The prediction platform Polymarket shows the odds of a permanent peace deal between the United States and Iran have surged to approximately 77% for a July 31st deadline, up from 30% the previous week. This shift follows reports that a "Memorandum of Understanding" has been largely negotiated, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trading data on the Bullpen Pro dashboard confirms high volume and rising "Yes" contract prices for peace deal outcomes through December 2026.