TESLA DELIVERY NUMBERS, NVIDIA ALL TIME HIGHS, GALAXY DIGITAL CEO JOINS THE SHOW | MARKET OPEN
TESLA DELIVERY NUMBERS, NVIDIA ALL TIME HIGHS, GALAXY DIGITAL CEO JOINS THE SHOW | MARKET OPEN
219 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 40 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider NVIDIA (NVDA) as a core holding for AI exposure, with analysts seeing a potential path to a $203 share price as it dominates the data center market. Grab (GRAB) presents a compelling opportunity around $6 per share, with a new high-margin software business creating a potential fair value of $8.50. Investors should also explore the Data Center & AI Infrastructure theme through companies like Galaxy Digital (GLXY), which is pivoting to service high-demand AI clients. The emerging Tokenization trend positions platforms like Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) for significant growth as they lead this new financial shift. Finally, the outlook is bullish for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), which are poised to benefit from expected interest rate cuts.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The host expressed a very bullish sentiment, noting the stock was hitting all-time highs around $190.
  • Momentum is being driven by broad headlines in the data center and AI space. The host states, "all roads end up leading back to NVIDIA."
  • A major catalyst mentioned was Microsoft's expanded partnership with Nebius, giving them access to 100,000 NVIDIA Blackwell chips. This is seen as a direct indicator of massive, ongoing demand for NVIDIA's products.
  • Citi Research raised its 2026 AI CapEx forecast from $420 billion to $490 billion, with a bull case of $5.5 trillion in global CapEx through 2029. This long-term forecast supports the growth narrative for NVIDIA.
  • The host mentioned a potential path for NVIDIA to reach a $5 trillion market cap, which would equate to a $203 share price.

Takeaways

  • The core investment thesis is that NVIDIA is the primary beneficiary of the massive global buildout of AI and data center infrastructure.
  • Deals signed by other companies (like Nebius and CoreWeave) to acquire NVIDIA's GPUs are direct positive signals for NVIDIA's future revenue.
  • The stock is seen as a foundational holding for exposure to the AI theme, as it represents a significant portion (8%) of the S&P 500.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla reported record Q3 deliveries of 497,000 vehicles, significantly beating Wall Street estimates of 447,000.
  • The company also reported record energy deployment of 12.5 gigawatt hours, a nearly 100% year-over-year increase from 6.9 gigawatt hours in the same quarter last year.
  • The strong delivery numbers were partly attributed to a pull-forward in demand from buyers looking to take advantage of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired.
  • Despite the strong report, the stock exhibited a "sell the news" reaction. It initially surged to $475 in pre-market trading but then sold off and turned negative for the day, falling to $457.
  • The host suggested that after a strong run-up in the weeks prior, the positive news was likely already "baked into" the stock price.

Takeaways

  • Tesla's operational performance in Q3 was very strong, with record deliveries and impressive growth in its energy business.
  • However, investors should be aware that positive catalysts can sometimes be priced in ahead of time, leading to price drops even on good news.
  • The long-term investment narrative remains focused on AI, autonomous driving, robotics, and the rapidly growing energy segment, which could be a major value driver in a world that needs more power for data centers.

Data Center & AI Infrastructure Theme

  • This was presented as one of the hottest investment sectors, with multiple companies experiencing significant stock price increases.
  • Nebius (NBS): Stock was up 8% after Microsoft expanded its partnership, giving Nebius access to 100,000 NVIDIA GPUs. This validates their business model and role as a key player in the AI cloud infrastructure space.
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): CEO Mike Novogratz discussed the company's pivot from being a Bitcoin miner to a data center play. He stated it's now "probably half our business" and that they have a massive, long-term contract with CoreWeave that will generate billions in rent.
  • Other related stocks mentioned as performing well:
    • Applied Digital (APLD): Up 9%.
    • CoreWeave (CRW): Up 1.93% and mentioned in a $33 billion investment from Microsoft.
    • IREN: Up 3.5%.
    • CleanSpark (CLSK) and BitFarms (BITF): Bitcoin miners that are also transitioning to become data center plays.

Takeaways

  • There is a massive investment cycle happening in building the physical infrastructure for AI.
  • Companies that own land and have access to power are in a prime position to benefit.
  • A new trend is emerging where traditional Bitcoin mining companies are pivoting their facilities to service the high-demand, high-margin data center market, potentially transforming them into more stable, real estate-like businesses.

Grab (GRAB)

  • The host was extremely bullish on recent news about the company.
  • Grab is expanding its proprietary Grab Maps technology to Mongolia through a partnership and is in talks to offer it to other companies globally, including in the Middle East.
  • This is significant for three reasons:
    1. It marks an expansion outside of its core Southeast Asia market.
    2. It creates a new, potentially high-margin (SaaS-like) revenue stream, which is critical for a company that has historically sacrificed profit for growth.
    3. It signals a larger global ambition beyond being just a regional super-app.
  • The host mentioned they have been accumulating shares at current levels (around $6) and sees a fair value of at least $8.50 with analyst price targets at $10.

Takeaways

  • Grab is showing signs of evolving its business model to monetize its in-house technology on a global scale.
  • This new revenue stream could significantly improve the company's profitability and lead to a re-rating of the stock by investors.
  • The host views the current price as an attractive entry point for accumulating a position based on this long-term growth story.

Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana)

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Sentiment is bullish, with the price approaching $120,000. It is described as "digital gold" and a "finished product" that serves as a hedge against currency debasement.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Sentiment is bullish, with the price near $4,400. It is positioned as the leading smart contract platform, with the majority of stablecoins built on it. It's in a "boxing match" with Solana to become the primary infrastructure layer of the new financial system.
  • Solana (SOL): Mentioned as a powerful competitor to Ethereum. It is described as an L1 blockchain that is "fast as heck" and "tailor-made to be the blockchain for capital markets."
  • Overall Market: The expectation of a more dovish Fed and future rate cuts is seen as a major tailwind for the entire crypto asset class.

Takeaways

  • The macro environment of expected monetary easing is favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
  • Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggests a diversified crypto portfolio, including Bitcoin as a store of value and exposure to leading smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana that are competing for future utility.
  • The approval of crypto-friendly legislation (like the "Genius Act" mentioned) is seen as a major catalyst that will bring more institutional and corporate players into the space.

Tokenization Theme (Robinhood, Coinbase, Telegram)

  • This is a major bullish theme discussed on the show.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): The stock was performing well, breaking through $140, $143, and touching $145. CEO Vlad Tenev was quoted as saying, "Tokenization is a freight train and it'll eat the entire financial system." Robinhood is seen as a pioneer in this space.
  • Telegram: The messaging platform, with over a billion users, is launching the ability to trade tokenized stocks like Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA within its app.
  • Coinbase (COIN): The stock was up over 6%, benefiting from the bullish crypto sentiment and the validation of the tokenization trend.

Takeaways

  • The tokenization of real-world assets (like stocks) on the blockchain is an emerging trend that could massively expand the market for trading.
  • Companies like Robinhood and Coinbase are well-positioned to be leaders in this new financial paradigm.
  • The entry of massive consumer platforms like Telegram into this space is a strong validation of the trend and suggests a future where investing is more integrated into everyday digital life.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • SoFi announced the launch of Level 1 options trading, a feature that was highly requested by its members.
  • This news is fundamentally bullish as it expands the company's product offerings and can increase user engagement and revenue.
  • However, the stock's reaction was muted. It saw a brief pop on the news but then traded flat to slightly down for the day.
  • The host expressed confusion over the weak price action, suggesting that while the news is good, other negative factors might be weighing on the stock.

Takeaways

  • SoFi continues to innovate and roll out new products to meet customer demand, which is a positive sign for its long-term growth.
  • The weak market reaction to positive news could indicate that the stock is facing other headwinds or that investor sentiment is currently cautious. The host suggested it might be an "obvious buy the dip" opportunity, but with some uncertainty.

FICO (FICO)

  • The stock surged dramatically, up over 26% on the day.
  • The catalyst was the launch of a new direct licensing program that allows lenders to access FICO scores directly, cutting out middlemen like Equifax (EFX) and TransUnion (TRU).
  • This move was described as "very smart" and "innovative."
  • As a direct result, shares of the middlemen companies were down significantly (TransUnion was down 11%).

Takeaways

  • FICO's strategic business model change was seen as a major positive, unlocking significant value for shareholders.
  • This serves as an example of how established companies can disrupt their own industries to fight off competitive pressures.
  • Investors who bought the stock during its period of weakness earlier in the year were handsomely rewarded.

Netflix (NFLX)

  • The stock is facing bearish pressure from a "cancel Netflix" social media campaign, which has been amplified by Elon Musk.
  • The campaign is reportedly in response to the platform's content, which some critics deem "too woke."
  • The stock has lost approximately $40 billion in market capitalization due to this pressure and was down another 2.6% on the day of the podcast.
  • The host noted that a social arbitrage trader had successfully shorted the stock based on this negative social trend.

Takeaways

  • Netflix is currently facing a significant brand and PR crisis that is directly impacting its stock price.
  • This is a key risk factor for investors to monitor, as a sustained boycott could potentially impact subscriber growth and financials.
  • The situation highlights the power of social media to influence market sentiment and stock performance.

Mercado Libre (MELI)

  • The stock was down due to news that Amazon (AMZN) is making a more aggressive push into Latin America, particularly Brazil.
  • Amazon is temporarily offering free fulfillment and storage services to attract sellers, directly challenging Mercado Libre's moat in logistics.
  • The host expressed some hesitation about the stock, noting that unlike Amazon with its high-margin AWS, Mercado Libre's margins are more vulnerable to a price war in e-commerce.
  • The company's fintech arm, Mercado Pay, was mentioned as a very strong and fast-growing part of the business that helps offset some of this risk.

Takeaways

  • Increased competition from Amazon is a significant risk for Mercado Libre's core e-commerce business.
  • Investors considering the stock should weigh the competitive threat to its e-commerce margins against the continued growth and strength of its more profitable Mercado Pay segment.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - NVDA 15:00 - TSLA Numbers 25:30 - GRAB 29:35 - Netflix 32:00 - AMZN 38:50 - Macro 44:00 - Market Open 1:12:00 - Bessent 1:27:51 - Mike Johnson Speaks 1:47:50 - Mike joins 2:27:45 - Dan Niles
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!