You know what I’ve started to really think about… In 2008, those that called the housing crisis had something that the entire stock market did not have: data around the housing crisis. Now, the data was available to the entire market, but only a few people chose to deeply study it and interpret what could happen. In today’s AI driven stock market, the only way for there to be a 2008 like crash is if there is something underneath the surface that the market is completely ignoring. That would have to be the smoking gun that someone finds out about and can then use to determine what would crash the entire rally. But…isn’t everyone already looking for that?! Like, aren’t people obsessed with trying to find out how the bubble pops? We have people daily dedicating every bit of their research to find out how this breaks. Every argument, whether it’s circular funding or capex slows down or higher inflation etc is theorized about daily. It’s almost like we have so many people afraid of the dot com bubble happening again that there is an OVER emphasis on all the things that can go wrong (which is healthy) and as a result, every massive bear case is already out there…already discovered…already priced in. Which means that if every market participant is analyzing every single thing that could go wrong, there is going to need to be a REALLY good and original bear argument for things to go bad. Everytime you hear a bear case, it should be more original and something you haven’t thought of because if not, it might have already been discovered and not actually be a bear case.
