The Federal Reserve is shifting away from forward guidance, meaning future interest rate decisions will no longer be priced into the SOFR curve well in advance. This transition is expected to result in higher rate volatility and increased market sensitivity to SOFR as the Fed moves toward a "pure Taylor rule-like reaction function." Investors should anticipate 50/50 odds for rate moves at upcoming meetings, placing the burden of analysis on speculators rather than central bank signaling.

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