THIRD WEEK OF DECEMBER BEGINS | MARKET OPEN
THIRD WEEK OF DECEMBER BEGINS | MARKET OPEN
145 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Tesla (TSLA) is showing strong momentum driven by its robo-taxi progress, with the market reacting positively to any advancements in its AI capabilities. Despite its large gains, some analysts believe NVIDIA (NVDA) is still undervalued and poised to move higher, making it a core holding for AI exposure. A market rotation into Financials is underway, with major banks like JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) being viewed as undervalued technology-hybrid investments. For long-term investors, Ethereum (ETH) is gaining significant institutional validation from firms like JP Morgan, creating a strong bullish case despite short-term price volatility. Be cautious with the broader AI Infrastructure theme, as stocks like Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle (ORCL) are experiencing significant pullbacks due to valuation concerns and market exhaustion.

Detailed Analysis

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The stock saw a significant pre-market and opening rally, hitting a 52-week high and touching prices of $475, $480, and even $481. The all-time high was noted as $488.54.
  • The primary catalyst for the move was reported to be videos of unsupervised robo-taxis operating on the streets of Austin, Texas over the weekend.
  • The speaker noted this is the market starting to price in "physical embodied AI that can generate revenue immediately."
  • Wedbush was mentioned as having reiterated their buy rating on Tesla.
  • Tesla was one of the few major tech stocks (Mag 7) that remained strongly green during a market session where many others sold off, suggesting it was a leader for the day.
  • The speaker mused if 2026 could be "Elon's year" with the progress on Tesla's robo-taxi and the potential SpaceX IPO.

Takeaways

  • The market is highly sensitive to any news demonstrating progress in Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) and RoboTaxi ambitions. These developments are seen as a key catalyst for future growth, potentially more so than vehicle sales in the short term.
  • Positive developments in the robo-taxi space can cause sharp, sudden price increases, as seen with the move toward its all-time high.
  • The stock is showing relative strength, holding up while other major tech stocks are selling off. This could indicate a rotation of funds into Tesla based on its specific AI narrative. Investors should watch for further news on the robo-taxi front as a primary driver of stock performance.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was up in the pre-market on news of launching the Nemotron 3 family of open models, designed for AI agent applications.
  • Analyst Tom Lee was quoted as being bullish, stating that NVIDIA shouldn't be trading at 27 times earnings and is poised to "re-rate higher," comparing its predictability to companies like Walmart and Costco that have higher multiples.
  • Bernstein reiterated an "outperform" rating, noting that NVIDIA's management believes they are about two years ahead of Google's TPU program.
  • Like Tesla, NVIDIA showed significant relative strength, holding its gains while many other tech and AI-related stocks sold off during the trading session.
  • The speaker noted that even with the market showing signs of "AI trade exhaustion," NVIDIA's valuation is not seen as a primary concern compared to other high-beta names.

Takeaways

  • Despite its massive run-up, some analysts believe NVIDIA is still undervalued based on its earnings and dominant position in the AI space.
  • Continuous product innovation, like the new Nemotron 3 models, reinforces its competitive moat and provides ongoing catalysts for the stock.
  • NVIDIA's ability to stay green during a broad tech sell-off indicates strong investor conviction. It is seen as a core holding in the AI theme, less susceptible to the volatility hitting more speculative data center plays.

Data Center & AI Infrastructure Theme (ORCL, AVGO, APLD, IREN)

  • There is significant nervousness and "exhaustion" in the market around the AI infrastructure trade.
  • Oracle (ORCL) was down significantly (over 4%), continuing a slide from the previous week. This was attributed to a market freak-out over a rumored OpenAI data center delay, even though Oracle's management refuted the news. The widening yield on Oracle's bonds was also noted as a concern.
  • Broadcom (AVGO) was down over 4%, continuing a massive sell-off of over 20% since its earnings report. This was attributed to its high valuation and a new report suggesting its customer, Google, may use MediaTek for its next-generation TPU chips.
  • Other data center and related stocks like Applied Digital (APLD), IREN, and CoreWeave were also down significantly, caught in the broader downdraft.
  • The speaker believes the fear is overblown, pointing to a Google deal to buy power for a data center in Malaysia as evidence that overall demand for data centers remains very high.

Takeaways

  • The market is currently in a "sell the news" mode for many AI infrastructure stocks, punishing them for any hint of a slowdown or increased competition.
  • Valuation is becoming a key concern. Stocks that have had huge run-ups, like Broadcom, are vulnerable to sharp corrections if their growth story shows any cracks.
  • This theme is experiencing high volatility. Investors should be aware that negative headlines, even if refuted, can cause significant short-term pain across the entire sector. This could present a buying opportunity for those with a long-term bullish view on data center demand, or it could be a warning sign of a broader market rotation.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The sentiment is long-term bullish, driven by institutional adoption.
  • JP Morgan is launching its first tokenized money fund on the Ethereum blockchain, seeding it with $100 million of its own capital. This is seen as a massive validation of the bullish thesis for Ethereum.
  • Prominent investor Tom Lee and his firm BMNR were mentioned as having bought a significant amount of ETH, now owning 3.2% of the entire supply.
  • The price was noted around $3,140 early on but later dipped below $3,000 during the market sell-off.

Takeaways

  • The key investment thesis for Ethereum is its emergence as the foundational layer for traditional financial institutions moving onto the blockchain ("TradFi").
  • Actions by major players like JP Morgan are powerful long-term catalysts that may not be immediately reflected in the price but build the case for future value.
  • Despite the strong long-term narrative, ETH's price remains volatile and correlated with the broader crypto and macro markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The price showed significant weakness during the session, starting near $90,000 and falling below $87,000.
  • Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to be a major buyer, purchasing an additional 10,645 Bitcoin at an average price of $92,000.
  • There is a debate around the "four-year cycle" theory. Tom Lee was cited as saying Bitcoin needs to get back above $130,000 by January to invalidate the bearish implications of this cycle.

Takeaways

  • While large, committed buyers like Michael Saylor continue to accumulate, the price action is currently bearish, indicating broader selling pressure.
  • Investors should be aware of the "four-year cycle" narrative, which suggests Bitcoin could see a significant downturn if it follows historical patterns. The price action in the coming weeks is seen as critical in confirming or denying this thesis.
  • The short-term price is highly volatile and sensitive to overall market risk sentiment.

SpaceX (Private) & Space-Related Stocks (RKLB, ASTS)

  • SpaceX is reportedly planning to IPO in 2026 with a rumored valuation of $800 billion.
  • This news is acting as a major catalyst for publicly traded space companies, which are seen as "proxy plays."
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) rallied sharply on the news, up over 4% at the open, but then sold off with the broader market, falling over 7%. The speaker emphasized that the rally was catalyst-driven, not based on fundamentals.
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) was also mentioned as a related space play.

Takeaways

  • The upcoming SpaceX IPO is creating significant speculative interest in the entire space sector.
  • Stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) offer a way for public investors to gain exposure to this theme, but their price action is currently tied more to the SpaceX hype than their own business performance, leading to extreme volatility.
  • This is a high-risk, high-reward theme. The success and valuation of the SpaceX IPO will likely have a major impact on the entire sector.

Financials & Banks (JPM, GS, WFC)

  • The sentiment is bullish, with financials being a key area of a market "rotation."
  • Analyst Tom Lee was quoted as saying large banks like JP Morgan (JPM) are "criminally undervalued" and should be re-rated as technology companies due to their heavy investment in AI.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) was noted as hitting an all-time high of $900, and JP Morgan was also near its all-time high.
  • This sector showed strength while the broader tech market was weak, indicating money was flowing from tech into financials.

Takeaways

  • There is an emerging investment thesis that large, tech-forward banks are undervalued and represent a growth opportunity.
  • Investors are rotating into financials as a play on a strong economy and as an alternative to the "exhausted" AI trade in tech.
  • Even at all-time highs, some analysts believe these stocks have room to run if they are successfully re-categorized by the market as tech-hybrid companies.

Broad Market & S&P 500

  • The market is showing signs of "exhaustion" with the AI trade that has driven gains for most of the year.
  • There is a clear rotation happening, with money flowing out of many big tech and AI names and into other sectors like financials, healthcare, and previously lagging small caps.
  • Wall Street analyst targets for the S&P 500 in 2026 are mostly bullish, ranging from 7,100 (Bank of America, the most bearish) to 7,700 (Citigroup) and 8,500 (Wealth Consulting Group). The bullish case is based on Fed rate cuts and continued earnings growth.
  • The "Santa Claus Rally," which historically happens in the last two weeks of December, is in question due to the market's tired sentiment and lack of new catalysts.

Takeaways

  • Expect increased volatility and sector rotation as the year ends. The market leaders of the past year are facing profit-taking and investor fatigue.
  • While the consensus outlook for 2026 is positive, the path to get there is expected to be choppy. The market's intense negative reaction to minor negative news (like the Oracle headline) suggests a fragile sentiment.
  • Investors should watch if the rotation into sectors like financials and healthcare has staying power or if money flows back into big tech on any significant dip.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ nyc feb meetup: https://shorturl.at/wk0pN 00:00 - Intro 06:01 - Tom Lee Speaks 44:00 - Market Close 1:24:00 - Macro Data 1:47:00 - Fed Talk
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!