks' by integrating with major platforms like Coinbase to offer high-yield products to mainstream users. A major investment thesis for 2026 is the expansion of Equity Perps, a crypto-native trading product with a massive addressable market, so watch for platforms like Hyperliquid that are pioneering this space. Look for opportunities in Verticalized Tokenization Platforms (VTPs), which are companies focused on dominating a single real-world asset class, such as auto loans or solar loans, by bringing them fully on-chain. A significant future opportunity lies in projects building AI agent asset managers, which are designed to execute complex DeFi strategies more effectively than humans in 24/7 markets. Finally, maintain foundational positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum as they are now institutionally-validated assets and serve as prime collateral for the growing on-chain lending ecosystem.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The podcast highlights the growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin, citing BlackRock's highest-grossing ETF products being Bitcoin-related.
  • It is mentioned as a prime collateral asset for on-chain lending. For example, users on Coinbase can now borrow USDC against their Bitcoin holdings, a service powered by the DeFi protocol Morpho.

Takeaways

  • Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a mature, institutionally-validated asset, moving beyond its "contrarian" status to a consensus investment.
  • Its utility is expanding beyond a simple store of value. It is now a productive asset that can be used as collateral to access liquidity (borrow stablecoins) without creating a taxable event.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Described as the foundational layer that birthed modern "programmable finance" and the investment themes discussed in the podcast (DeFi, Tokenization, etc.).
  • The ERC-20 token standard on Ethereum is called "perhaps the most important primitive in all of crypto."
  • Like Bitcoin, it is a key collateral type for borrowing on platforms like Coinbase.
  • It is positioned as the underlying "banking ledger" for the future of finance, particularly for DeFi Neobanks.

Takeaways

  • Investing in the Ethereum ecosystem is a bet on the continued growth of the entire programmable finance landscape.
  • As more complex financial products like neobanks and tokenized assets are built, the demand for Ethereum as the base settlement and security layer is expected to increase.

Investment Theme: DeFi (Decentralized Finance)

  • The discussion frames DeFi as evolving from simple, experimental applications ("slow DeFi") to more sophisticated and institutional-grade financial services. The theme is that many services previously only available from centralized firms are moving on-chain.
  • It's noted that on-chain decentralized exchanges now account for 22% to 26% of total crypto trading volume, a significant increase driven by lessons learned from the FTX collapse.

On-chain Lending

  • The podcast argues that on-chain lending has "barely started." Currently, it is dominated by over-collateralized, variable-rate loans (Aave, Compound).
  • The future of lending is expected to mirror traditional finance, moving towards:
    • Fixed-rate and fixed-term loans: Morpho B2 is highlighted as a protocol making a "material swing" at this.
    • Unsecured and under-collateralized loans: Projects like 3Jane, Wildcat, and CreditOnWorldCoin are mentioned as pioneers in this area.
    • Lending against exotic and long-tail assets: This includes lending against Real World Assets (RWAs).

Takeaways

  • The on-chain lending market is poised for massive expansion. Look for protocols that are innovating beyond the standard over-collateralized model.
  • Fixed-rate lending is a key development to watch, as it provides certainty for both borrowers and lenders, making DeFi more attractive for mainstream use.
  • The development of on-chain credit and under-collateralized lending is a high-risk, high-reward area that could unlock a market far larger than the current DeFi space.

Equity Perps

  • Perpetual futures ("perps") are described as a crypto-native innovation that offers traders a simpler way to get leveraged exposure without an expiration date.
  • The speakers are very bullish on bringing this product to the traditional equities market. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for U.S. equity perps is estimated to be 15 to 20 times greater than the entire crypto trading market today.
  • Hyperliquid is cited as a major success story, having surpassed the NASDAQ in net income at one point, proving the model's power.

Takeaways

  • The application of crypto's perpetual futures model to the massive traditional stock market is a major investment thesis for 2026.
  • Investors should watch for platforms that are building the infrastructure and obtaining the regulatory clarity to offer equity perps, as they could attract a huge wave of capital from traditional traders.

DeFi Neobanks

  • This refers to the "DeFi Mullet" concept: a simple, user-friendly fintech app on the front-end, powered by complex DeFi protocols on the back-end.
  • The Coinbase integration with Morpho is a prime example. It allows Coinbase to offer a competitive yield product (5.63% APY mentioned) to its users seamlessly. This integration alone grew Morpho's Total Value Locked (TVL) from $700 million to $3.3 billion in months.
  • The biggest opportunity is seen in emerging markets, where there is immense demand for access to US dollars and stable, high-yield savings products that DeFi can provide.

Takeaways

  • DeFi Neobanks represent a massive distribution channel for DeFi protocols, bringing in potentially billions in capital from mainstream users.
  • The biggest growth in this sector is expected to come from companies targeting users in regions like Latin America (LATAM) and other developing nations, where local financial systems are less stable. Investing in the protocols that power these neobanks (like Morpho) or the neobanks themselves is a key strategy.

Specialized Exchanges

  • The thesis is that the market will move beyond general-purpose exchanges to specialized venues catering to specific niches.
  • Examples include:
    • Exchanges for RWAs, FX markets, or long-tail retail assets.
    • Institution-focused exchanges with on-chain KYC, like Aave Horizon.
    • Permissionless infrastructure like Hyperliquid's HIP3, which allows anyone to build a specialized perp exchange front-end on top of Hyperliquid's core technology.

Takeaways

  • As the crypto market matures, look for exchanges that are not trying to be everything to everyone.
  • Specialized venues that can offer deep liquidity and tailored experiences for specific asset classes or user types (like institutions) are a promising area for investment.

On-chain Options

  • The traditional options market is enormous, with the U.S. market alone doing $3 to $4 trillion in notional volume per day.
  • The speakers believe that on-chain options could have their own "Hyperliquid moment," where a platform finally cracks the code on user experience and liquidity aggregation, leading to explosive growth.

Takeaways

  • On-chain options are an underexplored but potentially massive market. An investment in a project that can deliver a superior, 24/7 options trading experience could see significant returns.

Investment Theme: Tokenization & RWAs

  • This theme is gaining massive institutional momentum, with figures like Larry Fink of BlackRock writing a "love letter to tokenization."
  • A key risk mentioned is the reliance on traditional finance settlement rails. The example given was Paxos Gold (PAXG), which de-pegged from the price of gold during a market crash because arbitrageurs couldn't redeem the physical gold fast enough to restore the peg.

Tokenizing Latent Markets

  • This involves bringing new, real-world sources of yield on-chain.
  • The most successful tokenized assets will be those that:
    1. Bring a material amount of exogenous (external) yield on-chain.
    2. Have genuine consumer interest.
  • A prime example given is USDAI, a project that tokenizes the cash flows from AI data centers and distributes the yield on-chain.

Takeaways

  • The most valuable RWAs will be those that provide new, sustainable sources of yield to the DeFi ecosystem, not just representations of existing assets.
  • Look for projects that are tokenizing cash-flowing assets in high-growth, high-interest sectors like AI infrastructure.

Verticalized Tokenization Platforms (VTPs)

  • This is presented as a contrarian but powerful thesis. Instead of generalized platforms that tokenize anything (Securitize, Centrifuge), VTPs are companies that focus on owning the entire tokenization process for a single asset class.
  • The goal is to drive the marginal cost of lending to zero by handling everything from the borrower to the investor on-chain.
  • Potential verticals include auto loans, solar loans, and BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) receivables.

Takeaways

  • Investing in a VTP is a bet on a company becoming the definitive, on-chain market leader for a specific multi-billion dollar asset class.
  • These platforms have the potential to capture enormous value by disintermediating costly middlemen in traditional finance and sourcing cheaper capital directly from DeFi.

Investment Theme: Capital Formation

  • The core idea is that crypto is developing a mature, on-chain "capital stack" that allows projects to raise funds, create liquidity, and trade without relying on centralized exchanges.

Compliant ICOs & On-chain Stock

  • The podcast predicts a new generation of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) that are more transparent and have better investor protections, citing projects like MetaDAO and Doppler.
  • A more speculative but interesting idea is that small and mid-market enterprises could begin to issue their stock directly on-chain, raising capital in USDC from a global pool of investors.

Takeaways

  • The return of the ICO, but in a more regulated and mature form, presents a new opportunity for retail investors to get in early on promising projects.
  • The idea of on-chain stock issuance could democratize venture capital and private equity, creating a massive new market for both companies seeking capital and investors seeking opportunities.

Investment Theme: Speculation Markets

  • The speakers argue that speculation is a persistent human desire, amplified in younger generations by "financial nihilism" (a feeling of being financially boxed out). Crypto provides a venue for "intellectual speculation," where participants feel they have an edge.

Alternative & Opinion Markets

  • While prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are established, the next wave of speculation is expected to come from more subjective markets.
  • These include:
    • Opinion Markets: Betting on subjective, often viral topics (e.g., "who would win in a fight").
    • Consensus Markets and Precision Markets.
  • The biggest challenge for these new markets is attracting enough liquidity for them to be usable.

Takeaways

  • The next breakout consumer crypto application could be a novel type of speculation market that captures the public's imagination.
  • These markets have huge viral potential but are a high-risk investment, as their success depends on solving the difficult problems of liquidity and fair, trustworthy resolution of subjective outcomes.

Investment Theme: Artificial Intelligence (AI)

  • AI is framed as a "new player entering the chat." AI agents are seen as crypto-native entities because they cannot open a traditional bank account but can easily hold and transact with crypto.

AI Agent Asset Managers

  • The thesis is that humans are ill-equipped to manage risk in 24/7/365 crypto markets.
  • AI agents can be designed to manage liquidity, smart contract risk, and de-pegging risk at scale, and execute complex DeFi strategies far more effectively than humans.

Takeaways

  • A significant investment opportunity lies in the development of sophisticated AI agents that act as on-chain asset managers. These could become the most dominant players in DeFi.

Payment Standards for AI

  • The podcast highlights the X402 standard, a proposed virtual payment system that would allow AI agents to transact with each other using stablecoins.

Takeaways

  • The infrastructure that enables AI agents to transact and interact with the economy is a fundamental and potentially massive investment area. A standard like X402 could become the "substrate to pay for all web resources" in an AI-driven future.
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Episode Description
Ben Lakoff and Arnav Pagidyala from Bankless Ventures lay out how they’re thinking about crypto investing heading into 2026. The conversation spans four persistent pillars of every cycle: DeFi, tokenization, capital formation, and speculation and how each is evolving as crypto matures. Topics include the next wave of on-chain lending, equity perps, DeFi neobanks, verticalized tokenization platforms, compliant ICOs, prediction and opinion markets, and where AI agents may reshape crypto-native finance. A candid look at what’s investable now, what’s changing, and how Bankless Ventures is underwriting the next cycle. ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24  https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔵COINBASE | ETH & BTC BACKED LOANS https://bankless.cc/coinbase-borrow 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, & EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | CONTINUOUS CLEARING AUCTIONS  https://bankless.cc/uniswap-cca 🛞MANTLE | GLOBAL HACKATHON 2025 https://bankless.cc/mantle-hackathon 💤EIGHT SLEEP | IMPROVE YOUR SLEEP https://bankless.cc/eight-sleep  ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 11:59 DeFi 36:20 Tokenization 50:25 Capital Formation 1:00:44 Speculation Markets 1:09:58 AI 1:13:26 Founders & Teams 1:15:31 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Ben Lakoff https://x.com/benlakoff  Arnav https://x.com/0xArnav  Bankless Ventures https://x.com/banklessvc  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠
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