TESLA REPORTS Q3 2025 EARNINGS | ELON MUSK SPEAKS
TESLA REPORTS Q3 2025 EARNINGS | ELON MUSK SPEAKS
198 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 36 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider accumulating shares of Palantir (PLTR), SoFi (SOFI), and Grab (GRAB) on market weakness for a long-term position. One analyst expressed bullishness on NVIDIA (NVDA) by buying the recent dip at $177.50, as the company remains essential for AI data centers. The investment case for Tesla (TSLA) is now focused on its long-term potential as an AI company through its Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus robot projects. The primary catalyst for Tesla is the successful launch of unsupervised FSD, which is seen as the key to unlocking its future value. Investors should be extremely cautious with highly speculative momentum stocks like Beyond Meat (BYND), as chasing these volatile rallies is very risky.

Detailed Analysis

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla reported its Q3 2025 earnings, which was the main focus of the podcast.

    • EPS Miss: Reported $0.50 per share, missing the expected $0.56. This is down 31% year-over-year.
    • Revenue Beat: Reported $28.1 billion, beating the expected $26.7 billion. This is up 12% year-over-year.
    • Margins & Cash Flow: The company beat expectations on gross margins (18% vs 17.2% expected) and free cash flow ($3.9 billion vs $1.25 billion expected). However, it missed on operating income.
    • Stock Reaction: The stock reaction was relatively muted, trading down about 1-3% after the report. One analyst noted they were "surprised it's not down more."
  • Full Self-Driving (FSD) & RoboTaxi:

    • Elon Musk stated he is "100% confident" that Tesla can solve unsupervised full self-driving at a safety level far greater than a human.
    • He expects to have no safety drivers in RoboTaxis in "large parts of Austin" by the end of the year.
    • Musk believes the "killer app" for FSD is the ability for a driver to safely text in the car, stating "anyone who can buy the car will buy the car" once this is possible.
  • Optimus Robot:

    • Musk described Optimus as having the potential to be the "biggest product of all time" and the key to a future of "sustainable abundance" where work is optional.
    • Timeline: First-generation production lines are being installed, with volume production scheduled to start in 2026.
    • An analyst on the show expressed disappointment, stating Musk did not provide a concrete roadmap for revenue, sales, or backlog, instead focusing on technical details like the "dexterity of the hand."
  • Energy Business:

    • The energy division achieved record deployments and gross profit.
    • Demand for Megapack is very strong, particularly for AI and data center applications to help relieve grid constraints.
  • AI Chips (AI-5):

    • Musk gave a detailed update on Tesla's next-generation AI-5 chip, claiming it could be 40 times better than the current AI-4 chip.
    • He confirmed that both Samsung and TSMC will produce the chip in the U.S. (Texas and Arizona, respectively).
    • Tesla will continue to use NVIDIA (NVDA) hardware for training in its data centers alongside its own custom chips.

Takeaways

  • The investment case for Tesla is shifting away from being just an EV company to an "AI into the real world" company, with its future valuation dependent on the success of FSD, Optimus, and the Energy business.
  • Risk Factor: The end of EV regulatory credits in Q4 2025 is a significant headwind for the automotive business. An analyst warned that Q4 auto sales could be weak without this incentive.
  • Catalyst: The main catalyst to watch for is the official launch of unsupervised FSD. This is seen as the key to unlocking massive demand for vehicles and enabling the RoboTaxi network.
  • The stock's high valuation (described as trading at almost 200 times free cash flow) with negative earnings growth is being supported entirely by the belief in its future projects. The muted stock reaction to a mixed earnings report was seen as a "win" for shareholders.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • One of the podcast hosts mentioned buying the dip in NVIDIA stock at $177.50.
  • Elon Musk confirmed on the Tesla earnings call that Tesla uses NVIDIA hardware for its AI training and is "not about to replace NVIDIA," even as it develops its own custom chips.
  • A startup called StarCloud, which is funded by NVIDIA, is planning to put H100-powered data centers in space.

Takeaways

  • NVIDIA remains a central player in the AI and data center ecosystem, with even competitors like Tesla relying on its hardware for large-scale AI training.
  • The mention of buying the dip indicates a bullish long-term sentiment on the stock from the host.

Momentum & Speculative Stocks

  • The hosts discussed a recent "flush out" of highly speculative momentum stocks, which they believe was a healthy market correction.
  • Beyond Meat (BYND) was used as a prime example of volatility. The stock pumped to $7.50 in the morning and crashed back to $3.50 by the afternoon.
  • Other momentum names mentioned as taking a big hit include Oklo (OKLO) (down 14%) and D-Wave (QBTS) (down 15%).
  • QuantumScape (QS), another speculative battery company with no revenue, saw its stock rise 9% after hours because its quarterly loss was smaller than analysts expected.

Takeaways

  • Investors should be extremely cautious with momentum stocks that have run up quickly without strong underlying fundamentals.
  • Chasing these types of rallies is described as a "cycle of greed" and very risky, as many investors get caught "holding the bag" when the momentum reverses.

Other Stocks & Investment Themes

  • Palantir (PLTR), SoFi (SOFI), Grab (GRAB):

    • One host mentioned buying "nibbles" of these stocks on the market dip, indicating a bullish long-term view and a strategy of accumulating shares on weakness.
    • SoFi was mentioned in a positive light after competitor Lending Club (LC) reported strong earnings, suggesting a healthy environment for fintech lenders.
  • AI & Data Centers (Investment Theme):

    • This was identified as a major growth area. The hosts discussed the massive capital expenditures required for AI.
    • A $15 billion "Stargate" data center project was announced by OpenAI, Oracle, and Vantage Data Centers in Wisconsin.
    • The increasing need for power for these data centers is a significant tailwind for energy providers, including Tesla's Megapack business.
  • IBM (IBM) & LAM Research (LRCX):

    • IBM reported earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines, but the stock fell ~2%. The weakness was attributed to its Red Hat software division missing expectations.
    • LAM Research also beat earnings expectations, and its stock was up slightly after hours.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrencies:

    • Crypto prices were falling after hours, with Bitcoin dropping to the low $107,000s.
    • The decline was attributed to breaking news that the U.S. Treasury was imposing "substantial" new sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing geopolitical risk and causing a flight from riskier assets.
  • Geopolitical Risk:

    • The intraday market dip was largely attributed to a Reuters report that the U.S. was considering restricting exports to China for any goods made with U.S. software. This was later confirmed by the Treasury Secretary.
    • This highlights that ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions remain a significant risk factor for the market.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!