TRUMP GETS RID OF THE 20% IRAN FEE, SOFTWARE REBOUNDS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY  | MARKET CLOSE
TRUMP GETS RID OF THE 20% IRAN FEE, SOFTWARE REBOUNDS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
14 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should prioritize Micron (MU) as a top pick, with analysts expecting memory pricing power to drive growth through 2027. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction trade with a technical target of $240, provided it maintains support at the $211 level. Within the software sector, shift focus toward cybersecurity leaders like Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD), which are outperforming as enterprises prioritize security over general software. Bitcoin (BTC) shows a clear path toward the $70k-$71k range following cooling inflation data and upcoming legislative catalysts. For short-term gains, watch Robinhood (HOOD) for a potential breakout to $133 if it holds support at $108 heading into its next earnings report.

Detailed Analysis

Semiconductor & AI Hardware Sector

The transcript highlights a significant divergence within the semiconductor space. While some names are struggling, memory and AI hardware are seeing massive institutional interest.

  • SK Hynix (SKHSY/ADR): Experienced a massive 27% surge in a single day. It is currently trading at a 50% premium to its South Korean counterpart, driven by a new Barclays "Overweight" call with a $330 price target citing its leadership in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
  • Micron (MU): Mentioned as a top pick by Bank of America analysts. The bull case is that memory pricing power will increase for the next 18 months due to a lack of high-end DRAM supply. Analysts suggest peak earnings won't arrive until 2027 or 2028.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Rebounded 4% ($210 billion in market cap gain). Technical analysis suggests a potential run back to all-time highs ($240 range) before its next earnings report, provided it holds the $211 support level.
  • Aehr Test Systems (AEHR): Surged over 20% after-hours following a record quarterly booking of $60.7 million and guidance for 260-300% growth by fiscal 2027. This is viewed as a bullish signal for the broader photonics and silicon carbide sector.
  • Other Mentions: AMD received a price target hike from KeyBank to $725 (up from $530). Broadcom (AVGO) is showing a constructive bounce off $357 support, with a target of $428-$450 into earnings.

Takeaways

  • Buy the Memory Dip: Analysts suggest Micron is a strong buy as it transitions from a cyclical to a secular growth story driven by AI.
  • Watch Photonics: The strong results from AEHR could lift related names like Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI).
  • ADR Caution: Be wary of the SK Hynix ADR premium; the 50% gap between the US and Korean shares may eventually close through a US pullback or Korean catch-up.

Software & Cybersecurity

Software stocks saw high volatility following a "bad" preliminary report from IBM, though cybersecurity names decoupled and moved higher.

  • IBM (IBM): The stock took a major hit after reporting that clients are pausing software and CapEx deals to prioritize AI infrastructure.
  • Cybersecurity (PANW, CRWD, ZS): Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler all rallied. The context provided was that while general software is being paused, IBM noted that enterprises are increasingly concerned with cybersecurity in the AI era, driving spend toward these specific platforms.
  • Palantir (PLTR): Rebounded from $122 to $133. Technical resistance is noted at $135-$143. It is viewed as "decidedly neutral" until it can break through $160 on earnings.
  • ServiceNow (NOW): Down 5% on the day. Analysts suggest it is stuck in a range and unlikely to break out significantly before its earnings report.

Takeaways

  • Cybersecurity Resilience: Cybersecurity remains the "safe haven" within the software sector as AI risks force companies to maintain or increase security budgets.
  • Range-Bound Trading: For names like Palantir and ServiceNow, the recommendation is to sell premium (options strategies) rather than making directional bets, as they are expected to remain sideways until earnings.

The "NeoCloud" & Data Center Trade

A new regulatory headwind emerged for data center operators, specifically in New York.

  • Nebius (NBIS) & CoreWeave: Both stocks fell (5% and 4% respectively). The decline is attributed to a one-year moratorium in New York State on building large-scale data centers due to environmental and energy concerns.
  • Nebius (NBIS): Despite the drop, the company announced a $1 billion deal with Reflection and is expanding data centers in India. Technical support is identified at the $180-$185 level.

Takeaways

  • Regulatory Risk: The New York moratorium may be a "sentiment breaker" if other states follow suit, though the impact on global players like Nebius is likely limited.
  • Support Levels: CoreWeave is sitting on support at $80. If it holds, a relief bounce is expected into late August earnings.

Cryptocurrency (BTC & ETH)

Sentiment is turning bullish due to cooling inflation data (CPI) and legislative progress.

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Trading around $64.5k. Technical analysts see a "clear path" to $70k-$71k, though $75k remains major overhead resistance.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Showing strength with a technical target of $2,100 (if it stays above $2,000).
  • The Clarity Act: Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated the bill for crypto market stability could reach the Senate floor in late July, providing a tailwind for the sector.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Momentum: The combination of a "good" CPI (3.5% vs 3.8% expected) and the Clarity Act timeline makes crypto a "risk-on" favorite for the next few weeks.
  • MSTR & RIOT: MicroStrategy (MSTR) and CleanSpark (CLSK) are moving in tandem with BTC, with CleanSpark seeing a 6% gain on rumors of new deals.

Other Notable Opportunities

  • Robinhood (HOOD): Breaking through $113. Analysts are very bullish on Q2 numbers, suggesting a potential pop to $133 post-earnings if it holds the $108 support level.
  • Lucid (LCID): The stock crashed 50% on bankruptcy rumors before the CEO denied them; it closed down 16%. Analysts remain skeptical of the long-term viability without Saudi intervention.
  • SpaceX (Private/Secondary): Trading near its "IPO" listing price of $135. A major risk factor mentioned is the upcoming lock-up expiration, where employees and VCs may sell shares, creating significant sell-side pressure.
  • Banking (JPM, GS): Goldman Sachs surged 9% on stellar earnings. The sector is currently at 52-week highs, with Bank of America (BAC) also performing well.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - AEHR Earnings and Market Close 39:48 - SPY TA 46:12 - NBIS TA 50:54 - NVDA TA 55:30 - ORCL TA 1:05:02 - MU TA 1:12:15 - RKLB TA 1:18:15 - IBM TA 1:21:39 - PLTR TA 1:24:53 - HOOD TA 1:28:59 - CRWV IREN TA 1:39:04 - AMD TA 1:40:55 - AVGO TA 1:41:00 - MRVL TA 1:43:30 - GLW TA 1:46:15 - RDDT TA 1:48:02 - SOFI TA 1:49:50 - QCOM TA 1:51:45 - NOK TA 1:56:00 - OKLO TA 1:58:21 - WULF TA 2:00:42 - GOOGL TA 2:03:40 - AMZN TA 2:07:00 - META TA 2:10:30 - TSLA TA 2:12:07 - MSFT TA 2:14:00 - TSM TA 2:18:00 - Rapid Fire
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!