THE BIG GUYS ARE BUYING TECH, TRUMP WANTS A DEAL, VIX AT NEW LOWS | MARKET OPEN
THE BIG GUYS ARE BUYING TECH, TRUMP WANTS A DEAL, VIX AT NEW LOWS | MARKET OPEN
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors can target upside in Uber Technologies (UBER) toward an estimated fair value of $108 to $120 by accumulating shares around $76 or selling cash-secured puts in the $50–$60 range for income.

Capitalize on the expanding AI power infrastructure boom by taking positions in high-demand utilities like Vistra (VST) and American Electric Power (AEP), which serve as essential power suppliers to expanding data centers.

Intel (INTC) presents an attractive value turnaround between $95 and $105, supported by a clear price floor established by a recent $12 million insider purchase from its CEO.

In the semiconductor space, Micron Technology (MU) remains a top long-term pick poised for multi-year outperformance through FY2030, supported by resilient demand and favorable U.S. trade policies.

Investors seeking high-probability options income on tech pullbacks can sell puts on Meta Platforms (META) around the $520–$530 strike or on AppLovin (APP) in the $200–$250 range to build positions with a wider margin of safety.

Detailed Analysis

Uber Technologies (UBER)

  • UBER is trading around $76 (after dipping to $65 post-earnings), with an estimated fair value between $108 and $120 based on a 17x to 22x multiple on consensus $13 billion 2027 free cash flow.
  • Prominent institutional investors expanded positions in Q2: Bill Ackman increased his stake by 14%, David Tepper added 21%, and Terry Smith purchased 8 million shares.
  • The primary overhang is market fear that autonomous vehicles (Tesla Robotaxi, Waymo) will disrupt ride-hailing.
  • The counter-thesis argues that UBER's network of 200 million monthly active users makes it the critical distribution layer for autonomous fleets and drone deliveries (e.g., Zipline partnership).

Takeaways

  • Consider selling cash-secured puts in the $50–$60 range or using covered calls, as the stock has traded in a tight consolidation range while generating strong free cash flow.

AppLovin (APP)

  • The stock has dropped roughly 50% year-to-date, falling from $800 to $318, and trades at approximately 10x sales and 15x earnings with a $100 billion market cap.
  • APP holds an estimated 70%–80% market share in mobile gaming ad infrastructure, but faces decelerating top-line growth (slowing from ~70% to ~55%, with long-term guidance near 30%).
  • Growth concerns center on difficulty expanding beyond mobile gaming into broader e-commerce advertising.
  • Short-seller allegations have been characterized as unsubstantiated, with no direct competitive pressure seen from platforms like The Trade Desk.

Takeaways

  • The stock is currently a falling knife with high volatility; investors seeking asymmetric upside can look for put-selling opportunities in the $200–$250 zone or wait for technical stabilization above $400.

Micron Technology (MU) & Memory Sector

  • Memory stocks rallied as U.S. Commerce officials urged Apple to avoid sourcing Chinese memory chips (CXMT), protecting pricing power for incumbent suppliers.
  • Institutional activity is mixed: David Tepper trimmed 40% of his position near highs, while Brad Gerstner added 209,000 shares.
  • Bank of America maintained MU as a top pick, citing potential for $250 in EPS by FY2030 driven by durable AI memory demand.
  • Related storage and memory names like SanDisk and Western Digital are experiencing strong post-earnings momentum and cyclical recovery.

Takeaways

  • The structural bear case around memory chip oversupply appears to be priced in, positioning MU and related memory plays for continued outperformance in a broader tech bull market.

SpaceX

  • Emerged as a major winner in Q2 institutional 13F filings, driven by conversions of xAI stakes into SpaceX equity.
  • Major corporate holders include NVIDIA with a $17 billion stake and AMD with a $3.3 billion stake, alongside a $25 billion sovereign position from Saudi Arabia.
  • Growth momentum is supported by expanding token demand for the Grok AI model and associated NeoCloud infrastructure.
  • Institutional options flow showed aggressive long-term bullish positioning, including purchases of $270 strike call options expiring in January 2028.

Takeaways

  • Institutional holding remains strong despite liquidity lock-up risks, making SpaceX a core institutional vehicle for private AI and space infrastructure exposure.

Energy & Power Infrastructure (VST, AEP, DTE)

  • Peter Thiel’s macro fund disclosed a $418 million portfolio with 72% allocated to energy utilities, including Vistra (VST), American Electric Power (AEP), DTE Energy (DTE), and FirstEnergy (FE).
  • Power grid and electricity availability are viewed by institutional macro funds as the primary physical bottlenecks for ongoing data center expansion and AI compute scaling.

Takeaways

  • Regulated utilities and independent power producers like VST offer defensive, predictable growth while capturing direct upside from expanding AI data center energy consumption.

Cerebras

  • The stock surged over 15% following an upgrade by Wedbush highlighting its AI inference capabilities.
  • Cerebras’s ultra-fast processing hardware delivers up to 750 output tokens per second (roughly 14x faster than standard processing tiers) to power OpenAI's advanced model tiers.
  • The company faces a 13% to 17% short interest, creating potential for short-squeeze volatility following its recent earnings pullback.

Takeaways

  • High risk-reward profile driven by rapid AI inference hardware demand, though investors should monitor elevated operating expenditure growth before taking long-term positions.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • GOOGL was the most heavily trimmed Mega-Cap Tech stock by total fund count in Q2, with 26 major funds reducing or fully exiting their stakes (including a full exit by Bill Ackman).
  • Contrasting the broader sell-off, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increased its position by 45%.
  • Valuation has stabilized in the $340–$350 range following the resolution of antitrust and breakup sentiment overhangs from earlier in the year.

Takeaways

  • Berkshire’s aggressive buying offers a contrarian signal that institutional profit-taking may be overextended relative to Alphabet's fundamental earnings power.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Shares faced downward pressure (trading near $570) due to legal escalation, including a multi-state lawsuit co-led by the California Attorney General over platform design and user impact.
  • The legal fight risks resulting in significant financial penalties and sentiment drag, mirroring the extended regulatory pressure Alphabet faced in prior quarters.

Takeaways

  • While long-term fundamentals remain sound, ongoing legal headlines could pressure near-term multiples; selling puts in the $520–$530 range provides a wider margin of safety.

Intel (INTC)

  • INTC is down roughly 50% from its highs, trading in the $95–$105 range.
  • Insider buying activity signaled executive confidence, with the CEO purchasing approximately $12 million in stock (100,000 shares at $95).
  • The stock stands to benefit from domestic semiconductor policy initiatives and long-term CPU architecture demand required alongside GPU scaling.

Takeaways

  • Significant insider buying provides a value floor, making Intel an attractive turnaround trade for patient investors comfortable with foundry execution risks.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Trading around $96, HOOD is seeing its high-margin prediction market vertical outpace equities trading in revenue generation.
  • The primary near-term risk stems from regulatory uncertainty and CFTC scrutiny regarding prediction markets and state-level challenges.
  • Positive catalysts include upcoming White House crypto roundtable discussions regarding the Clarity Act and expanding 24/7 tokenized asset trading.

Takeaways

  • Regulatory rulings on prediction markets remain the critical catalyst; positive clarity could unlock substantial multi-year revenue growth given the platform's user engagement.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!