Google (GOOGL) is a top pick after a "perfect quarter," with its clear AI monetization strategy leading some analysts to set price targets as high as $330. In contrast, Meta (META) presents a potential value opportunity for long-term believers after its stock dropped significantly on spending concerns, with some price targets remaining above $800. Keep an eye on Palantir (PLTR), which is showing strong momentum around the $200 level ahead of its pivotal earnings report on Monday. Amazon (AMZN) faces a key test with its upcoming earnings, where strong cloud growth could push the stock toward $240, while a miss could send it below $200. Investors should be cautious with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the short term, as they are showing unusual weakness despite a positive macro environment.

Meta Platforms (META)

• The stock was down significantly (around 11%), falling from the $750 range to below $660.
• Primary Reasons for the Drop:
  • Increased Spending: CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that capital expenditures (CapEx) for fiscal year 2026 will be "notably larger" than the current guidance. The market is punishing this aggressive spending, seemingly due to a lack of trust in Meta's AI strategy beyond its core advertising business.
  • $25 Billion Bond Sale: News broke that Meta is seeking to raise $25 billion in debt through a new bond offering. This is seen as a major reason for the stock's sharp decline, as the market dislikes financing heavy CapEx with debt. This will bring Meta's total debt to around $70 billion.
  • One-Time Tax Charge: The company took a $15-$16 billion one-time tax charge, which caused a massive EPS miss. They reported $1.06 per share versus $6.60 expected. Without this charge, EPS would have been a beat at around $7.25. The host believes this is not the main reason for the sell-off, as the market is "smart enough to move on from a tax charge."
• Contrarian/Bullish Viewpoints:
  • Strong Fundamentals: Despite the negative reaction, Meta's core business metrics were very strong. Revenue grew 26% year-over-year, ad impressions were up 14%, and price per ad was up 10%.
  • Attractive Valuation: Following the drop, the host notes the stock is trading at what seems to be a very cheap multiple, around 21 times fiscal year 2026 earnings.
  • Analyst Price Targets:
    • Bank of America lowered its price target from $900 to $810 but maintained a Buy rating, citing the stock's low valuation.
    • Rosenblatt raised its price target to $1,117, arguing that the return on AI investments supports the increased spending.

Takeaways

• Meta is facing a narrative overhang. The market is concerned about Zuckerberg's aggressive spending on AI and the metaverse, now financed with significant new debt, without a clear story of how it will pay off beyond improving ads.
• This creates a classic value vs. sentiment conflict. The company's growth is strong and its valuation is becoming very attractive, but the negative sentiment around its spending strategy is causing significant short-term pain.
• Investors who believe in Zuckerberg's long-term vision might see this as a buying opportunity ("a nibble"), as the host suggests. However, there's a risk that the stock could remain under pressure, similar to how Oracle was punished for its debt-fueled spending. The low for the day was mentioned as $654.

Google (GOOGL)

• Google had a "perfect quarter" and was a standout performer, up around 8% while the rest of the market was red.
• Key Highlights from Earnings:
  • Reported its first $100 billion revenue quarter.
  • Google Cloud growth was strong at 34% year-over-year.
  • Search revenue growth accelerated to 15% year-over-year.
  • AI Momentum: The Gemini AI model reached 650 million monthly active users, a significant increase from 450 million in the previous quarter.
  • Increased CapEx: Raised 2025 CapEx guidance from $85 billion to $93 billion, which the market viewed positively as a sign of confident investment in growth.
• Analyst View: Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $330.
• The host believes the stock is heading to $300.

Takeaways

• Google is successfully demonstrating a clear return on investment (ROI) from its AI initiatives, which is a key differentiator from Meta in the market's eyes.
• The stock's ability to stay green in a broadly red market shows significant relative strength and positive investor sentiment.
• For investors looking for AI exposure, Google is proving to be one of the "best Mag 7s" that is clearly showing the financial benefits of its AI strategy.

Palantir (PLTR)

• The stock hit a key psychological level of $200 overnight before pulling back to the $196-$199 range.
• The host and community sentiment is very bullish, with the host being "very grateful" for the momentum.
• An upcoming earnings report on Monday is highlighted as a "big day" and a major catalyst for the stock.

Takeaways

• Palantir is experiencing very strong momentum leading into its earnings report.
• The $200 level is a significant technical and psychological milestone. The ability to hold near this level into earnings is a sign of strength.
• The upcoming earnings call will be critical to see if the company's results can justify the recent run-up in the stock price.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• The stock pulled back from a high of $212 to around $203.
• US-China Deal Context: Trump's comments on the deal were discouraging for NVIDIA investors. He stated they would "continue to further discuss NVIDIA chip restrictions," specifically mentioning uncertainty around the Blackwell chips. The host is "less optimistic" about getting China revenue back in the next six months.
• J-PAL's Comments: Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that the current tech boom is different from the dot-com bubble because companies like NVIDIA "actually have earnings and... business models and profits."
• Valuation Context: The host notes that NVIDIA is now the 4th largest entity by market cap in the world, behind the US, China, and Japan, and is close to overtaking India's GDP. While this may sound "frothy," the underlying earnings growth makes the valuation seem reasonable.

Takeaways

• The potential for renewed chip restrictions with China remains a key risk and headwind for NVIDIA. Investors should not count on a quick return of China-related revenue.
• Despite the pullback, the underlying thesis remains strong, with even the Fed Chair acknowledging the legitimacy of the earnings and business models of today's tech giants.
• The stock's valuation is massive, but so is its growth. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between the staggering size of the company and its equally staggering financial performance.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

• Both cryptocurrencies are showing significant weakness. Bitcoin fell from $116,000 to $108,000 and was testing the $107,000 level.
• The weakness is confusing to the host, as it comes despite macro tailwinds like a Fed rate cut and potential US-China cooperation. He suspects "something deeper is going on."
• The 4-Year Cycle Debate: A discussion was had about whether the historical 4-year crypto boom-and-bust cycle will repeat in 2026. The argument is that with the influx of mainstream investors through ETFs (like IBIT) who are unaware of these cycles, the prophecy may not be as self-fulfilling as in the past.
• BMNR, an Ethereum treasury stock, was down due to the weakness in ETH. The host reiterated that the investment case for BMNR is purely a leveraged bet on the long-term success of Ethereum and tokenization.

Takeaways

• The crypto market is currently disconnected from positive macro news, indicating potential internal market weakness or a structural issue.
• Investors should be cautious in the short term, as the price action is weak.
• Long-term investors should consider the debate around the 4-year cycle. If the cycle breaks due to mainstream adoption, a "hold" strategy might be more viable than trying to time a cyclical peak and crash in 2026.

Other Stocks & Themes

Big Tech Earnings (General)

• Microsoft (MSFT): The stock was down around 3%. The reasons cited were a $3.1 billion OpenAI restructuring hit and Azure growth guidance that was slightly below the "whisper number," even though it was still a strong 40%. The host considers this a "nothing burger" and a much less severe issue than Meta's.
• Amazon (AMZN) & Apple (AAPL): Both have earnings after the bell. The host is focused on Amazon's AWS growth and operating margins, stating the stock could fall below $200 if AWS disappoints or rally to $240 if it beats. He sees Amazon as a 10-year hold due to its position in robotics and AI.
• Chipotle (CMG): The stock crashed 18% after earnings. The CEO stated that foot traffic from their core demographic (ages 25-34, income <$100k) is "significantly lower." This signals a potential structural problem for the business or weakness in that consumer segment.
• Roblox (RBLX): The stock was down over 10% despite beating on top and bottom lines. The drop is attributed to the company signaling increased spending on infrastructure to support future growth, which will weigh on margins.
• Oracle (ORCL): The stock has been a "disaster," falling from a high of $345 to $264. The host attributes this to the market's skepticism about its debt-financed spending and its reliance on a massive deal with OpenAI that has yet to materialize into revenue.
• US-China Relations: The market is skeptical of the "deal" announced by Trump because it has not been officially signed or confirmed by China. This uncertainty is acting as a drag on the overall market. The deal supposedly involves China buying more soybeans, resuming rare earth exports, and the US reducing some tariffs.