TSM CRUSHES EARNINGS, META TAKES ANOTHER APPLE EXEC, EARNINGS CONTINUE STRONG | MARKET OPEN
TSM CRUSHES EARNINGS, META TAKES ANOTHER APPLE EXEC, EARNINGS CONTINUE STRONG | MARKET OPEN
205 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has secured major deals with OpenAI and Oracle, validating its AI chip technology and creating a clear path for significant revenue growth. Consider Amazon (AMZN) as a long-term investment, as it is actively being purchased due to its discounted valuation and future robotics catalyst. As Wall Street embraces the tokenization of real-world assets, crypto-related stock Bitmine (BMNR) is a potential play, having recently received a $90 price target. Following Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSM) strong earnings, its US supply chain partner Amcor (AMCR) is a direct beneficiary of planned expansion. With multiple catalysts on the horizon, SoFi (SOFI) could be poised for a breakout with a potential re-rating into the mid-$30s.

Detailed Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM)

  • TSM delivered a very strong earnings report, signaling that the demand for AI chips is not slowing down.
  • Earnings Beat:
    • Revenue: $33.1 billion (versus $31.5 billion expected).
    • EPS (Earnings Per Share): $2.92 (versus $2.59 expected).
  • Strong Guidance: The company guided for Q4 revenue between $32 billion and $33.4 billion, with the high end beating the $32 billion estimate.
  • AI Dominance: High-performance AI chips (GPUs) accounted for a massive 57% of revenue, nearly doubling the 30% from smartphones. This is a major shift from smartphones historically being their largest segment.
  • US Expansion: TSM is planning to acquire a second major site in Arizona to expand its chip manufacturing capacity in the United States. This is seen as a very positive development.

Takeaways

  • The strong results from TSM are a bullish indicator for the entire semiconductor and AI sector, including companies like NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Micron (MU).
  • TSM's expansion in Arizona is a direct positive catalyst for companies in its US supply chain, particularly Amcor (AMCR).
  • The report confirms that the AI hardware boom is a powerful, ongoing trend. Investors with exposure to the AI theme should see this as a strong validation of the thesis.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir announced a new partnership with data-warehousing company Snowflake (SNOW).
  • The host described the partnership as "super bullish" for Palantir.
  • Interoperability: The partnership allows customers to use Palantir's software on top of their existing data in Snowflake. This removes a major barrier to adoption, as companies don't have to migrate their data to become a Palantir customer.
  • This strategy is expected to "massively accelerate" customer growth, especially in the commercial sector, which is a key growth driver for the company.

Takeaways

  • This partnership is a significant strategic move that could substantially widen Palantir's potential customer base.
  • It reinforces Palantir's strategy of becoming an integrated layer across different data platforms, rather than a closed-off competitor.
  • Investors should watch for an acceleration in commercial revenue growth in upcoming quarters as a sign of this strategy's success.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • OpenAI Partnership: In a massive deal, OpenAI is taking a 10% equity stake in AMD, tied to building out 6 gigawatts of data center capacity using AMD's chips.
  • Oracle Deal: AMD also secured a deal with Oracle (ORCL), which plans to buy 50,000 of its MI450 GPUs.
  • Guest Analyst's View: The guest analyst, Jose, believes the OpenAI deal opens a path for AMD to potentially become a trillion-dollar company. While giving up equity shows AMD is not the market leader, the deal validates its technology and strengthens its position in the supply chain.

Takeaways

  • The deals with OpenAI and Oracle are massive votes of confidence in AMD's AI chips and present a significant challenge to NVIDIA's market dominance.
  • These partnerships provide a clearer path to substantial revenue growth for AMD's data center segment.
  • For investors, AMD presents a higher-risk, higher-reward way to play the AI chip boom compared to the established leader, NVIDIA. The key will be execution on these large-scale deals.

Salesforce (CRM)

  • The stock rose over 6% following positive announcements at its Dreamforce conference.
  • Long-Term Guidance: Management guided for $60 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2030, which implies a faster growth rate than Wall Street was expecting.
  • Profitability Goal: The company is aiming for a "Rule of 50" (revenue growth % + profit margin % = 50) by 2030, an ambitious target above the industry standard "Rule of 40."
  • Google Partnership: Salesforce also expanded its partnership with Google (GOOGL) to integrate Gemini AI into its platform.
  • The host believes the stock is undervalued but questions if it's the most exciting name to own in the AI space.

Takeaways

  • Salesforce is trying to reignite its growth narrative with ambitious long-term targets and AI partnerships.
  • While the stock appears cheap, it may be an "opportunity cost" for investors seeking higher growth in the AI revolution.
  • The new guidance and partnerships provide a potential catalyst for a re-rating if the company can execute. Some on Wall Street see the stock reaching $300.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The CEO, Anthony Noto, appeared on CNBC's Mad Money and sounded "pretty damn bullish" about the company's prospects.
  • Crypto Relaunch: SoFi is bringing back crypto trading to its platform, with sign-ups beginning by November 30th, 2025.
  • Bullish Catalysts: The host identified several potential tailwinds for SoFi:
    • Strong earnings from other major banks suggest a healthy environment.
    • Potential interest rate cuts would be beneficial for its lending and refinancing businesses.
    • The return of crypto could attract more users and activity.
  • The main question for investors is whether the stock can finally break out and get a re-rating into the mid-$30s.

Takeaways

  • SoFi has multiple potential catalysts on the horizon that could drive growth and investor interest.
  • The strong performance of the broader banking sector this earnings season is a positive sign for SoFi's upcoming report.
  • The stock has been stagnant for a while; a strong earnings report and successful execution on its new initiatives could be what's needed to break the stock out of its range.

Ethereum (ETH) & Crypto-Related Stocks

  • Ethereum (ETH): The host highlighted a major, under-the-radar development: Alibaba's (BABA) payment platform, Alipay, with its 1.4 billion users, is now processing transactions on an Ethereum Layer-2 network. This is a massive real-world adoption case for the Ethereum ecosystem.
  • BMNR (Bitmine): Received a $90 price target from investment bank B. Riley. This is one of the first significant price targets from a Wall Street firm for the company.
  • SBIT (ETH Treasury): JMP Securities, a traditional finance firm, initiated coverage on this Ethereum treasury product. The host sees this as a sign that Wall Street is starting to take these new crypto-related assets more seriously.
  • Thesis: The underlying theme is that Wall Street is preparing for the tokenization of real-world assets on blockchains, with Ethereum being the likely platform of choice. This makes ETH and related treasury products like BMNR and SBIT potential long-term plays on this trend.

Takeaways

  • Real-world adoption of Ethereum by giants like Alipay is a powerful long-term bullish signal that goes beyond crypto price speculation.
  • Investors looking for exposure to the tokenization trend could consider direct investment in ETH or through related stocks like BMNR, Coinbase (COIN), or Robinhood (HOOD).
  • The increasing attention from Wall Street firms could bring more capital and legitimacy to these assets.

Data Centers & Energy

  • This was identified as a major investment theme driven by the AI build-out.
  • The Problem: The massive energy consumption of AI data centers is causing electricity prices to spike significantly (up to 267%) in surrounding areas. This is leading to pushback from local communities, which could complicate or slow down the AI build-out.
  • The Opportunity: This energy demand creates a massive opportunity for energy and infrastructure companies.
    • Nuclear Power: Stocks like Oklo (OKLO) are gaining attention as potential solutions for providing clean, consistent power to data centers.
    • Bitcoin Miners: Companies that were previously Bitcoin miners are pivoting to become AI data center providers (IREN, CLSK, MARA, etc.). These stocks have seen huge runs but were experiencing a pullback during the podcast.
    • Picks & Shovels: The host mentioned the idea of investing in companies like Caterpillar that provide the heavy equipment needed to build the data centers themselves.

Takeaways

  • Investing in the energy and infrastructure required for AI is a key derivative play on the AI revolution.
  • This theme carries risks, including local community opposition to data center construction and the high volatility of former Bitcoin mining stocks.
  • Investors could gain exposure through nuclear energy stocks, data center infrastructure companies, or even traditional industrial companies involved in construction. The guest analyst Jose noted he is de-risking from some of the higher-flying names in this space due to the massive run-ups.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The host is actively buying Amazon (AMZN) shares, viewing the company as a "safe" long-term investment.
  • Valuation: The host highlighted that Amazon trades at a significant discount based on its EBITDA multiple (17x) compared to the average of the Magnificent Seven (40x).
  • Robotics Catalyst: A key, under-discussed catalyst is the potential for robotics to dramatically improve operating margins in Amazon's e-commerce business. Even small margin improvements could add tens of billions to its net income.
  • Healthcare Expansion: The company continues to push into healthcare with its One Medical service, now offering pay-per-visit options for children.

Takeaways

  • Amazon is presented as a relatively undervalued and less risky way to invest in big tech and AI compared to some of its peers.
  • The investment thesis is long-term, based on its dominant market position, discounted valuation, and future catalysts like robotics.
  • Investors should not expect immediate, explosive gains but rather view it as a solid, long-term holding.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Intro 04:18 - TSM 08:34 - Salesforce 21:00 - Palantir 26:19 - Macro 44:00 - Market Open 1:42:00 - Fed Comments 1:50:00 - Jose Joins
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!