TRUMP FIRES THE HEAD OF BLS, SPY FALLS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A MONTH, RED DAY | MARKET CLOSE
TRUMP FIRES THE HEAD OF BLS, SPY FALLS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A MONTH, RED DAY | MARKET CLOSE
280 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider the recent market pullback a buying opportunity, as analysts view this as a normal dip after a strong rally. The significant drop in Amazon (AMZN) may be an attractive entry point, given its advertising business grew a robust 22%, outpacing competitors. With an average analyst price target of $130, Robinhood (HOOD) is considered undervalued below $100 following its strong earnings. Another high-conviction idea is Grab (GRAB), which is seen as significantly undervalued due to its strong balance sheet and rapid growth. Finally, despite a recent pullback, Ethereum (ETH) is expected to surpass the $4,000 level, presenting a potential opportunity for crypto investors.

Detailed Analysis

S&P 500 (SPY)

  • The market experienced its first significant red day in over a month, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.64%. This was the first 1% move (either up or down) in 25 days.
  • The sell-off was primarily triggered by a surprisingly weak jobs report, which included significant downward revisions for previous months.
  • The host notes that this pullback is relatively minor compared to the market's 30% drop in April, suggesting it's a manageable decline after a strong July.
  • Tom Lee of Fundstrat was quoted as saying this is a "normal dip" and an opportunity to "buy the dip," viewing it as a healthy digestion of the market's 28% gain since the April lows.

Takeaways

  • Long-term investors may view this pullback as a buying opportunity, as the underlying reasons for the market's strength (strong corporate earnings, AI tailwinds) remain intact.
  • The weak jobs data has significantly increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 91%, which is historically bullish for stocks.
  • Investors should be prepared for potential further volatility in August and September, which are historically weaker months for the market. The host emphasizes the importance of emotional discipline during these periods.

Magnificent Seven & Big Tech

  • General Sentiment: Despite the red day, the underlying earnings for Big Tech were described as "phenomenal." The host believes the AI revolution provides a massive tailwind for these companies.
  • Valuation Debate: A guest professor expressed a bearish view, stating the Mag 7 stocks are "overstretched" and not as great as the market thinks. The host disagreed, arguing that their strong earnings justify their valuations.
  • Apple (AAPL): Down 2.4% despite a strong earnings report and 13% iPhone sales growth. The market's concern is that Apple is "years behind" in the AI race. The consensus is that Apple needs to make a significant AI-related acquisition to catch up, with Perplexity being mentioned as a possibility.
  • Amazon (AMZN): Had a "nasty day," falling 8.2%. The drop was attributed to concerns about slowing growth in its cloud division (AWS), even though it beat expectations. The host highlighted a major positive: Amazon's advertising business grew 22%, outpacing Google, Meta, and Microsoft.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Closed at $173, down 2.3%. The host remains bullish, stating that the massive growth of companies like OpenAI (which just raised money at a $300 billion valuation) creates sustained demand for NVIDIA's chips.
  • Meta (META): Dropped from $780 to $750. The host noted that nothing fundamentally changed for the company in one day, and the drop was likely due to broad market selling rather than company-specific news.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Described as the "Scotty Scheffler of tech" with "monster results." Dan Ives of Wedbush believes the stock is on a path to a $5 trillion market cap by 2026.

Takeaways

  • The sell-off in top tech names like AAPL and AMZN could present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in their long-term growth stories, as the price drops were not tied to poor performance.
  • Apple's next moves in AI are critical. Investors should watch for announcements regarding AI strategy or acquisitions, as this is the primary concern holding the stock back.
  • The continued growth of private AI companies like OpenAI directly benefits semiconductor companies, providing a strong, long-term tailwind for names like NVIDIA and AMD.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock was volatile, recovering from a low of $93 to over $104 before closing below $100, down 3% for the day.
  • The host's mother demonstrated an advanced options strategy, closing out covered calls for a large profit when the stock dipped to $93, and then selling new, short-term calls when it rebounded to $103 to collect more premium.
  • The host believes the stock should not be trading below $100 given its recent "crushed" earnings report.
  • HOOD is considered a potential candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500. The average analyst price target is $130.

Takeaways

  • The stock's dip appears to be driven by overall market weakness rather than company-specific issues, which could be an opportunity for believers in the company.
  • The story of the host's mother illustrates how active investors can use options (specifically covered calls) to generate income and manage positions during volatile periods.
  • Potential inclusion in the S&P 500 could act as a future catalyst for the stock.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Earnings are scheduled for Monday after the market closes, making it a highly anticipated event for the stock.
  • The stock is entering this earnings report at a much higher valuation ($370 billion market cap) than in previous quarters, raising the stakes for a strong performance.
  • A guest, Steve, expressed caution, noting that a significant portion of Palantir's net income comes from interest on its cash balance. Future Fed rate cuts could compress this income, making it harder to beat EPS estimates in 2026.
  • Steve warned that if earnings are not "outright impressive," the stock could see a "violent move to the downside."
  • Analyst price targets are widely dispersed, from a low of $40 to a high of $175, with the average at $111.

Takeaways

  • Investors should be prepared for significant volatility following Monday's earnings report. The high valuation means the company needs to deliver a very strong report and positive guidance to satisfy the market.
  • Pay close attention to revenue growth and customer count, but also be aware of the composition of its net income (operating income vs. interest income) for a fuller picture of its financial health.

UnitedHealth (UNH)

  • The stock has been hit hard, down 5% on the day and 16% on the week, trading at 5-year lows around $237.
  • The decline is attributed to a second major leadership change since May and ongoing headline risk from a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation.
  • From a valuation perspective, the host called it "stupidly cheap" at 8 times free cash flow.
  • However, the guest Steve advised against buying it now, calling it "dead money" with too much downward momentum and uncertainty. He would only consider it if the dividend yield rose to 5%.

Takeaways

  • UNH presents a classic value trap dilemma. While the valuation is historically low, the negative catalysts (DOJ investigation, management turnover) and strong downward price momentum pose significant risks.
  • Conservative investors may want to wait for the negative headlines to clear and for the stock to show signs of stabilization before considering a position. A potential indicator for a bottom could be the dividend yield reaching the 5% level mentioned by the guest.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • Bitcoin (BTC): The price has fallen to around $113,000 from $123,000 two weeks prior. This drop contributed to a 9% decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Tom Lee of Fundstrat is very bullish, stating it's "just a matter of time" before it surpasses the $4,000 level. He believes there are plenty of new buyers for ETH above that price.
  • Coinbase (COIN): The stock had a terrible week, down 19% after reporting a Q2 revenue miss and lower-than-expected trading volumes.

Takeaways

  • The crypto market is experiencing a broad pullback along with equities. For crypto bulls, this could be a buying opportunity.
  • The guest Steve noted that the time to buy crypto-related assets like MSTY (the MicroStrategy YieldMax ETF) is when Bitcoin tanks, not when it's rallying.
  • Tom Lee's bullish stance on Ethereum suggests that institutional interest and positive narratives around the asset remain strong despite the short-term price drop.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Grab (GRAB): The host is very bullish, buying 500 more shares. He highlighted its strong balance sheet (40% of its market cap is cash) and rapid EBITDA growth (50%). He believes the stock is significantly undervalued.
  • SoFi (SOFI): Down 6% on the day. The stock has received numerous analyst upgrades after its strong earnings, with an average price target of $18.
  • YieldMax ETFs (e.g., NVDY, MSTY): These ETFs offer high dividends by selling covered calls on underlying stocks. The host warns that they are risky and can fall sharply if the underlying stock weakens. They are best suited for volatile stocks that are expected to trade in a range or trend upwards over time.
  • Gold (GLD): Was up 2% on the day. This suggests a "flight to safety" where investors sold stocks and moved into traditional safe-haven assets amidst the market turmoil and geopolitical news.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - Trump fires BLS head 15:00 - Market Close 30:45 - Jobs data 48:42 - Steve Joins
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!