TRUMP WANTS A CHINA DEAL, TECH EARNINGS START THIS WEEK | MARKET OPEN
TRUMP WANTS A CHINA DEAL, TECH EARNINGS START THIS WEEK | MARKET OPEN
201 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 23 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

With strong early sales for the iPhone 17 and new analyst price targets reaching as high as $310, Apple (AAPL) fundamentals support its recent move to all-time highs. Consider SoFi (SOFI) ahead of its earnings report, as expectations are high for record member growth and a significant revenue beat driven by a strong banking environment. The AI infrastructure build-out continues to accelerate, reinforcing the long-term bull case for NVIDIA (NVDA) and key suppliers like Super Micro Computer (SMCI). For leveraged exposure to Ethereum (ETH), BitMine (BMNR) is highlighted as a market leader with a $90 price target from B. Riley. Look for a potential buying opportunity in Amazon (AMZN), as its stock has lagged significant profit growth, with a drop below $200 seen as a prime entry point.

Detailed Analysis

Apple (AAPL)

  • Multiple analyst upgrades were mentioned, with one firm raising its price target on Apple to $275 and another to $310.
  • The host notes that these are the first $300+ price targets seen in a long time.
  • Early sales data for the new iPhone 17 series is described as "pretty damn juicy."
  • CounterPoint Research reported that the iPhone 17 series outsold the iPhone 16 by 14% in its opening week.
  • The stock hit a new all-time high of $261.57 during the broadcast, which the host views as a healthy and justified market move based on strong fundamentals.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The discussion around Apple is overwhelmingly positive, driven by strong initial sales of the new iPhone and optimistic analyst ratings.
  • Fundamental Strength: The move to all-time highs is seen as justified by real-world performance (iPhone sales), not just market hype. This suggests a fundamentally sound investment.
  • Upgrade Cycle Catalyst: The strong performance of the iPhone 17 suggests a successful upgrade cycle is underway, which could be a significant tailwind for revenue and earnings in the coming quarters.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced a major outage in its US-East-1 region (Northern Virginia), affecting numerous popular services including Robinhood, Coinbase, Snapchat, and others.
  • The host views this outage as a long-term bullish indicator, as it demonstrates how deeply the global internet infrastructure relies on AWS. The incident highlights Amazon's critical role and moat.
  • A potential bear case is that the recurring outages could push some customers to competitors like Google Cloud (GCP) or Microsoft Azure.
  • The host points out a potential valuation disconnect: Amazon has quadrupled its operating income since 2021, but the stock is only up 12% in that period, suggesting a "narrative issue" that could present a buying opportunity.
  • Earnings are scheduled for the following week. The key metric to watch will be any acceleration in AWS growth.
  • The host mentioned that if the stock were to fall below $200, it would be a prime opportunity to build a position for 2026.

Takeaways

  • Contrarian Bullish View: While an outage seems negative, the key insight is that it reinforces Amazon's dominance. The world's dependence on AWS is a powerful long-term tailwind.
  • Valuation Opportunity: The stock's performance has lagged its operational profit growth, which could signal that it is undervalued relative to its fundamentals. A change in market narrative could lead to a rapid price re-rating.
  • Short-Term Risk, Long-Term Gain: The outage may cause some short-term financial impact (e.g., issuing credits to customers) and negative headlines, but it doesn't appear to damage the long-term investment thesis.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • CEO Jensen Huang announced that NVIDIA and TSM have produced the first wafer for their advanced Blackwell AI chip in the United States.
  • Jensen Huang is quoted as being very bullish, stating that the world is in the "beginning of the early cycles" of AI-related capital expenditure (CapEx).
  • JP Morgan released a report supporting this view, stating that Jensen's prediction of AI CapEx growing from $600 billion to $3.4 trillion by 2030 is "feasible."
  • The report also identified energy infrastructure as the next major bottleneck for AI growth, which is a bullish signal for the energy sector.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on AI Supercycle: The discussion strongly supports the idea that the massive build-out of AI infrastructure is just getting started. This provides a long-term growth runway for NVIDIA and the entire semiconductor ecosystem.
  • Onshoring Production: The move to manufacture advanced chips in the U.S. is a significant strategic development, aligning with geopolitical trends and potentially de-risking the supply chain.
  • Valuation Context: The host notes that despite its run-up, NVIDIA trades at a reasonable forward earnings multiple (around 27x), especially compared to other large-cap stocks like Costco, suggesting it may not be as overvalued as some fear.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The host is personally bullish on SoFi and announced his intention to buy 500 shares before their upcoming earnings report.
  • Bull Case:
    • Expectations for a record number of new members in the quarter.
    • Belief that net income will be higher than Wall Street expectations.
    • Potential for revenue growth to hit 35-40%, well above the consensus estimate of 29%.
    • The broader banking sector (JPMorgan, BlackRock, etc.) has reported very strong earnings, which should be a positive indicator for SoFi.
    • Upcoming interest rate cuts from the Fed are a major tailwind for lending businesses.
  • Bear Case: The main risk mentioned is valuation, as the stock had already risen 70% in the three months prior to the discussion, setting a very high bar for the earnings report.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk, High-Reward Earnings Play: The sentiment is very bullish on the fundamentals, but the recent price action means the company needs to deliver a near-perfect earnings report to sustain momentum.
  • Multiple Catalysts: SoFi is positioned to benefit from strong company-specific execution (member growth), positive industry trends (strong bank earnings), and a favorable macroeconomic environment (impending rate cuts).
  • Key Metric to Watch: The host highlights the growth of Galileo, SoFi's fintech-as-a-service platform, as a key factor for the stock to reach the next level ($35-$40 range).

Ethereum (ETH) & Digital Asset Treasuries

  • Ethereum (ETH): The price was noted to be holding above $4,000. The discussion centered more on companies that hold Ethereum as a treasury asset.
  • BitMine (BMNR):
    • The company, led by Tom Lee, purchased an additional 203,000 ETH over the weekend, viewing the recent price dip as an "attractive risk to reward."
    • Their total holdings are now 3.24 million ETH, representing 2.7% of the total supply.
    • B. Riley has a $90 price target on BMNR, believing they will increase their holdings to 7.2% of Ethereum's total supply by the end of 2026.
    • BMNR is highlighted as a "winner" in the space because it is one of the few digital asset treasuries that trades at a premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV), allowing it to raise capital effectively.
  • Other Treasuries (SBED, FGNexus): The host cautions against investing in other, smaller Ethereum treasuries, noting that many have lost their premium to NAV and are struggling to raise capital.

Takeaways

  • Pick the Winners: The key insight is to focus on the market leaders in the digital asset treasury space, identified here as BitMine (BMNR) for Ethereum and MicroStrategy (MSTR) for Bitcoin, as they have a structural advantage in their ability to raise capital.
  • Leveraged Bet on Ethereum: Investing in a company like BMNR is a leveraged way to gain exposure to Ethereum. The stock's performance is highly correlated to the price of ETH but can also be influenced by the company's ability to manage its treasury and the market's perception of its strategy (i.e., its premium to NAV).

Other Investment Opportunities & Themes

  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI):
    • The stock was up over 5% on rumors of a contract with xAI.
    • Takeaway: The thesis is that as demand for GPUs (NVIDIA) continues to soar, the demand for the server racks and liquid cooling technology that SMCI provides must also grow. This could lead to a re-rating of the stock, similar to what happened with Micron (MU).
  • CleanSpark (CLSK):
    • The stock jumped over 11% after hiring an industry veteran to lead a new AI Data Centers division.
    • Takeaway: This represents a strategic pivot from being a pure Bitcoin miner to becoming a broader data center and AI infrastructure play, tapping into the massive AI CapEx trend. This is a bullish development.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB):
    • The stock was up after the Secretary of Transportation announced that the government contract to return to the moon, currently held by SpaceX, is being opened up for bids from other companies.
    • Takeaway: This presents a massive potential opportunity for Rocket Lab. Winning even a piece of this contract would be transformative for a company of its size.
  • China De-escalation:
    • President Trump's comments expressing a desire to "help China" and de-escalate the trade war were seen as a major bullish catalyst for the market.
    • Takeaway: Any progress towards a U.S.-China trade deal would remove a significant overhang from the market and could fuel a rally, especially given strong Chinese GDP growth figures (5.2% in Q3).
  • Gold:
    • The price has rallied significantly, with central banks (especially Poland) being major buyers. Holdings as a percentage of central bank assets are at a 30-year high.
    • Takeaway: The host questions if Gold is in a bubble, noting the strange dynamic of gold rising (signaling inflation fears) while bond yields fall (signaling deflation fears). It's a crowded trade that investors should be cautious of.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - China 08:20 - Hasset Speaks 15:49 - AWS 44:00 - Market Open, but AWS created a bunch of issues
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!