TESLA EARNINGS, TRUMP MAY INVEST IN QUANTUM, CHINA NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE | MARKET OPEN
TESLA EARNINGS, TRUMP MAY INVEST IN QUANTUM, CHINA NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE | MARKET OPEN
198 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 19 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider SoFi (SOFI) ahead of its earnings report, as strong results from competitor Lending Club (LC) and high expectations could lead to a significant price increase. With JP Morgan forecasting Gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by year-end, the precious metal presents a compelling hedge against rising US debt and market risk. Palantir's (PLTR) new $200 million partnership with Lumen (LUMN) strengthens its commercial growth story, making it an attractive buy ahead of its next earnings report. The recent drop in Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock may be a buying opportunity, as the company attributes its revenue miss to supply chain delays rather than a lack of demand. Finally, Robinhood's (HOOD) upcoming high-yield banking feature and continued buying from ARK Invest signal strong potential for user growth and stock appreciation.

Detailed Analysis

Quantum Computing Stocks (IONQ, QBTS, RGTI)

  • A Wall Street Journal report suggested the Trump administration is considering taking equity stakes in quantum computing firms, including IONQ, D-Wave (QBTS), and Rigetti (RGTI).
  • The news caused the stocks to jump in the pre-market: IONQ up 8%, D-Wave up 16%, and Rigetti up 9%.
  • There are conflicting reports, with a commerce representative denying specific conversations, but the market reacted to the rumor.
  • The speaker is skeptical, suggesting the potential investment is very small ($10 million per company), making the headline more impactful than the actual capital.
  • He also points out a potential conflict of interest, as a hedge fund with a $100 million position in IONQ was co-founded by the current Deputy Secretary of Defense.
  • The speaker believes the government's interest, if real, would act as a "backstop" for these stocks, making them very risky to short.

Takeaways

  • The rumor of government investment has introduced a significant narrative-driven catalyst for these stocks, independent of their fundamental performance.
  • This government "backstop" makes shorting these names extremely risky, as a positive announcement could cause a massive price spike.
  • The investment thesis is currently based on hype and government policy speculation rather than technology or revenue. Investors should be aware that this is a high-risk, high-volatility trade.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla reported earnings, missing on EPS (earnings per share) but meeting revenue expectations. The stock was down around 4-5% following the report.
  • The speaker expressed concern about the lack of a clear growth story for 2026.
    • Optimus robot production is slated to begin in 2026, but commercial shipments are not expected to be meaningful that year.
    • This leaves vehicle deliveries and Full Self-Driving (FSD) as the main potential growth drivers.
  • Elon Musk was quoted on the earnings call: "if we can get unsupervised FSD to be so good that you can text and drive, everyone will buy the car."
  • The stock is trading at a high valuation (145x PE) while experiencing negative year-over-year earnings growth (-30%).
  • Shareholders will vote on Elon Musk's pay package on November 6th. Elon made a pitch for it on the call, linking it to his motivation to build the "robot army."

Takeaways

  • The current valuation appears stretched given the negative earnings growth and unclear near-term catalysts.
  • The investment case for Tesla hinges on believing in long-term, yet-to-be-realized projects like FSD and Optimus robots, which may not significantly impact earnings until 2027 or later.
  • Near-term risk exists around Q4 deliveries, as the absence of the EV tax credit could dampen demand. A poll in the chat showed most listeners were not buying the dip, with many waiting for a price closer to $300.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir announced a new $200 million multi-year strategic partnership with Lumen Technologies (LUMN).
  • The goal of the partnership is to help enterprises deploy AI faster and more securely.
  • The speaker noted this is a positive development for Palantir's commercial business growth.
  • CEO Alex Karp is scheduled to appear on Fox News, which could bring more attention to the company ahead of earnings.
  • The speaker mentioned buying the dip in PLTR stock the previous day.

Takeaways

  • The $200 million Lumen deal is a significant win that strengthens the bull case for Palantir's commercial segment.
  • Investors should watch for continued commercial deal announcements as a key indicator of the company's growth trajectory. Achieving 50% commercial growth in the upcoming Q3 earnings could be a major catalyst for the stock.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

  • The company provided a preliminary Q1 earnings update, which caused the stock to drop sharply (down over 8% at one point).
  • They reported Q1 revenue of $5 billion, missing their prior guidance of $6 to $7 billion.
  • The company stated the miss was due to supply chain issues and delayed revenue shifting to Q2, not a lack of demand. They specifically cited strong demand for Blackwell Ultra GPUs and liquid cooling solutions.
  • SMCI reiterated its fiscal year 2026 revenue target of at least $33 billion.

Takeaways

  • The key distinction for investors is whether the revenue miss was caused by weak demand or supply constraints.
  • The company's claim of it being a supply issue is a positive sign for the underlying business. If this is true, the stock's sharp drop could represent a buying opportunity for those who believe demand for AI hardware remains robust.
  • The stock's partial recovery from its pre-market lows indicates that some investors are buying into the "supply issue" narrative.

Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.)

  • There is growing optimism around crypto regulation in the U.S. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated there is "strong bipartisan support" to get market structure legislation done, possibly before Thanksgiving.
  • A report from venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz highlighted that stablecoins have found product-market fit and that real-world assets (RWA) are increasingly being brought on-chain.
  • Fed Governor Waller acknowledged that crypto is "no longer on the fringes" and that the Fed is actively researching tokenization and the use of blockchain for its own payment systems.
  • Robinhood listed the cryptocurrency Hype (HYPE) for spot trading.

Takeaways

  • The regulatory climate for crypto in the U.S. appears to be improving, which could remove a major overhang for the asset class.
  • Increasing institutional adoption and the development of real-world use cases (like tokenizing bonds and other assets) are strengthening the long-term investment thesis beyond pure speculation.
  • The supportive tone from a Fed Governor is a significant sign of mainstream acceptance. The speaker suggests that having some exposure to crypto seems prudent given these developments.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought another 150,000 shares of HOOD on the recent dip, signaling strong institutional conviction.
  • The speaker shared a preview of Robinhood's upcoming banking feature, which will offer a 3.75% APY on checking accounts for users with direct deposit.
  • An analyst who reportedly convinced Cathie Wood to invest in Hood is said to be "really bullish" on the company's future in the global financial ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • The new high-yield banking feature could be a major catalyst for user growth and attracting significant deposits, transforming Robinhood into a more comprehensive financial platform.
  • Continued buying from prominent investors like Cathie Wood provides a vote of confidence and could offer price support.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon introduced a new AI tool called "Help Me Decide" to analyze user history and recommend products.
  • A Morgan Stanley report estimated that Amazon's increasing use of warehouse robotics could lead to $4 billion in annual savings by 2027, significantly boosting operating margins.
  • The speaker emphasized Amazon's immense scale and customer loyalty, noting the company processes an average of 536,000 orders per hour.

Takeaways

  • Amazon's investments in AI and robotics are a key driver for future profitability through margin expansion.
  • The company's entrenched position in e-commerce makes it a resilient long-term investment. Any incremental improvements in efficiency have an outsized impact on the bottom line due to the massive scale of its operations.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The speaker is bullish on SoFi's upcoming earnings, pointing to the very strong earnings report from competitor Lending Club (LC) as a positive sign for the personal loan market.
  • The speaker disclosed that he purchased 500 shares of SoFi at an average price of $26.88.
  • A guest on the show predicted that SoFi is about to report its "best quarter by far" and that Wall Street estimates are "not even remotely close" to what he expects.

Takeaways

  • Strong performance from peers like Lending Club suggests a healthy consumer lending environment, which is a positive read-through for SoFi's core business.
  • There is high expectation for a strong earnings report. This, combined with a potential Fed rate cut the following day, could create a "squeeze" on short-sellers and lead to a significant upward move in the stock.

Gold

  • The price of gold was up over 2%.
  • JP Morgan released a bullish report, predicting gold prices could exceed $8,000 per ounce by 2028 and potentially hit $5,000 by the end of this year.
  • Demand from China is surging, with Shanghai gold warrants (digital certificates for physical gold) increasing 28x since 2024.
  • The ballooning U.S. national debt, which just crossed $38 trillion, is cited as a major long-term bull case for gold as a store of value.

Takeaways

  • Gold is positioned as an attractive hedge against both equity market risk and long-term currency debasement due to massive government spending and debt.
  • Strong institutional price targets and surging international demand, particularly from China, provide strong tailwinds for the asset.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!