Austin Lieberman

AI & Mega Cap Valuations

Slowing AI capital expenditure acts as a bullish catalyst for attractively priced platform leaders while high-valuation retail and tech names face painful multiple normalization.

• META (META): Undervalued compared to peer AI names with a P/E of 22.2, trading up on strong momentum and the Muse catalyst.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Strong financial results at scale have cleared the path for the broader artificial intelligence trade to continue higher.
• Costco (COST): Trading flat over two years with an elevated blended P/E around 44x, representing a steep premium over its 30x historical average.

Growth & Capital Allocation

Strong share buybacks drive massive long-term outperformance for disciplined operators, whereas poorly timed repurchasing cycles destroy significant shareholder value.

• FICO (FICO): Elite buyback compounder reducing share count over 60% since 2006, generating a 1000% total return over the past decade.
• Mercado Libre (MELI): Trading at its cheapest valuation multiple in over ten years while providing strong core portfolio performance.
• Nike (NKE): Destroyed capital by aggressively buying back 124M shares at an average price of $97.57 before pausing as shares collapsed to $40.