WORST DAY FOR THE MARKETS SINCE AUGUST 1ST | MARKET CLOSE
WORST DAY FOR THE MARKETS SINCE AUGUST 1ST | MARKET CLOSE
262 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 38 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider the current tech pullback a buying opportunity, particularly in high-quality names like Microsoft (MSFT), which could become attractive in the high $400s. For semiconductor exposure, watch for AMD (AMD) to successfully test its key support level around $157 before starting a position. Despite its recent drop, Robinhood (HOOD) presents a potential opportunity on a dip to the low $100s, supported by a new $160 analyst price target. For long-term investors, this pullback in NVIDIA (NVDA) could be an entry point, as institutional ownership remains relatively low. A potential share offering for Bitmine (BMNR) may create a prime buying opportunity if the stock is pushed down into the $30-$40 range.

Detailed Analysis

Market-Wide Insights & Themes

The host describes the market pullback as "healthy" and necessary after a significant run-up since August 1st. The sell-off was concentrated in high-growth, high-beta technology and AI stocks, while more defensive and value-oriented sectors saw green.

  • Key Theme: Rotation: There is a clear rotation of capital out of recent winners like NVIDIA, Palantir, and AMD and into safer, value-oriented stocks like Home Depot, Walmart, and Eli Lilly. This is seen as a defensive move by institutional investors.
  • Primary Catalyst: The main driver for the sell-off appears to be fear and uncertainty ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference. Investors are concerned he may not signal a rate cut, which could negatively impact growth stock valuations.
  • Bull Market Mentality: Despite the red day, the broader sentiment from analysts like Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is that this is the beginning of a new bull market, not a late-cycle top. Pullbacks are expected to be shallow and viewed as buying opportunities.

Takeaways

  • The market is currently in a "risk-off" mode, favoring safety over high growth. This trend could continue until there is more clarity from the Federal Reserve.
  • Investors should not panic over a single down day, as pullbacks are a normal part of a healthy market.
  • This could be an opportunity to re-evaluate portfolio allocation. Consider if you are over-exposed to the high-growth names that were hit hardest and if adding exposure to more defensive sectors is appropriate for your risk tolerance.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was down about 3.5% to $175. The host views this as part of the broader tech sell-off.
  • A Morgan Stanley report highlighted that NVIDIA is the most under-owned mega-cap tech stock by institutional investors relative to its size. The host interprets this as a bullish sign, suggesting there is a "wall of worry" for the stock to climb and more institutional money that could flow in.
  • The host mentioned successfully using a covered call strategy on NVIDIA, selling a call with a $185 strike price to generate income and hedge against a downturn.

Takeaways

  • Despite the pullback, the fact that many large institutions are underweight NVDA could provide a long-term tailwind as they may be forced to buy in later.
  • The upcoming earnings report is a major catalyst. The market will be watching to see if NVIDIA can continue to deliver massive growth.
  • For long-term investors, this pullback could be an entry point, but volatility is expected to remain high leading into earnings. For those already holding shares, selling covered calls could be a way to generate income during this period of consolidation.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock was down 9% to $157.75, a significant drop attributed to algorithmic selling, profit-taking after a huge run, and a recent high-profile short-seller report.
  • The host believes the correction is healthy, stating that a price of $220 would have been unsustainable. He reminds listeners that the company is still considered expensive by traditional metrics.
  • Technical analysis suggests that while the stock has broken down, there is a stronger support base in the $140 - $150 range.

Takeaways

  • PLTR is a high-beta, volatile stock. Investors must be prepared for sharp swings in both directions.
  • For long-term bulls who bought at much lower prices, this pullback may not be concerning. However, for newer investors, the risk is high.
  • If you believe in the long-term story but are worried about short-term volatility, consider waiting to see if the stock finds a stable base of support before adding to a position. Taking some profits after a massive run is also a valid strategy to manage risk.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • The stock corrected from recent highs of $550 down to $508.
  • The host highlighted a news story about a trader who made $8 million in profit from a $12 million bet against the stock using put options, illustrating the significant bearish sentiment that emerged.
  • Technical analysis suggests a potential retest of the $500 psychological level. If that level breaks, a further pullback to the $470-$480 range is possible.

Takeaways

  • Even a high-quality giant like Microsoft is not immune to market-wide tech sell-offs.
  • The $500 level is a key area to watch. A break below this could signal further short-term weakness.
  • For investors with a long-term horizon, a pullback into the high $400s could present a more attractive entry point.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock was down about 6.5% to $107.50.
  • Despite the drop, the company received a notable analyst upgrade from Bernstein, which raised its price target from $105 to $160.
  • The company also announced new "football contracts" for the NFL season, a potential new product catalyst.
  • Technical analysis suggests a "look above and fail" pattern on the monthly chart, which is a cautionary signal. The analyst advised against being overly aggressive with new bullish bets at this level after its massive run-up.

Takeaways

  • Robinhood has strong positive catalysts with the analyst upgrade and new product offerings, but the stock has run up significantly and is now facing technical resistance.
  • The stock is highly volatile. A pullback to the $90s or low $100s could offer a better entry point for those who believe in the company's turnaround.
  • Existing shareholders could consider strategies like covered calls to generate income while the stock consolidates.

AMD (AMD)

  • The stock fell from a recent 52-week high of $186 to $167.
  • The drop is part of the broader sell-off in semiconductor and high-growth names.
  • Technical analysis indicates the stock failed to break out past the $180s and is now in a pullback. The key support level to watch is $157.

Takeaways

  • After a powerful rally, AMD is taking a breather.
  • Investors looking to start or add to a position should watch the $157 support level. A hold at that level would be constructive for the stock's trend.

Other Mentioned Assets

  • Tesla (TSLA): The stock is in a critical spot. Technical analysis suggests it needs to stay above $325 to avoid a more significant downturn. Volatility is at a historic low, which could make long-term options (LEAPS) an interesting, though risky, play for those with a strong directional conviction.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR): The stock has been weak, with the host noting that CEO Michael Saylor's constant stock sales to buy Bitcoin are creating short-term pressure. A poll in the chat showed that over 50% of respondents were considering "leaving Saylor for Tom Lee" (i.e., favoring Ethereum proxies over Bitcoin proxies).
  • Bitmine (BMNR): This Ethereum treasury company is under pressure due to a massive $24 billion shelf offering that allows the company to issue new shares. Investors seem to be waiting for this dilution to happen, which could create a sharp drop to the $40 or even $30 level, which would likely be seen as a prime buying opportunity.
  • Ethereum (ETH): The cryptocurrency is testing a key resistance level from its 2024 high of around $4,100. A clean break above this could lead to a rapid move higher. Failure could result in a pullback to the $3,600 area.
  • Grab (GRAB): The host bought a small position on the dip around $5.07. He views it as a good international diversification play, as its business in Southeast Asia may be insulated from a US tech slowdown.
  • Intel (INTC): The stock was a rare winner, up 7% on news of a $2 billion investment from SoftBank and a potential equity stake from the US government as part of the CHIPS Act. This could signal a rotation within the semiconductor space.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - Red day 15:00 - Market Close 21:00 - What stage of the cycle 27:08 - Mike Wilson 41:38 - PLTR TA 53:25 - NVDA TA 1:02:15 - HOOD TA 1:05:15 - META TA 1:12:10 - GOOGL TA 1:16:30 - JPM TA 1:18:41 - SOFI TA 1:23:43 - RKLB TA 1:32:50 - AMD TA 1:36:52 - HIMS TA 1:40:53 - BMNR TA 1:47:50 - UNH TA 1:51:44 - RDDT TA 1:59:14 - NBIS TA 1:59:55 - OSCR TA 2:01:10 - CRVW TA 2:02:00 - LULU TA 2:03:07 - SBET TA 2:04:10 - TSLA TA 2:14:00 - MRVL TA 2:16:45 - GRAB TA 2:20:00 - OPEN TA 2:21:55 - GEV TA 2:23:59 - MSTR TA 2:31:00 - ETH TA 2:40:12 - Rapidfire 3:12:50 - Steve Joins
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!