THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER CLOSES | MARKET CLOSE
THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER CLOSES | MARKET CLOSE
231 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 14 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Robinhood (HOOD) and AppLovin (APP) may see continued buying pressure as they are officially added to the S&P 500 index on Monday. With strong momentum, SoFi (SOFI) is expected to break through the key $30 resistance level, with some analysts targeting $40 or more by the end of the year. Many are bullish on NVIDIA (NVDA), anticipating a breakout above $200 per share driven by massive growth in the AI sector. There is also high conviction that Ethereum (ETH) could rally towards a $6,000 to $7,000 price target. For stock market exposure to this theme, consider BitMine (BTM), which holds a significant amount of Ethereum.

Detailed Analysis

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock price was very active, hitting $125 during the podcast. It closed around $124.70.
  • The upward price movement was largely attributed to its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 index, which is scheduled for Monday, September 22nd.
  • The host noted that index funds that track the S&P 500 likely started buying shares on Friday in anticipation of the official rebalancing on Monday, causing the price surge.
  • A comparison was made to Palantir's S&P 500 inclusion, where the stock saw a massive surge on the Friday before it was officially added. The host expects a similar pattern for Robinhood, with potential for more upward movement in after-hours trading and on Monday.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The discussion around Robinhood was overwhelmingly positive, driven by the major catalyst of its S&P 500 inclusion.
  • Short-Term Catalyst: The inclusion in the S&P 500 forces large index funds to buy the stock, creating significant buying pressure. This could lead to continued price appreciation in the short term.
  • Potential for Volatility: While the sentiment is bullish, investors should be aware that such events can cause short-term volatility. The price may fluctuate as funds complete their purchases.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The stock had a strong day, breaking out to $29.63 and closing around $29.40 - $29.50. This was noted as the first $29 close in the company's history.
  • The host described the stock as having a "date with Destiny, and Destiny's name might as well be $30," indicating a strong belief that it will soon cross this key psychological level.
  • One of the speakers, Steve, mentioned he sold covered calls with a $30 strike price, which he now seems to regret as the stock moves closer to that level.
  • Price Target Discussion:
    • Steve suggested a price of $35 or $40 by the end of the year would be a "bearish" estimate, implying he thinks it could go even higher.
    • A poll in the chat showed that a majority of viewers believe the stock could reach $40 or even $50+ by the end of the year.
  • Future Catalyst: The speakers mentioned that SoFi will likely be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 next year, which could be another major positive event for the stock.

Takeaways

  • Very Bullish Sentiment: The sentiment for SoFi is extremely positive, with speakers and the community anticipating significant further upside.
  • Key Level to Watch: $30 is a major psychological resistance level. A strong break above this price could lead to another significant rally.
  • Long-Term Potential: Beyond the short-term momentum, potential S&P 500 inclusion next year provides a longer-term bullish catalyst for investors to consider.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock was trading around $182 - $183, a level it hasn't seen for about three weeks.
  • The host mentioned he recently bought 100 shares at $169.19, the same price he bought at after the last earnings report, seeing it as a good entry point.
  • Valuation vs. Growth:
    • A key point of debate was the stock's high valuation, trading at roughly 90 times sales.
    • One speaker (Steve) stated the valuation "makes zero sense" to him and he would not buy at current prices, even though he thinks it's a great company.
    • However, this was countered by the company's immense growth. They are expected to report nearly 50% revenue growth next quarter. The argument is that if they continue this growth, the stock price may not come down.
  • A short report from Citron Research, which initiated a short position around $184, was mentioned. The host noted that if Citron didn't cover their short when the stock dropped to $142, they are now likely at a breakeven or negative position.

Takeaways

  • Mixed but Leaning Bullish: While the high valuation is a concern, the overwhelming growth prospects are driving a bullish narrative. The stock is a "hold" for the more cautious speaker, while the host is actively buying on dips.
  • Growth is Key: Palantir's stock performance is heavily tied to its ability to maintain high growth rates. The upcoming earnings report will be critical to see if they can deliver on the expected ~50% growth.
  • Valuation Risk: Investors should be aware that the stock trades at a very high premium. Any slowdown in growth could lead to a significant price correction.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was trading at $176, near its all-time highs.
  • One speaker (Steve) is very bullish, stating he believes NVIDIA will break out over $200. He considers the stock "inexpensive" relative to its massive forward growth expectations.
  • New Investment: It was announced that NVIDIA signed a letter of intent for a possible $500 million investment in a UK-based self-driving startup called Wave. This shows NVIDIA's strategy of investing in companies that will, in turn, become major customers for its chips.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The outlook for NVIDIA is very positive. It's seen as a core holding that will continue to benefit from the AI boom.
  • Potential Breakout: A move above the $200 level is seen as a real possibility, driven by continued strong demand for its AI chips.
  • Ecosystem Strategy: NVIDIA's investment in Wave highlights its strategy of funding the AI ecosystem to create future demand for its own products, a powerful long-term growth driver.

Oklo (OKLO)

  • The stock experienced a massive rally, up 30% on the day to $135.
  • The host expressed caution, calling the move "frothy" and noting the company has a $19.9 billion valuation with no revenue and no earnings.
  • The rally is part of a broader theme of excitement around nuclear energy and the high demand for power, especially driven by AI data centers.
  • A massive options trade was mentioned: someone bought $15 million worth of November $125 calls, indicating a large bet on the stock going even higher.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk, High-Reward: Oklo is a speculative play on the future of nuclear energy. While it has massive upside potential if it succeeds, it carries significant risk due to its lack of revenue and fundamentals.
  • Momentum Play: The current price action is driven by market sentiment and momentum, not traditional valuation metrics. Investors should be prepared for extreme volatility.
  • Energy Theme: Oklo is a pure-play on the theme of increasing energy demand. Its performance is tied to the market's belief in the necessity of nuclear power for the future.

BitMine (BTM) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • BitMine (BTM) is discussed as a way to get exposure to Ethereum (ETH). The stock closed around $60.77.
  • An interesting divergence was noted: BitMine was up 2% while its primary holding, Ethereum, was down 2%. This indicates that the market is placing a growing premium on BitMine's stock price relative to the value of the Ethereum it holds (its Net Asset Value, or NAV).
  • Major Purchase: It was confirmed that BitMine purchased $69 million worth of Ethereum, bringing their total holdings to $8.66 billion. This shows aggressive accumulation.
  • Risk Factor: The primary risk was clearly stated: "If ETH tanks, then BitMine's screwed." The stock's value is directly tied to the price of Ethereum.
  • One speaker (Steve) is very bullish on the theme. He sold his Tesla position to invest more into Ethereum and is also buying more BitMine stock.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Ethereum: The discussion reflects a strong bullish conviction on Ethereum for the remainder of the year, with one speaker targeting a price of $6,000 to $7,000.
  • BitMine as a Leveraged Play: BitMine is seen as a potentially higher-reward (and higher-risk) way to invest in Ethereum. You are paying a premium for the stock, but it has shown it can outperform Ethereum's price movements on certain days.
  • Understand the Premium: Investors in BitMine should be aware they are paying more for the stock than the underlying value of its Ethereum holdings. This premium can expand or contract, adding another layer of volatility.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Google (GOOGL): Hit a new all-time high of $256. The sentiment is very bullish, with the narrative that "search is dead" now considered definitively over.
  • Apple (AAPL): Made a big move up to $245. The rally was attributed to excitement for the upcoming iPhone 17. Also mentioned were comments from CEO Tim Cook expressing support for Intel (INTC), hinting at a potential future partnership.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): The stock jumped almost 2% to $517 on the news that the company is raising prices on its Xbox consoles up to $650. This was seen as a bullish sign for its pricing power.
  • Oracle (ORCL): The stock was moving after hours on a Bloomberg report that Oracle is in talks with Meta (META) for a $20 billion AI cloud computing deal. This adds to Oracle's momentum in closing large AI-related deals.
  • AppLovin (APP): The stock went "vertical" towards $650. Like Robinhood, it is being added to the S&P 500 on Monday, which was the primary driver of the rally.
  • H-1B Visa Policy Change: The Trump administration announced plans to raise the fee for sponsoring an H-1B foreign worker visa to $100,000 per year. This could significantly increase costs for tech companies and others that rely on foreign talent, potentially impacting their hiring practices and margins.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!