TRUMP BIG ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY, AMD DOWN 5%, UBER, DISNEY, SHOPIFY EARNINGS | MARKET OPEN
TRUMP BIG ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY, AMD DOWN 5%, UBER, DISNEY, SHOPIFY EARNINGS | MARKET OPEN
276 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 52 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Palantir (PLTR), as its strong growth in enterprise AI prompted the analyst to buy more shares at $169 despite its high valuation. The recent drop in AMD (AMD) stock could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors ahead of its new MI350 chip launch expected to drive growth in the second half of the year. For those with a long-term horizon, Grab (GRAB) is presented as a high-conviction, undervalued monopoly in Southeast Asia. Despite its recent surge, Shopify (SHOP) is viewed as a core long-term holding and a dominant force in e-commerce worth a deeper look. Finally, strong earnings from Arista Networks (ANET) and Astera Labs (ALAB) confirm the massive build-out of AI infrastructure, supporting the bullish case for the entire sector.

Detailed Analysis

Shopify (SHOP)

  • The host described Shopify's earnings as an absolute "demolition," with the stock jumping 15-22% on the news.
  • Key Earnings Metrics:
    • Revenue Growth: +31%
    • Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Growth: +30.6% year-over-year
    • Free Cash Flow: $422 million
  • The host expressed strong bullish sentiment, calling it a "sleep well at night" company and regretting not investing in it earlier this year.
  • The company's success is seen as a strong indicator of consumer health, proving that shoppers are willing to buy from independent merchants, not just Amazon.
  • Management, led by CEO Toby Lütke and President Harley Finkelstein, was highly praised for their passion and long-term vision.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Thesis: Shopify is a dominant force in the e-commerce space, second only to Amazon, and is poised for long-term growth as online shopping continues to expand.
  • Investment Horizon: The host suggested that Shopify is a company that should be larger in a decade, making it a potential long-term holding.
  • Valuation: While the stock is more expensive now after its recent run-up, the host believes it is worth a "deep dive" for investors due to its strong performance and market position.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir showed significant strength, with its stock breaking through multiple key resistance levels, including $175, $176, and reaching a new all-time high of $180 during the podcast.
  • The host noted that the company's recent earnings were universally praised, with the only common concern from analysts being its high valuation.
  • The host personally bought more shares at $169 after the earnings report, believing the growth story is too strong to ignore.
  • Key Drivers:
    • The company's incredible growth is being compared to NVIDIA's trajectory.
    • The high valuations of private AI companies like OpenAI (reportedly seeing secondary share sales at a $500 billion valuation) are providing a tailwind for Palantir's valuation.
    • The host believes the market is willing to pay a premium for Palantir because its growth is expected to continue, with a potential for 50% growth in Q3.
  • The host strongly defended the company and its CEO, Alex Karp, against critics, arguing that their long-term mission-oriented focus is now paying off and that the market's valuation is a reflection of institutional money recognizing the company's unique position in enterprise AI.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Thesis: Palantir is a key winner in the enterprise AI space. Its growth is accelerating, and despite a high valuation, the market is rewarding its execution. The thesis is a bet on continued, NVIDIA-like growth and the leadership of Alex Karp.
  • Investor Sentiment: The stock is experiencing extreme bullish momentum, driven by both retail and, increasingly, institutional investors.
  • Risk Factor: The primary risk mentioned is the stock's aggressive valuation. A slowdown in its growth trajectory could lead to a significant price correction. However, the host seems to believe the growth will be sustained for the foreseeable future.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

  • AMD's stock was down significantly, falling 5-9% following its earnings report.
  • Earnings Context:
    • The company met EPS expectations and beat revenue forecasts.
    • The main point of concern was the Data Center revenue growth of 14% year-over-year, which was viewed as "weak" and "not that exciting" in the current AI boom.
  • The host and guest analyst Jose believe the market was overhyped going into the earnings print, expecting faster growth than was realistic for the current product cycle.
  • Future Outlook:
    • The new MI350 chip series is expected to drive a re-acceleration of growth in the second half of the year.
    • Guidance for Q3 was strong and notably did not include potential revenue from China, which could provide a future upside surprise.

Takeaways

  • Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish: The stock is taking a hit due to disappointing data center growth. However, the long-term thesis remains intact, with new products expected to fuel growth in the coming quarters.
  • Investment Insight: This could be a "humbling moment" for overly optimistic bulls. The stock is not the "next NVIDIA" in terms of growth pace, but it remains a key player in the AI space. The current dip could be a buying opportunity for investors with a longer time horizon who believe in the upcoming product cycle.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple's stock was up 4.5% on the day.
  • The primary catalyst was a Bloomberg report that President Trump would be making an announcement about Apple adding $100 billion to its U.S. manufacturing investments.
  • This move is interpreted as a strategic play by CEO Tim Cook to strengthen the company's relationship with the administration and potentially get exemptions from tariffs, particularly on iPhones manufactured in India.
  • Apple also recently made a $400 million investment in rare earth mineral company MP Materials (MP).

Takeaways

  • Political Catalyst: Apple's stock is currently being driven by positive political news. The potential $100 billion U.S. investment is seen as a major positive that could de-risk the company from geopolitical trade tensions.
  • Strategic Moves: Apple is actively making investments to secure its supply chain and navigate the political landscape, which is crucial for a company of its scale.

Other Notable Mentions

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

  • The stock was down 17-20% after what the host called "not good" earnings.
  • The company missed on both revenue and EPS, but the most significant issue was the decline in gross margins to 9.5%.
  • Takeaway: The host believes this is a company-specific issue related to poor margins, not a negative sign for the broader semiconductor or AI server market (like NVIDIA or AMD).

Zeta Global (ZETA)

  • Zeta "crushed" its earnings, causing the stock to surge 15-28%.
  • It's a small-cap ($4.8B) marketing analytics company that is growing revenue at 35%, buying back stock, and holds a significant amount of cash.
  • Takeaway: The host found the company "very exciting" and "worth looking into." Its high short float (15%) suggests a short squeeze was also in play, adding to the stock's volatility. This could be an interesting small-cap growth play for investors to research.

Disney (DIS)

  • The stock was down 2-4% after earnings.
  • While they beat EPS estimates, they had a slight miss on revenue.
  • Takeaway: The host expressed a bearish/uninspired view on Disney, questioning its long-term content strategy and its ability to compete with Netflix and YouTube. The host does not see a clear path for significant shareholder value creation.

Grab (GRAB)

  • The host is very bullish on Grab for the long term, viewing it as a "monopoly in the region" (Southeast Asia).
  • The investment thesis is that Grab is sacrificing short-term profits for long-term market dominance, with future growth to be driven by high-margin financial services and advertising.
  • Takeaway: The host believes the stock is currently undervalued and potentially being held down by institutional funds. This is presented as a high-conviction, long-term holding that requires patience.

Arista Networks (ANET) & Astera Labs (ALAB)

  • Both companies, which are crucial to the data center and AI infrastructure ecosystem, "crushed" their earnings.
  • Arista (ANET) was up 15-17%.
  • Astera Labs (ALAB) was up 26-33%.
  • Takeaway: The strong performance of these "picks and shovels" AI plays is a very positive sign for the entire AI sector, confirming that the massive build-out of data centers is real and benefiting a wide range of companies beyond just NVIDIA and AMD.

Macro-Economic Insights

  • Federal Reserve & Interest Rates:
    • Fed President Kashkari signaled that two rate cuts are possible by the end of the year.
    • The market is pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
    • Insight: The host stated that rate cuts are a "massive tailwind for all equities" because they make safer investments like savings accounts less attractive, pushing money into the stock market.
  • Tariffs & Geopolitics:
    • President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchase of Russian oil.
    • Insight: This introduces geopolitical uncertainty. While the market initially reacted negatively, it seemed to digest the news. The host believes this is a negotiating tactic and a deal will likely be reached between the U.S. and India. Investors should monitor this as it could impact companies with significant operations or sales in India.
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Video Description
amit: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - Intro 06:31 - Kashkari Speaks 11:00 - Earnings 30:20 - UBER CEO 32:33 - Lisa Su live 44:00 - Market Open 1:48:58 - Jose Joins 1:58:50 - Palantir to 180
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!