WORST DAY FOR THE NASDAQ SINCE APRIL 2025 | MARKET CLOSE
WORST DAY FOR THE NASDAQ SINCE APRIL 2025 | MARKET CLOSE
13 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube1 hr 37 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Alphabet (GOOGL) on weakness: the speaker began buying, citing strong cloud growth and roughly 36% cloud operating margins; monitor whether growth converts into better cash flow.
  • Keep Amazon (AMZN) on a patient watchlist, with the speaker preferring it below $200 on confidence in AWS; heavy AI spending remains a risk.
  • Nebius (NBIS) was viewed favorably, but the speaker would be more interested below $100 and was not adding at current levels; assess financing risks across AI infrastructure.
  • Treat Reddit (RDDT) as a speculative dip opportunity only if you believe its growth can withstand changes in Google search; its roughly 30% drop does not prove a bottom.
  • Given broad-market volatility, avoid buying solely because prices have fallen, and keep speculative positions—especially T1 Energy (TE)—small enough to withstand severe losses.
Detailed Analysis

Nasdaq and Broad Market (NASDAQ, S&P 500, SPY)

  • The episode described a severe risk-off session: the NASDAQ fell about 3.7%, the S&P 500 about 1.7%, and the VIX surged as much as 40% intraday.
  • The speaker attributed the pressure to several factors: concerns about AI-related capital spending, debt and dilution, high interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, upcoming midterms, and possible forced selling by leveraged funds and hedge funds.
  • The transcript cited a report that hedge funds had cut gross exposure by 7.8%, described as the largest monthly reduction in Morgan Stanley prime-brokerage data going back to 2016. It also cited a report that leveraged ETFs might have to sell about $30 billion in stocks, mostly technology shares. These were presented as explanations for the selling, not confirmed causes.
  • The speaker said many companies looked cheaper on fundamentals but cautioned that falling prices and uncertain catalysts were making investors reluctant to buy. The discussion also raised the possibility that earnings growth could be peaking, while noting that the long-term AI and compute story might remain intact.

Takeaways

  • Avoid treating a sharp decline alone as proof that a stock has reached its bottom. The discussion highlighted the risk of further selling if rates, geopolitical concerns, or earnings expectations worsen.
  • If considering a dip purchase, the speakers emphasized having conviction in the business and being prepared to hold through continued volatility. One speaker mentioned selling puts only if willing to own the shares at the strike price.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon was relatively resilient during the sell-off and recovered much of a prior-day decline, which the host saw as evidence of confidence in AWS.
  • Sam said AWS was growing quickly and viewed Amazon as a long-term holding. He also said he would favor Amazon over Meta if Amazon fell below $200; this was a personal preference, not a formal price target.
  • The discussion also noted Amazon’s planned spending and debt funding as part of the broader market concern about AI infrastructure costs.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s bullish case rests on AWS growth and Amazon’s ability to turn investment into cash flow over time.
  • The counterpoint is that heavy spending and borrowing can weigh on the stock, even if the business remains strong. The speakers favored patience over assuming that a sharp drop is automatically a buying opportunity.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)

  • Sam called Google’s earnings strong, highlighting rapid cloud growth and a cloud operating margin of about 36%. He said increased capital spending was already widely expected, rather than a new surprise.
  • He viewed the sell-off as excessive and said he had started buying shares. The discussion also acknowledged that rising spending and weaker cash flow could unsettle investors.
  • Google was mentioned as a potential beneficiary of AI, including Gemini, but the speakers noted that investors want evidence that growth is translating into stronger profits.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case presented was that Google’s cloud and AI growth could support longer-term earnings, while the spending plan is already known.
  • A key issue to monitor is whether cloud revenue growth leads to improving margins and cash generation, rather than simply requiring more investment.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA fell during the market rout and briefly approached $200 before recovering somewhat. The transcript did not give a price target.
  • More broadly, the speakers described semiconductor stocks as being sold despite continued AI-related spending, partly because investors are reassessing how quickly that spending will produce returns.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested that strong demand for AI compute does not guarantee near-term stock gains; valuations, funding costs, and expectations for earnings growth still matter.
  • Treat the cited $200 level as a market reference from the broadcast, not as a stated support level or recommendation.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta fell substantially from recent highs. The discussion linked investor concern to high planned capital spending, possible debt issuance, and dilution.
  • Sam was positive on Meta’s large user base and the possibility of AI features being integrated across its platforms. He said he liked the stock at the discussed levels but would prefer Amazon if Amazon fell below $200.
  • The conversation also questioned whether Meta’s AI assistant, Muse, would gain sustained use. Sam believed adoption could take time.

Takeaways

  • The bull case depends on Meta turning its large audience and AI investments into durable revenue or productivity gains.
  • The main near-term concern discussed was the cost of funding those investments. The speakers cautioned that the stock could remain under pressure while spending and returns are debated.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla was comparatively stable during the session, trading around $395–$400 according to the host.
  • A rumor that customers might be able to pre-order Optimus robots for about $20,000, with delivery timing discussed for late 2027, was explicitly described as unconfirmed. The host said Tesla had been holding up even before the rumor appeared.

Takeaways

  • Do not treat the reported Optimus pre-order plan as confirmed or as evidence of near-term revenue.
  • The discussion offered no specific buy or sell recommendation for Tesla in this segment.

Reddit (RDDT)

  • Reddit fell about 30% in the session. The host argued that the reaction looked severe relative to the company’s growth and potential free cash flow, while acknowledging concerns that changes in Google search could weaken Reddit’s position.
  • Sam included Reddit among his buy-the-dip names, but also recognized that the investment case depends on the durability of Reddit’s growth and competitive position.

Takeaways

  • A potential opportunity depends on believing Reddit can sustain growth and develop its business despite possible changes in search traffic.
  • The key risk raised was that Reddit’s competitive advantage or growth assumptions may be weaker than investors expect. The sharp decline alone does not resolve that question.

Intel (INTC)

  • The host and Sam described Intel’s latest earnings call as disappointing. Concerns included weak PC demand, memory-related pressures, and data-center growth that may not be enough to drive the business on its own.
  • Sam said Intel was being rationally repriced and argued that its stock had run ahead of the company’s execution. He contrasted Intel’s foundry ambitions with TSMC, which he described as the established leader.
  • The discussion questioned whether Intel could regain much higher valuations without a meaningful improvement in earnings and capacity.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s view was cautious: a lower share price does not by itself restore the investment case if the operating outlook has weakened.
  • Investors considering Intel would need to assess whether its manufacturing and data-center plans can translate into sustained earnings growth.

AMD (AMD)

  • AMD fell sharply with other semiconductor stocks, then recovered somewhat into the close. The host cited it as one of the names potentially affected by forced selling from leveraged ETFs.
  • Sam said semiconductor earnings growth may still be strong but could be decelerating, which can pressure share prices when market expectations are high.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identified both AI-related demand and the pace of earnings growth as relevant; strong spending by customers does not necessarily prevent a stock from falling.
  • Watch whether upcoming results support the high expectations embedded in the sector. The episode did not provide an AMD price target.

Memory and Storage Stocks (Micron, Sandisk, Seagate, Western Digital)

  • Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) fell despite strong earnings being discussed for Sandisk. The speakers characterized memory stocks as highly cyclical and vulnerable to changes in spending and investor expectations.
  • Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) were also among the hardware names hit during the broader sell-off.
  • Sam said he already held Micron and Sandisk and was not looking to increase his positions at that point. He cautioned against assuming that the current AI investment cycle would continue indefinitely.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s main lesson was that strong results do not eliminate cyclicality. Investors should consider position size and the possibility of large swings in both directions.
  • The speakers did not suggest adding aggressively to memory positions during the sell-off.

Nebius (NBIS), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Other AI Infrastructure Providers

  • Nebius was down substantially from its highs. Sam remained strongly positive on it, citing its position in the sector, but said he was not looking to add at the time and referred to below $100 as a level where he would be more interested.
  • Sam was more concerned about CoreWeave, citing its high borrowing costs and the possibility that investor doubts could make financing more difficult. He described that as a potential self-reinforcing problem, while not claiming that failure was certain.
  • The discussion also mentioned Iren (IREN) and other infrastructure providers, noting that the sector as a whole may face tighter access to capital. Sam said he was not planning to take a large position in Iren.
  • Penguin Solutions (PENG), Marvell (MRVL), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) were among the technology names that fell sharply. The host expected some upcoming companies to report strong results, but that was an opinion, not a guarantee.

Takeaways

  • For AI infrastructure stocks, the speakers emphasized that customer demand is only part of the investment case; access to affordable financing and the ability to fund expansion are also critical.
  • The discussion was most cautious on CoreWeave’s debt and credit profile. Nebius received a more favorable view, but the speaker still advised against adding without regard to price or risk.

Anthropic (Private) and SpaceX (Private)

  • The host cited a Financial Times report that Anthropic could receive a BB-range, below-investment-grade credit rating after going public, contrary to earlier expectations. The implication discussed was that raising capital could be harder or more expensive.
  • The host said Anthropic was a major SpaceX customer and argued that any difficulty in Anthropic’s financing could create risk for SpaceX and other AI infrastructure providers. The transcript described SpaceX contracts as potentially cancellable or renegotiable.
  • The discussion also cited valuation estimates for Anthropic: a valuation of about $1.4–$1.5 trillion under very optimistic assumptions, compared with a reported target of $2 trillion. These were estimates and a reported IPO ambition, not confirmed market prices.
  • A guest argued that AI companies may need to slow capital spending and deployment, while another commentator said the AI business was experiencing a disruptive period but still had underlying demand.

Takeaways

  • The main investment issue raised was funding: large AI valuations and spending plans depend on continued access to capital and customers’ ability to pay.
  • Treat the credit-rating and IPO valuation discussion as reported or estimated information, not confirmed outcomes. SpaceX is private and has no public ticker.

ServiceNow (NOW) and Fortinet (FTNT)

  • ServiceNow fell further after a weak market reaction to earnings. Sam said he had trimmed some shares at higher prices but retained a smaller position, arguing that the decline reflected both company-specific concerns and a broader shift away from growth stocks.
  • Fortinet was discussed after a major decline following guidance concerns. Sam was comparatively negative, saying he believed Fortinet was losing ground and preferred platform-focused cybersecurity companies such as Palo Alto Networks.
  • The speakers distinguished these companies from the broader cybersecurity theme, which Sam viewed as attractive over the long term.

Takeaways

  • The discussion did not treat all cybersecurity stocks as interchangeable. Company execution, product mix, and competitive position were identified as important.
  • For ServiceNow, the debate was whether the sell-off reflected a temporary market reaction or slower growth and margins. For Fortinet, the concern was more directly about market position.

Cybersecurity Stocks (Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Rubrik, Qualys, Netskope)

  • Sam described cybersecurity as a potentially durable sector as AI adoption increases security needs. He favored companies with broad platforms, particularly Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and also mentioned CrowdStrike (CRWD), Rubrik (RBRK), Qualys (QLYS), and Netskope.
  • He also cautioned that some cybersecurity companies had already risen substantially, and said valuation mattered. Netskope was discussed as having more than doubled since he had highlighted it; no specific price target was given.

Takeaways

  • The positive theme was long-term demand for security, but the speakers stressed that selecting the right company and entry price matters.
  • High growth or a strong sector outlook does not automatically make a stock attractive at any valuation.

Fintech, Digital Payments, and E-commerce

  • Sam was broadly positive on the long-term shift from cash and physical transactions toward digital payments and e-commerce.
  • He cited Robinhood (HOOD) and MercadoLibre (MELI) as holdings he did not expect to sell, and mentioned DLocal (DLO), Sea Limited (SE), and Grab (GRAB) as companies he might consider. He said he was not buying SoFi (SOFI) at the discussed levels, despite praising its CEO and fundamentals.
  • Affirm (AFRM) and Coinbase (COIN) were raised as questions, but the speakers did not give a clear endorsement of either.
  • The discussion mentioned Circle (CRCL) as a possible beneficiary of tokenization, while noting that much of its revenue depends on USDC-related activity and that other business lines may take years to develop.

Takeaways

  • The long-term opportunity described was growth in digital commerce and payments, but the speakers favored established or selectively chosen businesses over buying the sector indiscriminately.
  • For fintech and crypto-linked companies, the discussion highlighted business-model dependence and timing as risks.

Uber (UBER), DoorDash (DASH), and Delivery Hero

  • Uber was described as relatively resilient during the sell-off, and Sam included it in his buy-the-dip list. He argued it could remain undervalued even if Tesla took some share of its largest business segment.
  • The speakers viewed DoorDash’s reported acquisition of Instacart (CART) positively for DoorDash’s potential market position. They also said Uber’s acquisition of Delivery Hero could make more sense for Uber than pursuing Instacart.
  • These were opinions; the transcript did not provide deal terms or a price target.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s bullish case for Uber rested on its scale and perceived valuation, while competition remained a consideration.
  • For DoorDash, the potential benefit discussed was greater market consolidation; investors would still need to assess the cost and execution of any transaction.

AppLovin (APP), Reddit, and Advertising-Related Stocks

  • Advertising stocks were described as under pressure, with AppLovin grouped with other high-growth companies losing momentum.
  • The host noted that some stocks were falling back after catalysts failed to sustain their advances. AppLovin was also included among the technology stocks in bear-market territory in the episode’s market review.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested that investors were reassessing high-growth advertising companies amid broader risk aversion.
  • For AppLovin and similar stocks, the investment case depends on earnings and growth holding up, not simply on a prior strong share-price run.

Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), and Space-Related Stocks

  • Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile fell during the session. Sam said he would be interested in Rocket Lab around $20, but this was a personal conditional level rather than a formal target.
  • He also noted that high-risk growth stocks can fall early in a downturn and recover later than larger companies. The transcript did not provide a specific recommendation for AST SpaceMobile.

Takeaways

  • The discussion framed these as higher-risk growth investments that may experience large drawdowns.
  • The cited Rocket Lab level should not be read as assurance that the stock would be attractive or would recover there.

T1 Energy (TE)

  • Sam included T1 Energy in his buy-the-dip list, describing it as a highly speculative investment with a possible large upside if its solar manufacturing plans and contracted capacity succeed.
  • He also said it could lose most or all of its value, and suggested keeping any position small. The transcript did not establish a reliable probability or valuation for the upside scenario.

Takeaways

  • This was explicitly presented as a high-risk, potentially binary idea—not a core holding.
  • The discussion’s own caution was to limit exposure and recognize the possibility of a severe loss.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Cryptocurrency

  • Bitcoin fell below $77,000 during the session. The speakers linked weakness in crypto sentiment to a reported Binance-related hack and liquidations, while noting that Binance had said it would cover the losses.
  • The transcript also referred to crypto liquidations as a factor contributing to broader risk aversion. It did not give a Bitcoin price target or a clear buy/sell recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlighted exchange and liquidity risks as reasons crypto assets can fall sharply during market stress.
  • The cited Binance event was presented as a market concern; the episode did not establish a long-term view on Bitcoin’s value.

Gold, Energy, and Defensive Sectors

  • Gold was described as falling alongside Bitcoin and stocks during the session.
  • Energy and healthcare were relatively stronger; the host mentioned Chevron (CVX) and Eli Lilly (LLY) among the gainers. The guest also described consumer staples, energy, and utilities as areas attracting defensive flows.
  • Crude oil was reported around $102–$104 during the session, but no oil price target or specific energy-sector recommendation was provided.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested that investors were rotating toward defensive areas, but the session showed that traditional diversifiers such as gold could also decline.
  • Defensive-sector strength was presented as a short-term market pattern, not a guarantee of protection.

Other Stocks and Earnings Watchlist

  • The host mentioned Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Walmart (WMT), Palantir (PLTR), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), Arista Networks (ANET), Astera Labs (ALAB), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Lumentum (LITE), Zeta Global (ZETA), NewBank/Nubank (NU), DigitalOcean (DOCN), Toast (TOST), Shift4 (FOUR), FICO (FICO), SoundHound AI (SOUN), Ouster (OUST), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), Grab (GRAB), and Shopify (SHOP) as examples of stocks affected by the sell-off or upcoming earnings.
  • Marvell’s possible acquisition of Lumentum was discussed as a concern because a stock-funded deal could dilute Marvell shareholders. The potential transaction was not presented as confirmed.
  • The host also mentioned upcoming results from companies including Palantir, Apple, Shopify, Uber, Arm, Qualcomm, Super Micro Computer, AMD, SoundHound AI, Iren, and Nebius. Earnings were presented as possible catalysts, not guaranteed positive events.

Takeaways

  • The episode’s broad watchlist lesson was to distinguish company fundamentals from market-wide selling and to check whether upcoming results support expectations.
  • Unconfirmed acquisition reports and anticipated earnings should not be treated as established outcomes.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!