TESLA ROBOTAXIS ARE LIVE, HIMS DOWN 15%, DOES THE MARKET CARE ABOUT WAR? | MARKET OPEN
TESLA ROBOTAXIS ARE LIVE, HIMS DOWN 15%, DOES THE MARKET CARE ABOUT WAR? | MARKET OPEN
320 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 6 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

For a high-conviction play, consider Grab (GRAB), which is viewed as undervalued with a potential buy target near $4.20. Investors interested in the volatile Hims & Hers (HIMS) could consider selling puts to generate income, such as a one-month $40 strike put for a potential 5.8% return on collateral. Consider Google (GOOG) as a potentially undervalued large-cap tech stock, currently trading down significantly from its highs. Speculative traders might watch JetBlue (JBLU), as its high 20% short interest makes it a potential short-squeeze candidate. In cryptocurrency, a small position in Bitcoin (BTC) was initiated around $101,300, capitalizing on recent price dips.

Detailed Analysis

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

  • The stock was down approximately 30% during the podcast due to major negative news.
  • Novo Nordisk terminated its partnership with HIMSS. The official reason cited was concerns about HIMSS's "illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing."
  • The podcast host mentioned that this could lead to lawsuits from Novo Nordisk, which would be a major headwind for the company.
  • Bearish sentiment was also highlighted by a Bank of America note, which reiterated a sell rating with a $28 price target. BofA is concerned that core revenue growth is decelerating and will fall to the mid-teens by the second half of 2025.
  • A key bear argument is that HIMSS is just a marketing company with no real "moat," as it spends about half of its revenue on marketing.
  • The host, who owns the stock, noted that this is a "bad headline" but is not necessarily "thesis-breaking." He believes the long-term "Netflix of healthcare" story is intact.

Takeaways

  • High Risk, High Volatility: This event highlights the significant headline risk associated with individual growth stocks. The stock dropped over 30% in a single morning on the news of a partnership termination.
  • Potential Entry Point for Bulls: For investors with high conviction in HIMSS's long-term story, a 30% drop could be seen as a buying opportunity. The host notes that if you are "super bullish," you have to consider buying a dip of this magnitude.
  • Options Strategy: For those interested but hesitant to buy shares directly, the host suggests selling puts. Due to the high volatility, the premiums on options are elevated. For example, selling a put with a $40 strike price for a month out could yield a 5.8% return on collateral. This allows an investor to get paid to wait for a lower entry price.
  • Watch for Company Response: HIMSS had not yet issued a public response to Novo Nordisk's claims during the podcast. Their official statement will be critical in shaping the narrative and determining if the stock can find a bottom.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The stock was a top performer, up around 10% and trading above $350 during the podcast.
  • The primary driver was the RoboTaxi launch event in Austin, which was viewed as a major success and a glimpse into the future of the company.
  • The RoboTaxi app is live, and influencers were invited to take rides in a geofenced (controlled) area. The rides cost $4.20 each.
  • While the event was overwhelmingly positive, one video did show an instance of "jerky steering," indicating the technology is not yet perfect.
  • The host believes the RoboTaxi hype is strong enough to cushion the stock against what are expected to be poor Q2 earnings results.
  • Analysts at Barclays are more cautious, stating that while the event was a milestone, the "path of scaling will be long," and they caution against "over-optimism."

Takeaways

  • Future-Facing Catalyst: The market is currently pricing Tesla based on the long-term potential of RoboTaxis, not its current car sales or near-term earnings. The first dollar of RoboTaxi revenue is a powerful psychological milestone for investors.
  • Hype vs. Fundamentals: Investors should be aware that the current stock price surge is driven by sentiment and future potential, not immediate financial impact. The RoboTaxi network is not expected to contribute meaningfully to the bottom line for at least a year or two.
  • Short-Term Volatility: Expect continued volatility, especially around the upcoming Q2 earnings and delivery numbers. A strong stock run-up into earnings could lead to a "sell the news" event if the numbers are as weak as anticipated.

Investment Themes & Sectors

  • Geopolitical Impact on Markets: The market showed significant resilience, largely ignoring the escalation between the United States and Iran. The S&P 500 was flat to slightly green. The host's takeaway is that as long as corporate earnings remain strong, the market can withstand geopolitical shocks.
  • Bitcoin & Crypto-Related Equities:
    • Bitcoin (BTC): The host noted buying a small amount around $101,300. There is strong buying pressure from large entities like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and various ETFs, yet the price has seen some selling, possibly due to geopolitical fears.
    • Circle (CRCL): The stock was up over 15%, with the host expressing concern that it's in a "bubble," similar to the market froth of 2021. Its market cap was approaching that of Robinhood.
    • Pro-Cap Financial (CCCM): A new SPAC aiming to become a Bitcoin treasury. The host is bearish, viewing it as a sign of market speculation.
    • Iren (IREN): A Bitcoin miner that financial Twitter ("Fintwit") is reportedly getting excited about as the "next" big momentum stock.
  • Quantum Computing: The sector was down, led by a 16-20% drop in Quantum Computing Inc. (QBT). The drop was caused by a $200 million stock offering (which dilutes existing shareholders) and the resignation of its CEO and CFO. This negative news dragged down other names in the sector like D-Wave (QBTS), Rigetti (RGTI), and IONQ.
  • Airlines (e.g., JetBlue - JBLU): The sector is facing headwinds from rising oil prices, which squeeze their already thin profit margins. The bull case for a name like JetBlue is that it is heavily shorted (20% short interest), making it a potential short-squeeze candidate.

Other Stocks Mentioned

  • Google (GOOG):
    • Context: The stock was down and described as "incredibly disrespected." The weakness is attributed to rumors of Apple (AAPL) potentially acquiring Perplexity to replace Google search and a recent European fine.
    • Takeaway: There's a significant debate around Google. The bear case is that its core pay-per-click ad business is threatened by AI assistants, as users get answers directly without clicking links. The bull case is that it's an undervalued tech giant (down ~12% from highs) that could attract large institutional investors who missed the 2024 rally.
  • Grab (GRAB):
    • Context: The host is very bullish, believing the company is undervalued as it trades at 50% of its cash value. He recently bought more shares at $4.50.
    • Takeaway: The key catalysts for Grab are improving operating margins and the company's strategy for deploying its large cash balance. The host has a personal buy target of $4.20 for his next purchase.
  • Robinhood (HOOD):
    • Context: The company is expanding its services by introducing mortgages through a partnership and is launching a crypto tokenization product in Europe at the end of June.
    • Takeaway: Robinhood continues to innovate and expand its product suite, which could be long-term catalysts for growth. The stock was showing strength, trading near $78-$79.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB):
    • Context: The stock was up over 7% on the day, reportedly due to a price target upgrade. It was attempting to break through the $30-$32 resistance level.
    • Takeaway: For believers in the long-term space economy, Rocket Lab is viewed as a "baby SpaceX." A key milestone to watch for is profitability, which is currently expected by 2026. A surprise profit sooner could be a major catalyst.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI):
    • Context: The stock was down around 6% after announcing a $2 billion convertible note offering.
    • Takeaway: While offerings can cause short-term price drops, the capital raised is likely for expanding operations to meet AI-driven demand, which could be positive in the long run. The key details to watch are the terms of the note.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - HIMS 15:00 - Tesla 21:10 - Kevin Hasset speaks 44:00 - Market Open 1:33:41 - Tom Lee Speaks 2:07:00 - HIMS Update 2:50:00 - Iran update
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!