TRUMP AND IRAN MAY HAVE A DEAL, ZOOM, WEBULL, TTWO, WORKDAY, DECKERS EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
TRUMP AND IRAN MAY HAVE A DEAL, ZOOM, WEBULL, TTWO, WORKDAY, DECKERS EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
23 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should maintain long-term positions in NVIDIA (NVDA) to capture a year-end price target of $250, while active traders can generate income by selling covered calls during the current sideways "air pocket." The Quantum Computing sector, specifically D-Wave (QBTS) and Rigetti (RGTI), has gained institutional legitimacy through $100 million in U.S. government funding, making these high-momentum names dangerous to short. For a long-term catalyst, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) offers a significant entry point ahead of the GTA 6 launch in late 2026, which is expected to drive monetization for over a decade. In the software space, prioritize "system of record" companies like Workday (WDY) and Zoom (ZM) that demonstrate clear AI monetization, while avoiding disruptible SaaS firms like Intuit (INTU). Finally, look for "backdoor" AI opportunities in energy infrastructure through Enphase (ENPH) and Bloom Energy (BE), as data center power demands continue to surge.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Despite a "monster earnings print" with revenue up 85% and a 2,500% dividend increase, the stock struggled to maintain momentum, trading red even as the S&P 500 flipped green. • Sentiment: The market appears to be in an "air pocket" where growth investors are rotating out due to the law of large numbers (slowing percentage growth), while value investors aren't buying yet because the P/E ratio isn't low enough for them. • Buybacks: The company announced a significant buyback authorization, which analysts view as a confidence booster and a way to manufacture EPS growth as top-line growth naturally decelerates.

Takeaways

Price Target: Analyst Chris Patel maintains a year-end target of $250, representing roughly 15% upside from current levels. • Investment Strategy: For long-term holders, the recommendation is to hold through the "air pocket." For active traders, playing the "IV crush" (selling out-of-the-money covered calls before earnings) was highlighted as a way to generate returns in a sideways market. • Risk: The "Nvidia Tax" is driving hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) to develop their own internal chips, which could lead to TAM (Total Addressable Market) saturation.


Quantum Computing Sector (D-Wave, IONQ, Rigetti)

• The sector saw massive gains (20%–30%+) following news that the U.S. government invested approximately $100 million into several names in the space. • D-Wave (QBTS) was up 30%; Rigetti (RGTI) was up 27%; IONQ was up 10%. • IBM also received a billion-dollar government investment, rising 12%.

Takeaways

Institutional Legitimacy: The U.S. government's financial support is seen as a "legitimizing" event for the industry. • Shorting Risk: Analysts warned against shorting these names despite the rapid run-up, as "fighting the government" and the current pro-quantum administration is high-risk.


Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

• The stock rose nearly 7% after hours despite a "soft" revenue guide that was $1 billion below street expectations. • Catalyst: The company confirmed the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) for November 2026 (Fiscal Year 2027).

Takeaways

Long-term Value: While the initial launch will be a massive revenue spike, the real value lies in the "long tail" of monetization (microtransactions) that could last 10–15 years. • Sentiment: The market is willing to overlook current weak guidance in favor of the massive 2027 catalyst.


SaaS & Cloud Software (Workday, Zoom, Intuit)

Workday (WDY): Up 11% after hours following a double beat on EPS and Revenue. Management noted that AI adoption is accelerating with 4,000 customers using AI agents. • Zoom (ZM): Up 7% after hours. While revenue growth is modest (5%), its AI Companion product saw 184% growth in paid users. • Intuit (INTU): Down 20% following earnings, dragging down sentiment for other SaaS names earlier in the day.

Takeaways

Sector Divergence: The market is beginning to separate "disruptible" SaaS (like Adobe or Intuit's TurboTax) from "system of record" SaaS (like ServiceNow or Salesforce) which may have deeper moats. • Workday vs. Intuit: Workday's positive reaction despite Intuit's crash suggests the market is rewarding companies that show clear AI monetization paths.


Energy & Data Center Plays (Enphase, Bloom Energy)

Enphase (ENPH): Caught a bid following a Goldman Sachs report labeling it a "data center play for energy." • Bloom Energy (BE): Mentioned as a beneficiary of the data center energy constraint theme. • Nebius (NBIS): Up 14%–15% following a partnership with Bloom Energy and news of a 30% price increase for its services.

Takeaways

Theme: Investors are looking for "backdoor" AI plays. Companies providing the energy infrastructure for data centers are currently high-momentum opportunities.


Consumer & Retail (Deckers, Ross Stores)

Deckers (DECK): Up 5% after hours on a double beat. Momentum continues to be driven by the HOKA and UGG brands. Announced $5 billion in share buybacks. • Ross Stores (ROST): Up 7% after hours following a "triple beat" (Revenue, EPS, and raised Guidance).

Takeaways

Resilience: Despite concerns about the consumer, high-performance brands (HOKA) and off-price retail (Ross) continue to outperform broader retail trends.


Macro Themes: Iran Deal & Oil

• Reports of a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire mediated by Pakistan caused the S&P 500 to flip green and Oil to drop back below $100. • Risk Factor: Sticking points remain regarding uranium enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Takeaways

Market Impact: A confirmed deal would be highly deflationary (lowering oil prices), which would provide the Federal Reserve the "credibility" needed to cut interest rates. • Investment Idea: TPG (TPG) was mentioned as a private equity play that yields ~6% and would benefit significantly from the lower interest rate environment that a peace deal might facilitate.

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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!