Austin Lieberman

AI Infrastructure & Tech

Big tech valuations show extreme divergence as capital demands rise, with META standing out as cheap relative to expensive AI peers. Meanwhile, heavy capital needs continue for neoclouds like CRWV through massive convertible note offerings.

• Meta (META): Undervalued AI play trading at a 22.2 P/E; upcoming catalysts like Muse could spark a major run.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Strong financial scale cleared the way for the broader AI trade to continue moving higher.
• CoreWeave (CRWV): Dropped 5.04% to $79.14 following a $3 billion convertible note offering, highlighting relentless capital needs.

Valuation Extremes & Cyclicals

Historical valuation parallels to 1999 create headwinds for broad indices, while select blue chips and specialty distributors face compression. Market darlings like COST and cyclical names like POOL trade at historic premiums or face severe earnings drops.

• Pool Corp (POOL): Down 40% to 71% from 2022 peaks with compressed margins and rising dividend risks amid falling earnings.
• Costco (COST): Flat over two years while trading at an elevated P/E of roughly 43.8x to 44x, a 50% historical premium.
• FICO (FICO): Elite buyback compounder with a 1000% total return over the decade as share counts dropped over 60%.