Austin Lieberman

Big Tech And AI

Cloud demand supports AMZN, but sharp earnings reactions and changing AI economics make execution and valuation more important than headline growth.

• AMZN: Bullish cloud thesis met a roughly 9% post-earnings drop; AWS acceleration remains the key test, while forecasts of 6–12-month leadership are uncertain.
• META: Identified as a potential market leader, but softer-than-expected Q4 guidance and heavy AI spending could weigh; its Muse performance may pressure OpenAI.
• NVDA: Valuation looks comparatively reasonable versus Apple, with cited EPS growth estimates of 94% for FY27 and 71% for FY28; Microsoft’s Maia chips threaten inference share.
• PLTR: Q3 estimates imply $2.18B revenue and $0.41 adjusted EPS; Q4 guidance, US commercial growth, and margins matter against a 126× P/E.

AI Infrastructure

The selloff challenges the durability of debt-funded AI infrastructure: customer insourcing and financing access may separate scaled platforms from vulnerable neoclouds.

• CRWV: Shares fell from $99 to $42 in the cited drawdown; debt repayment and a credible path to profitability remain unresolved.
• IREN: Reportedly has 2026 capacity largely contracted and 2027 demand above available supply, but potential cash needs or dilution are risks.
• SpaceX / Starlink: $40B debt funding for GPUs was portrayed as more viable because Starlink and launch revenue support investment-grade credit access.

Housing And Risk

Cash preservation and selective entry recur amid volatile markets; housing exposure favors established operators over highly speculative alternatives.

• NVR: Preferred alongside RKT over OPEN; its 18.06× blended P/E may appeal if housing recovers, though FY26 EPS is estimated to decline 23%.
• RKT: Named as a preferred housing-turnaround play over OPEN, but the insights provide no valuation or catalyst details.
• SQQQ / Cash: The hedge was closed for a reported 17.53% gain, with the investor holding roughly 40–54% cash and deploying gradually.