Trump doubles down on the $5K checks to Americans: "If the Republicans win the House and the Senate, then I will give $5K to every adult in America. Let's call it the Trump Dividend." I did some basic math on this. Let's assume they will apply an income limit threshold because there is no way they are going to give $5K to the richest American adults even if they are saying every adult. So they income limit I'm using is the same one for the first round of stimulus checks in 2020. A hypothetical $5,000 payment to every eligible U.S. adult would provide the full $5,000 to single filers earning up to $75,000, married couples earning up to $150,000, and heads of household earning up to $112,500, with payments gradually phasing out and reaching zero at roughly $99,000 for singles, $198,000 for married couples, and $136,500 for heads of household. This gets us to around 200 million full-payment-equivalent adults to qualify after accounting for the phaseout, which means the program would cost approximately $1 trillion, with a reasonable rough range of $900 billion to $1.1 trillion, depending on the exact number of eligible adults and how dependents are treated. So even with a pretty aggressive income limit threshold, you get to $1T of money being given out to people, which might be a bit inflationary and make the Fed's job a little harder when it comes to tackling inflation. On the other hand, this might all just be marketing and it's not going to happen or it does happen through some tax refund, but given the number of people that would qualify, it would still be pumping hundreds of billions into the economy with oil already high, yields already high, and rates continuing to go up.
