SPACEX MAKES IT'S OFFICIAL PUBLIC DEBUT | MARKET CLOSE
SPACEX MAKES IT'S OFFICIAL PUBLIC DEBUT | MARKET CLOSE
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Following its historic IPO, SpaceX is considered a "must-have" institutional asset, with analysts viewing entries below the $180–$190 range as a strong value despite recent volatility. Investors should avoid using smaller competitors like Rocket Lab (RKLB) or AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) as proxies, as the market is currently rotating capital out of these names and into the "real thing." Robinhood (HOOD) presents a high-conviction opportunity near $93, supported by $50 million in recent insider buying and a rapidly growing prediction markets business. In the technology sector, Salesforce (CRM) is highlighted as a deep-value play for patient investors, while NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the preferred "stable" anchor for AI infrastructure exposure. Keep a close watch on Roku (ROKU) for speculative gains as buyout rumors involving Netflix could drive further price action toward the $144 level.

Detailed Analysis

SpaceX (PRIVATE/PUBLIC DEBUT)

  • SpaceX officially went public at a valuation of $2.09 trillion, making it one of the largest companies in the U.S. by market cap.
  • The IPO was priced at $135 per share; it opened at $150 and reached a high of $176.50 before closing the first day at $161.21 (up roughly 19.5%).
  • Record-breaking Volume: 488 million shares were traded on the first day, more than double the previous record held by Alibaba in 2014.
  • Retail Participation: This was the highest retail-participated IPO in history, surpassing Coinbase, Uber, and Robinhood.
  • Valuation Debate: While many retail investors in the chat viewed the stock as overvalued, several CNBC analysts suggested it was a "great deal" below the $180–$190 range.

Takeaways

  • Volatility Warning: Investors who bought at the $176 peak are currently "bag-holding" after the late-day reversal to $161.
  • Liquidity Drain: The SpaceX debut acted as a "liquidity vacuum," pulling capital away from other space stocks.
  • Institutional Benchmark: Professional money managers now view SpaceX as a "must-have" or a position they must be able to explain if they choose to avoid it, given its size relative to U.S. GDP.

The "Space Trade" (Sectors & Proxies)

  • The SpaceX IPO triggered a "sell the news" event for the broader space sector.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB): Down 10%.
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Down 15%.
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR): Down 12%.
  • Redwire (RDW): Down 11%.
  • Virgin Galactic (SPCE): Down 32%, hitting a low of $3.80.

Takeaways

  • Proxy Failure: Buying other space stocks as a "proxy" for SpaceX did not work; the market preferred the "real thing," leading to a massive sell-off in smaller competitors.
  • Short Opportunity: Some traders successfully shorted the smaller space names leading into the IPO, anticipating this capital rotation.

Roku (ROKU)

  • The stock surged 21% to approximately $144 (Market Cap: $21 billion).
  • The spike was driven by rumors of potential sale talks or a media tie-up.
  • Potential Buyers: Netflix was mentioned as a logical contender, though analysts question if regulators would approve the merging of their ad businesses.

Takeaways

  • Speculative Play: The move is currently rumor-driven. Investors should watch for official headlines regarding a buyout or merger.

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Described as a "stablecoin" recently, trading in a tight range around $205.
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Expected to be treated similarly to NVIDIA—sitting flat until the next major catalyst.
  • Micron (MU): Down 1.4% ahead of its earnings on June 24th.
  • Nebius (NBIS): Up 4% to $232, showing resilience following its NASDAQ inclusion.

Takeaways

  • CapEx Theme: The analysts remain bullish on "CapEx" (Capital Expenditure) stocks—companies that build the hardware for AI (semis, data centers).
  • Valuation Perspective: Despite high prices, many semis are trading at reasonable forward P/E ratios (15x–30x) relative to their massive 50%+ earnings growth.

Software & SaaS Sector

  • A difficult day for software: Palantir (PLTR), ServiceNow (NOW), Adobe (ADBE), and Reddit (RDT) all saw significant selling.
  • Salesforce (CRM): Highlighted as one of the "cheapest" companies in the market currently, though it lacks "momentum" as the market favors hardware.

Takeaways

  • SaaS Apocalypse: There is a growing sentiment that "boring" SaaS (Software as a Service) companies are becoming "the new PayPal"—steady but unloved by the market compared to AI hardware.

Macro & Other Mentions

  • Robinhood (HOOD): Trading around $93. Analysts are bullish due to its prediction markets business (estimated $600M ARR) and heavy insider buying ($50M in a week).
  • Meta (META): Implementing "token limits" for employees to control skyrocketing AI costs.
  • Oil: Trading around $84. A potential deal involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push oil below $80, which would be a major tailwind for cooling inflation (CPI/PPI).
  • S&P 500 (SPY): Closed around 741. The market is showing some hesitation but remains in a general uptrend.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!