TREASURY YIELDS REBOUNDING HIGHER, BITCOIN BACK ABOVE 70K, STOCKS DOWN | MARKET OPEN
TREASURY YIELDS REBOUNDING HIGHER, BITCOIN BACK ABOVE 70K, STOCKS DOWN | MARKET OPEN
19 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should consider building positions in Bitcoin (BTC) and high-beta proxies like Coinbase Global (COIN) ahead of the pivotal September 15th Senate vote on the Clarity Act and anticipated fourth-quarter market strength.

The pullback in Micron Technology (MU) to the $930–$955 range presents an attractive entry point to capture long-term AI computing demand following the company's new $10 billion research facility commitment.

Uber Technologies (UBER) offers a compelling value buy near $79–$80, as robust multi-billion-dollar free cash flow and major institutional backing outweigh overblown near-term Robotaxi competition fears.

Turnaround-focused investors can look at Super Micro Computer (SMCI) around $38.43, where an independent investigation clearing senior management has removed a major regulatory overhang on the stock.

Finally, investors should prepare liquidity to gain direct exposure to frontier artificial intelligence, with Anthropic targeting an IPO debut as early as September or October.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin broke out above $70,000, reaching intraday highs around $72,400, driven by rising ETF inflows and policy optimism.
    • A major regulatory catalyst is approaching with a scheduled full Senate floor vote on the Clarity Act set for September 15th.
    • The Trump administration hosted a meeting with major crypto industry executives, reaffirming support for domestic digital asset innovation.
    • The cryptocurrency is acting as an alternative store of value and hedge against expanding national debt (now past $40 trillion) and persistent fiscal liquidity injections.

Takeaways

  • Crypto momentum is turning bullish following months of consolidation, with key catalysts including the mid-September regulatory vote and the historical post-halving cycle strength heading into Q4.
  • A potential surprise interest rate hike remains a primary downside risk factor for crypto and risk assets.

Coinbase Global (COIN)

  • Coinbase shares surged 5% to 9% following industry-wide crypto momentum and political developments.
    • CEO Brian Armstrong noted that spot Bitcoin trading now accounts for only about 12% of total revenue due to diversification into derivatives, stablecoins, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets.
    • The company is launching tokenized equities for non-U.S. clients next week from Abu Dhabi, while working with regulators on domestic frameworks.

Takeaways

  • COIN offers high-beta exposure to a crypto market recovery, backed by a significantly more diversified revenue model than in previous market cycles.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Robinhood spiked to $100 in pre-market trading before retreating toward $95 alongside general fintech weakness.
    • Analyst Tom Lee unexpectedly recommended avoiding HOOD for the remainder of 2026 (favoring JPMorgan and Arista Networks), despite previously calling Robinhood a potential future mega-cap winner.
    • The platform is benefiting from trading volume surges across crypto, event prediction markets, and retail equities.

Takeaways

  • While growth fundamentals and crypto volume remain strong, mixed analyst sentiment and broader fintech headwinds may create near-term volatility around the $95–$100 price level.

Hyperliquid Strategies / PER (PER)

  • PER, a treasury holding company focused on the Hyperliquid decentralized perpetuals ecosystem, rallied sharply (up 30% in a single session).
    • President Trump mentioned efforts to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S. in a fully compliant framework within coming weeks.
    • Institutional investor Stanley Druckenmiller disclosed a stake in PER via recent regulatory 13F filings.

Takeaways

  • High-beta crypto treasury plays like PER are seeing speculative momentum as institutional capital and regulatory tailwinds align around decentralized derivatives.

Walmart (WMT)

  • Walmart dropped 7% to 9%, marking its largest single-day percentage decline since July 2022.
    • U.S. comparable sales growth came in at 2.6%, missing street expectations of 3.4% and representing the slowest growth rate in over six years.
    • Management noted consumer pressure from higher fuel prices (>$4/gallon) and smaller basket sizes, alongside pharmacy headwinds tied to GLP-1 pricing and legislation.

Takeaways

  • Slower top-line growth at WMT signals that lower- and middle-income consumers are increasingly stretched by persistent inflation and high energy prices.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Micron traded between $930 and $955, experiencing a sharp intraday rebound following an announcement by CEO Sanjay Mehrotra.
    • The company announced a $10 billion investment over the next decade to build the Micron Research Lab in Idaho, focused on next-generation memory, advanced packaging, and AI computing architecture.
    • Management reiterated that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM are strategic AI infrastructure components rather than standard commodities.

Takeaways

  • The pullback in semiconductor names offers potential entry points as long-term AI infrastructure CapEx commitments remain strong, though near-term price action remains tied to broader macro and oil price trends.

SpaceX

  • Shares fell 3% to 4% toward $130–$133 due to heavy liquidity pressure.
    • A major share unlock event occurred with 319 million shares becoming eligible for trading, leading to employee and insider profit-taking.
    • SpaceX's price action continues to heavily influence peer space stocks, including Rocket Lab (RKLB).

Takeaways

  • Expect temporary downward pressure on private and secondary space-market valuations as the market absorbs substantial supply from the share unlock.

Nebius Group (NBIS)

  • Nebius shares dropped to the $212–$218 range following financing news.
    • The company upsized its convertible senior notes offering from $4.5 billion to $5 billion due to strong institutional demand.
    • Capital is earmarked for scaling GPU infrastructure and data centers to expand Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

Takeaways

  • High-growth neo-cloud operators require ongoing capital dilution to finance expensive compute hardware; investor returns depend on ARR expansion outpacing share dilution before notes convert.

Uber Technologies (UBER)

  • Uber traded around $79–$80, with prominent investors including Bill Ackman, David Tepper, and Brad Gerstner holding or initiating positions.
    • Sentiment has been held back by market fears over future autonomous Robotaxi competition.
    • Fundamentals remain robust, with multi-billion-dollar free cash flow generation and diversified revenue beyond core passenger mobility.

Takeaways

  • UBER is viewed as fundamentally undervalued relative to its free cash flow, with Robotaxi disruption risks appearing overstated in the medium term.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

  • SMCI gained roughly 5%, trading up to $38.43.
    • An independent special committee investigation into a March indictment of two former employees concluded that current senior management had no knowledge of, or involvement in, the alleged product diversion scheme.

Takeaways

  • The completion and findings of the independent review remove a significant regulatory overhang that had depressed the stock's valuation multiple.

OpenAI & Anthropic (Pre-IPO)

  • Details emerged regarding upcoming public market listings for leading frontier AI labs:
    • Anthropic is targeting an initial public offering as early as September or October.
    • OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer indicated a targeted public debut in 2027 or sooner, reporting quarter-to-date revenue run rates up 35% and enterprise revenue up 50%.

Takeaways

  • AI market attention will increasingly focus on the impending Anthropic IPO, which will serve as the primary public benchmark for enterprise AI model adoption and unit economics.

U.S. Treasuries & Macro (US10Y / OIL)

  • The 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated around 4.70%, with the 30-year yield near 5.33%, creating valuation headwinds for broader equity markets.
    • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Treasury buybacks targeting illiquid long-end bonds could exceed the initially planned $4 billion pace.
    • Crude oil spiked to the $87–$89/barrel range on escalating geopolitical tension, keeping headline inflation risks and bond yields elevated.
    • The administration announced a transition from direct kinetic action toward coordinated global economic sanctions to pressure Iran.

Takeaways

  • Elevated bond yields and rising energy prices will continue to cap broad market expansion until geopolitical tensions ease or Treasury liquidity operations successfully pull long-term borrowing costs down.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!