YIELDS CONTINUE HIGHER EVEN WITH IRAN HEADLINES, SPY HOLDS GREEN | MARKET CLOSE
YIELDS CONTINUE HIGHER EVEN WITH IRAN HEADLINES, SPY HOLDS GREEN | MARKET CLOSE
13 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube1 hr 44 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider U.S. Treasuries and high-quality bonds for portfolio income or wealth preservation, especially near retirement; balance potential income against interest-rate risk, and treat high-yield corporate bonds such as Oracle’s as carrying meaningful credit risk.
  • Uber (UBER) is a potential long-term investment into 2027, based on its autonomous-vehicle partnerships, but the thesis depends on adoption and execution; no price target was provided.
  • Watch Micron (MU) ahead of earnings next Wednesday as a near-term semiconductor catalyst, but avoid assuming recent AI-driven momentum will continue without supportive results.
  • Approach Bloom Energy (BE) cautiously despite strong momentum: $300 and $330 were discussed as price levels, not formal targets, and the move may depend on continued project-related enthusiasm.
Detailed Analysis

S&P 500 / SPY

  • The S&P 500 (SPY) finished up about 0.5% at 771.36, reversing earlier weakness after reports of Iran-U.S. negotiations. Oil fell about 2.4% on the news.
  • The host viewed the proposal as more credible than recent headlines but stressed that the terms may not be acceptable to the U.S. Bond yields remained high despite the market rally, leaving uncertainty about the effect on the economy and stocks.
  • The host said moving into the 780s would be welcome, while discussing—but not predicting—a possible 5% pullback in October. The discussion also cited an average October gain of about 1.2% in midterm years, while noting that seasonality is not a guarantee.
  • The host cited a statistic that roughly 60%–70% of individual stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 over three-to-ten-year periods. The index’s breadth can help offset weakness in individual holdings.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors caution about drawing conclusions from a single geopolitical headline: negotiations could fail, and high yields remained a concern.
  • Investors choosing individual stocks should recognize the difficulty of outperforming a diversified index; the transcript emphasizes research and patience rather than a specific SPY trade.

U.S. Treasuries, Corporate Bonds, and TLT

  • Speakers were concerned that elevated yields could weigh on the economy and make financing more difficult for capital-intensive businesses. One speaker cited a yield of about 5.16% during the show.
  • The guest argued that bonds may be worth considering for income and wealth preservation, particularly for older investors, those nearing retirement, or people who want to cover living expenses with portfolio income. He suggested that near-retirees might hold a high fixed-income allocation, while emphasizing that allocation depends on age, job security, and personal circumstances.
  • As examples, the guest described a long-dated Microsoft bond with a 3% coupon trading around 54 cents on the dollar, for an indicated yield of about 6.23%, and an Oracle bond with a 6.1% coupon trading around 75 cents on the dollar, for an indicated yield around 8.25%. He noted that bond prices could rise if rates fall, but that this is not assured.
  • TLT, which holds long-duration Treasuries, was described as down roughly 46% from its all-time highs. The guest cautioned that TLT is particularly sensitive to long-term interest rates and is not the same as holding short-term Treasuries.
  • The guest said he personally had about 50% of his portfolio in fixed income at age 41, partly because the income covered much of his household’s expenses. That was his personal approach, not a universal allocation recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights a trade-off: bonds can provide income and potentially appreciate if yields fall, but long-duration bonds can lose value when yields rise.
  • Higher stated yields on corporate bonds also come with issuer credit risk. The guest said he was comfortable with Oracle’s ability to pay, but that view is not a guarantee.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Oracle shares were down about 2% on the day, even as Bloom Energy rose. The host linked Bloom’s momentum in part to renewed attention around Oracle-related project activity.
  • The guest focused on Oracle’s debt, citing a long-dated bond with an indicated yield of about 8.25%. He argued that Oracle’s remaining contracted business and cash flow made him less concerned about default, while acknowledging that Oracle’s spending and debt are concerns for investors.
  • The discussion noted that Oracle could reduce future capital spending if financing or business conditions became difficult. The guest said that would be preferable to continuing to expand spending at any cost.

Takeaways

  • Oracle’s AI-related growth opportunity is being weighed against its financing needs and debt. The bond’s high indicated yield reflects risks that investors should assess rather than treat as a guaranteed return.
  • The transcript does not give a specific Oracle share-price target or a direct stock recommendation.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft rose about 3% on the day.
  • Separately, the guest used a long-dated Microsoft bond as an example of how a low coupon can translate into a higher current yield when the bond trades below face value.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was positive about the day’s share-price performance but did not present a specific Microsoft stock thesis or price target.
  • Bond investors should distinguish between a bond’s stated coupon and its current yield, and consider the risks of long maturities and changing interest rates.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • Bloom Energy rose roughly 8%–9% and was described as one of the day’s strongest momentum names.
  • The host said there was no major new headline during the session beyond renewed momentum around Oracle-related project activity.
  • The host mentioned $300 as a possible level and $330 as a prior peak reached in May. These were observations about price levels, not a formal forecast.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to strong momentum but also suggests that the move may depend on continued enthusiasm around project activity and related companies.
  • The transcript does not establish a specific price target or explain the company’s full investment case.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

  • Akamai rose about 3% after giving back much of a much larger move; the host said it had been up close to 30% at one point the prior night.
  • The host mentioned analyst upgrades and discussed selling puts as a possible way to collect option premium, but also raised concerns about potential dilution, capital spending, and whether Akamai can secure another large hyperscaler deal.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identifies both a potential opportunity and meaningful execution risks; the faded price move illustrates the volatility involved.
  • Selling puts can result in having to buy the shares at the strike price, including if the stock falls. The host’s comments were not a specific trade recommendation.

Uber Technologies (UBER)

  • The host said he already held a small position and was considering increasing it, describing Uber as a possible core holding going into 2027.
  • His thesis was that if autonomous driving becomes widely available, Uber could benefit from operating a platform that connects riders with multiple autonomous-vehicle providers. He noted Uber’s partnerships with several providers, including Waymo.
  • He also cited a CEO purchase of about $15 million in shares and suggested that earnings per share could grow 20%–30% annually. He said he bought at $74 and the shares were around $69 during the discussion.
  • The host acknowledged that the stock had been testing investors’ patience and that the autonomous-vehicle opportunity depends on execution and adoption.

Takeaways

  • The investment case discussed is that Uber may benefit from a broad network of autonomous vehicles, rather than needing to own all the vehicles itself.
  • The thesis depends on partnerships and the development of autonomous ride-hailing; the transcript does not provide a price target.

Tesla (TSLA) and Humanoid Robots

  • Tesla rose on an Optimus-related headline, then gave back the gain; the host described it as a “pump and dump” and said the market needs evidence that the robots will work.
  • Elon Musk discussed a future in which humanoid robots could help with household tasks, caregiving, and tutoring, and predicted that the number of robots could exceed one billion within ten years. The host treated the vision as exciting but speculative.
  • The host questioned how useful humanoid robots would be in homes, whether they could perform tasks reliably, and whether specialized or non-humanoid robots might be more practical in warehouses.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents robotics as a long-term opportunity, but stresses that practical use cases and reliable performance still need to be demonstrated.
  • Treat ambitious adoption forecasts as speculation rather than evidence of near-term revenue or shareholder returns.

Semiconductors and AI Infrastructure

AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Broadcom (AVGO), Intel (INTC), and related names

  • AMD had a strong week, though it fell from about $640 in premarket trading to close near $630. Some viewers said they sold shares; the host said he did not object to taking profits if an investor had a large position.
  • Micron was highlighted ahead of earnings scheduled for the following Wednesday. The host said the stock had touched $1,100 and that earnings would be important for determining whether momentum continued.
  • Broadcom was described by the guest as a stock the market might be overlooking. The host said Broadcom options “leaps” looked interesting but that he was still researching the company and was wary of options with expiration dates while yields were high.
  • Intel fell about 3%; the host said he had not seen a clear explanation or downgrade for the move.
  • The discussion also noted that semiconductor stocks had recently lagged the Nasdaq despite strong year-to-date performance. The host suggested a strong fourth quarter for semiconductors was possible, but said Micron’s results could be important.
  • Dell, SanDisk, Amkor, Corning, and SMCI were briefly mentioned in the daily market recap. SanDisk and Corning were modestly higher, while Dell was down; SMCI was up about 4.2%. No detailed investment thesis was provided for these names.

Takeaways

  • Micron earnings were identified as a near-term catalyst, while Broadcom was presented as a research idea rather than a recommendation.
  • High yields and the possibility of a sharp share-price move make options particularly sensitive to timing. A company can have a promising AI theme and still deliver volatile stock performance.

Meta Platforms (META) and Twilio (TWLO)

  • Meta was down about 3% on the day but had a strong week: the host described it as up about 15% for the week and nearly 40% for the month.
  • Twilio fell about 7%. The host discussed a concern that AI agents could reduce the need for the company’s business-to-consumer SMS messaging services if agents increasingly interact with services on users’ behalf.
  • The host also mentioned Meta’s Muse agent as part of the market’s concern about Twilio’s business model.

Takeaways

  • The discussion frames AI agents as a potential competitive risk for businesses whose services may be bypassed by automated interactions.
  • Meta’s recent gains were substantial, while the Twilio concern was presented as a possible market interpretation—not as proof that its core business will be displaced.

Cybersecurity Stocks: Zscaler (ZS), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Okta (OKTA), Rubrik (RBRK), and Fastly (FSLY)

  • Zscaler fell about 10%. The host also noted weakness in Palo Alto Networks, Okta, Rubrik, and Fastly.
  • The host speculated that the departure of a Zscaler executive could have contributed to weakness across the sector, but did not identify a confirmed cause for all the declines.

Takeaways

  • The broad weakness may reflect sector-wide sentiment, but the transcript does not establish a shared fundamental cause.
  • The host’s comments support checking company-specific news and business outlooks before treating a sector move as an investment signal.

PayPal (PYPL)

  • PayPal rose about 5.3% on reports that it might be acquired. The host said there was no rumor identifying a potential buyer.

Takeaways

  • The move was driven by takeover speculation, not a confirmed transaction.
  • Investors relying on a possible buyout face uncertainty because neither a buyer nor a deal was identified.

Bitcoin (BTC), Circle (CRCL), and Crypto-Asset Security

  • Bitcoin was around $84,000 during the discussion. The host said Robinhood and Circle had been affected when Bitcoin moved lower, before markets rebounded on the Iran headline.
  • Circle fell about 2% after news that its CFO would step down. The transcript did not provide further detail about the departure.
  • The host reported that crypto exchange Bitget suffered a hack in which about $357 million was stolen. A Bloomberg report cited in the show attributed the attack to North Korean-linked hackers and said North Korea’s digital-asset theft haul had exceeded $1 billion that year.

Takeaways

  • Crypto-linked equities can move with Bitcoin and company-specific news, as the Circle CFO departure illustrated.
  • The Bitget incident underscores the security and custody risks associated with crypto platforms. The transcript does not offer a Bitcoin price forecast or a specific crypto recommendation.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • Rocket Lab was around $73.95 at the close. The host said it had reached about $75 after the Iran headline but then faded.
  • SpaceX was also described as holding up reasonably well despite a lockup-related event; no detailed investment thesis was given.

Takeaways

  • The host’s comments show how quickly headline-driven moves can reverse, even in high-momentum space names.
  • No price target or specific recommendation was provided.

Reddit (RDDT)

  • The host cited a company comment that Reddit saw 1 billion new posts and comments in the prior quarter, representing about 4% of all content on the 21-year-old platform.
  • The statistic was offered as evidence against the idea that the platform is inactive. The host also said questions remained about Reddit’s search-related narrative.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights ongoing user-generated content as a positive platform signal, while leaving the search opportunity unresolved.
  • The transcript does not provide a valuation view or price target.

Other stocks briefly mentioned

  • MercadoLibre (MELI) was described as flat; Google/Alphabet (GOOGL) moved from slightly negative to slightly positive; Nebius (NBIS) and CoreWeave (CRWV) were down about 2.4%; and Robinhood (HOOD) was relatively flat after recovering from an intraday decline.
  • Palantir (PLTR) was mentioned around $189–$190, with no specific thesis. Netflix (NFLX) was around $71; the host said he would like to see it near $60, expressing a preferred entry level rather than a formal target.
  • Amazon (AMZN) was cited as having underperformed the S&P 500 over the previous five years. The host used it to illustrate that even well-known companies can lag the index.
  • Moderna (MRNA) was up about 2%, Shopify (SHOP) was down about 2%, and Amcor (AMCR) was up about 2%; these were brief market updates without further analysis.
  • Applied Digital (APLD) and Circle were mentioned in the context of someone selling puts, but no detailed thesis was provided.
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) was mentioned in passing without a specific view.

Takeaways

  • These names received limited discussion, so the transcript does not support a strong investment conclusion for them.
  • The Netflix level was a personal preference, not an explicit forecast; the other price and daily-performance references were market commentary rather than recommendations.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!