WHITE HOUSE NOT RELEASING OCTOBER DATA, CISCO, DLO, SERV EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
WHITE HOUSE NOT RELEASING OCTOBER DATA, CISCO, DLO, SERV EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
178 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Opendoor (OPEN), as its CEO recently showed strong conviction by purchasing $1 million worth of stock at $8 per share. SoFi (SOFI) has shown technical strength by closing above its key resistance level of $32, which could signal a further move higher for the stock. A recent sector-wide sell-off in data center stocks may present a "buy the dip" opportunity in names like Nebius, which saw a recent purchase at $93.90. For a more stable investment in the data center theme, Cisco (CSCO) is an attractive option following its strong earnings report and positive future guidance. Finally, be aware of the healthy market rotation from tech into sectors like healthcare and financials, which could present new opportunities outside of technology stocks.

Detailed Analysis

Market Rotation (Investment Theme)

  • The speaker noted a "very, very healthy move in a bull market" where money is flowing out of high-growth technology stocks and into other sectors.
  • This is seen as a positive sign of "breadth" in the market, meaning more sectors are participating in the rally, not just tech.
  • Examples of this rotation include money moving from stocks like Palantir (PLTR) and Nebius into financials like JP Morgan (JPM) and healthcare/defensive names like Eli Lilly (LLY) and UnitedHealth (UNH).
  • Institutional investors were reported as net buyers last week, specifically rotating from tech into staples and healthcare.

Takeaways

  • Investors should not panic if their favorite tech stocks are seeing red days while the broader market (S&P 500) is green. This is a normal and healthy market rotation.
  • This could be an opportunity to look for value in sectors outside of technology that are starting to show strength, such as financials and healthcare.
  • The fact that the S&P 500 can be green while a major player like NVIDIA is red is a strong sign that the market rally is broadening, which is a bullish indicator for the overall market health.

Data Center & Cloud Computing Sector

  • Several "data center plays" like Nebius, CoreWeave (CoreWeb), and Iren were down significantly on the day.
  • The speaker attributes this sell-off to negative sentiment surrounding Oracle (ORCL), which fell 4% after issuing $40 billion in debt that the market did not seem to like.
  • The concern over corporate debt financing appears to be spilling over and affecting related stocks in the sector, including Meta (META).

Takeaways

  • The sell-off in data center stocks may be a sector-wide reaction to news from a single large player (Oracle) rather than a fundamental problem with each individual company.
  • This could present a "buy the dip" opportunity for investors who are bullish on the long-term growth of data centers and AI.
  • The speaker personally acted on this, mentioning a small purchase of Nebius at $93.90. He noted that a close above $94 would be a bullish technical signal, which the stock achieved.

Cisco (CSCO)

  • Cisco reported earnings that beat analyst expectations on both the top line (revenue) and bottom line (EPS).
    • EPS: $1.00 vs. $0.98 expected.
    • Revenue: $14.8 billion vs. $14.7 billion expected.
  • The company also provided strong forward guidance for the next quarter and the full fiscal year, which was better than the street expected.
  • CEO Chuck Robbins cited widespread demand for their technologies and a "multi-billion dollar campus refresh opportunity" as companies need to upgrade aging networking equipment.
  • The stock was up over 5% in after-hours trading following the positive report.

Takeaways

  • Cisco's strong results and guidance are a bullish sign for the networking and data center infrastructure space. It indicates that companies are continuing to spend on upgrading their technology.
  • As a major player in networking, Cisco's performance can be seen as a positive indicator for the broader AI and data center investment theme, even though it's considered a more "legacy" tech name.
  • Investors looking for a more stable, established company with exposure to the data center trend might find Cisco an attractive option, especially given its strong performance and positive outlook.

D-Local (DLO)

  • The stock was extremely volatile after hours, initially dropping over 10% before recovering most of the losses.
  • The company reported a "double beat" on earnings, exceeding expectations for both revenue and profit.
    • EPS: $0.17 vs. $0.16 expected (up 90% year-over-year).
    • Revenue: $282 million vs. $262 million expected (up 52% year-over-year).
  • The speaker was puzzled by the initial negative reaction, stating, "If these stocks are going to go on a discount after a good quarter, definitely is worth looking at."

Takeaways

  • The initial sharp drop on strong results could have been an overreaction or a "head fake." The subsequent recovery suggests the market began to digest the positive numbers.
  • For investors who believe in D-Local's business, such volatility can present a buying opportunity, allowing them to acquire shares at a temporary discount despite a strong quarterly report.
  • The discussion highlights a potential market inefficiency where a stock with strong growth metrics gets sold off, which could be attractive to value-oriented growth investors.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The stock had a strong day, closing above $32 at $32.21. The speaker noted this is potentially the first time in the company's history it has closed above that level.
  • This is seen as a significant technical milestone for the stock, which has struggled to hold this level in the past.
  • The speaker mentioned that he personally "bought the dip last week at around $28."

Takeaways

  • Closing and holding above a key resistance level like $32 can be a bullish signal for traders and technical analysts, potentially indicating a further move higher.
  • Investors who have been waiting for a confirmation of strength might see this as a positive sign. The speaker's own purchase at a lower price highlights the recent volatility and potential entry points.

Opendoor (OPEN)

  • The stock was up over 10% on the day.
  • The primary catalyst was a disclosure that the CEO, Kaz, purchased $1 million worth of stock at $8 per share.
  • Adding to the excitement, the co-founder reportedly made a public bet of $100,000 that Opendoor will be more valuable than Shopify (SHOP) by 2032, implying a target valuation of around $200 billion (from its current ~$7 billion).

Takeaways

  • Significant insider buying by a CEO is often considered a strong vote of confidence in the company's future prospects.
  • The co-founder's extremely bullish public bet, while speculative, adds to a narrative of high conviction from those who know the company best. This can generate significant retail investor interest.
  • Investors may see this as a signal that management believes the stock is undervalued and has massive long-term growth potential.

Zeta (ZETA)

  • The speaker initiated a small "tracking position" in Zeta at around $19.80.
  • The primary reason for the purchase was a "very compelling valuation" in a market that is otherwise seen as expensive.
  • The stock closed above $20, which was noted as an important level that the stock has struggled to hold in the past.

Takeaways

  • Zeta could be an under-the-radar opportunity for investors looking for growth at a reasonable price.
  • Starting with a small "tracking position" is a common strategy to get some skin in the game while you conduct deeper research on a company, which is what the speaker plans to do.
  • Investors interested in the name should be aware of a past short report and court case, which require due diligence.

Bitcoin (BTC) & MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • Bitcoin was trading just under $102,000.
  • An interesting trend was noted: "OG holders" who acquired Bitcoin back in 2010 are reportedly starting to sell at these high prices, which could be contributing to selling pressure.
  • When asked about MicroStrategy, the speaker stated that an investment thesis for MSTR is essentially a direct bet on the price of Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • An investor's decision to buy, hold, or sell MicroStrategy should be based almost entirely on their outlook for Bitcoin.
  • The fact that very early Bitcoin holders are taking profits is a noteworthy risk factor. While it's logical for them to sell, it increases the supply of coins on the market and could temper upward price movement in the short term.

Gambling Sector (Flutter, DraftKings)

  • Flutter (PDYPF), a major gambling stock, missed on revenue and user estimates and lowered its forward guidance, causing the stock to fall 5% after hours.
  • The speaker expressed a non-bullish view on the gambling sector as a whole.
  • He believes that the rise of prediction markets (like Kalshi and Polymarket) is attracting user interest and trading volume that might have otherwise gone to traditional sports betting platforms like Flutter and DraftKings.

Takeaways

  • The traditional online gambling sector may be facing new competition from prediction market platforms.
  • Flutter's miss on key metrics could be an early sign of this competitive pressure.
  • Investors in stocks like DraftKings and Flutter should monitor the growth and popularity of prediction markets as a potential long-term headwind for the sector.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!