SOFTBANK SELLS NVIDIA, NEBIUS EARNINGS, SHUTDOWN COMING TO AN END | MARKET OPEN
SOFTBANK SELLS NVIDIA, NEBIUS EARNINGS, SHUTDOWN COMING TO AN END | MARKET OPEN
179 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 45 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying the dip in data center provider Nebius, as recent prices below $110 are seen as a buying opportunity following strong earnings and a new $3 billion deal with Meta. For a major catalyst-driven idea, look at Grab (GRAB), which could see a significant re-rating if it successfully acquires its main competitor's business in a rumored deal. Large-cap investors should consider Meta Platforms (META) on its recent pullback, with the stock viewed as attractive at 19 times forward earnings. For broader exposure to the entire AI build-out, NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the core holding, and pullbacks are considered healthy buying opportunities. Investors should be cautious with competitor CoreWeave, which is facing analyst downgrades and concerns over its debt and operational delays.

Detailed Analysis

Nebius (Fictional Ticker)

  • The company reported what the host described as "pretty damn good" earnings, which they "crushed."
    • Revenue of $146 million.
    • 19% adjusted EBITDA margins.
    • 355% year-over-year group revenue growth.
  • Guidance was raised significantly:
    • Targeting $7 to $9 billion of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in 2026.
    • Based on this, the host calculates the stock is trading at a cheap 3 times 2026 forward revenue.
    • Contracted power for 2026 increased from 1 gigawatt to 2.5 gigawatts.
  • A new major deal was announced with Meta (META) for $3 billion over five years. This was a key catalyst for the host, as it proved the company could land more hyperscaler deals beyond its Microsoft contract.
  • The host initiated a "starter position," buying shares at $110 and adding more at $108 during a pre-market dip, viewing the price drop on strong earnings as a buying opportunity.
  • The host prefers Nebius over competitor Corweave due to a more attractive valuation, a better debt profile, and more trust in the management team.
  • A key risk mentioned is the stock's volatility. It recently went from $130 to $104 and back to $130 in a short period.

Takeaways

  • The host is bullish on Nebius, viewing it as a strong growth play in the data center and "NeoCloud" space.
  • The stock appears undervalued based on its 2026 revenue guidance, trading at what the host considers a "pretty damn cheap" multiple of 3x forward revenue.
  • The new Meta deal is a significant de-risking event, proving the company's ability to win major contracts from multiple hyperscalers.
  • The host's decision to buy the stock during a pre-market dip, despite strong earnings, suggests an opportunity for investors who believe in the long-term story to accumulate shares during periods of unexplained weakness.
  • Investors should be prepared for significant price volatility with this stock.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • SoftBank sold its entire remaining stake in NVIDIA for $5.8 billion.
  • The host does not view this as a bearish signal for NVIDIA. The rationale is that SoftBank needs liquidity to fund other high-growth AI investments like OpenAI and Arm, where they see potential for faster compounding.
  • It was highlighted that if SoftBank had held its original stake from 2019, it would be worth $250 billion today.
  • The day before the podcast, NVIDIA had its best day since April, rising 6%. The host sees the current pre-market dip of 2% as normal and healthy consolidation after such a strong move.
  • NVIDIA is considered the central and primary way to get exposure to the entire data center and AI build-out. The performance of "NeoCloud" stocks like Nebius and CoreWeave is seen as highly dependent on NVIDIA's performance.

Takeaways

  • The sale by a major investor like SoftBank is not seen as a negative reflection on NVIDIA's future growth but rather a portfolio management decision by the seller.
  • The host's sentiment remains bullish on NVIDIA as the core of the AI investment theme.
  • Investors should expect pullbacks and consolidation after massive single-day gains, which can present buying opportunities.
  • NVIDIA's stock performance is a key indicator for the entire data center sector. If NVIDIA is down, derivative plays are likely to be down as well.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The host bought more shares at $632, dollar-cost averaging into an existing position.
  • The stock is trading at 19 times forward earnings, which the host considers an attractive valuation for a high-quality company.
  • While there are concerns about CEO Mark Zuckerberg's high capital expenditures on AI (e.g., a $15 billion deal with Scale AI), the host finds it "really hard to bet against Zuck," citing the incredible growth of Instagram Reels to $50 billion in annual revenue in just 3.5 years.
  • The host believes it might be difficult to get a significantly better price (e.g., below $600) in the current market environment, making it worthwhile to start buying on the dip.

Takeaways

  • The host is bullish on Meta, viewing the recent 15% pullback from highs as a buying opportunity.
  • Despite concerns about AI spending, the company's track record of execution and its current valuation make it a compelling investment.
  • Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is presented as a reasonable strategy, starting to buy at current levels rather than waiting for a potentially unattainable "perfect" entry point.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

  • SoFi is officially re-launching cryptocurrency trading on its platform, making it the first and only nationally chartered bank to do so.
  • They will initially offer Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), with plans to expand the selection.
  • CEO Anthony Noto highlighted that funds used for crypto trading will be held in FDIC-insured SoFi accounts that earn interest, a key differentiator from competitors like Coinbase or Robinhood.
  • The rumored fee for crypto trades is 1%, which is lower than Coinbase but higher than Robinhood.
  • CEO Anthony Noto also revealed that 3% of his personal investable assets are in cryptocurrency, primarily Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The host views this development as bullish for SoFi. Adding a highly-demanded feature like crypto trading can increase user engagement and attract new assets to the platform.
  • This move positions SoFi to better compete with fintech rivals like Robinhood, which is moving into SoFi's territory by offering banking products.
  • The integration of crypto within a regulated, interest-bearing bank account could be a major draw for mainstream consumers who are curious about crypto but wary of less-regulated exchanges.

Grab (GRAB)

  • There is a major rumor, reported by Bloomberg, that SoftBank is leading a shareholder push to oust the CEO of Grab's main competitor, GoTo.
  • This move is seen as paving the way for Grab to acquire GoTo's ride-hailing and delivery businesses.
  • Such a deal would be "very accretive to margins" for Grab, as it would likely end the intense price war between the two companies in Southeast Asia.
  • The host is extremely bullish on this news, calling it a "complete narrative re-rating" and the most significant development for the company in months.
  • The stock was up 5% on this news, holding its gains even as the broader market was red, which the host interprets as a sign of the market's excitement about the potential deal.

Takeaways

  • A potential acquisition of its largest competitor's core business is a massive potential catalyst for Grab.
  • This could solidify Grab's dominant position in the Southeast Asian market and significantly improve its profitability and long-term growth trajectory.
  • Investors interested in emerging markets and the Southeast Asian consumer story should watch this development closely. The confirmation of a deal could lead to a significant re-rating of the stock.

CoreWeave (Fictional Ticker)

  • The company reported earnings that beat analyst expectations on both EPS and revenue.
  • Despite the beat, the stock was down over 11%.
  • The negative reaction is attributed to several factors:
    • Concerns about the company's increasing debt load.
    • A delay from a third-party data center developer, which is pushing some Q4 revenue into the next year.
    • The company lowered its full-year revenue and adjusted EBIT guidance.
  • Multiple analyst firms, including JP Morgan and DA Davidson, downgraded the stock. DA Davidson was particularly harsh, stating, "We continue to believe this business is not worth scaling."

Takeaways

  • The host's sentiment is bearish to neutral. While the company is growing, the increasing debt and operational delays are significant red flags for the market.
  • This serves as a cautionary tale for investors in the "NeoCloud" space: top-line growth is not enough if the underlying business has financial or operational issues.
  • The starkly negative market reaction to what seemed like a decent earnings report highlights the risks associated with high-debt, high-growth companies.

Investment Theme: Data Centers & "NeoClouds"

  • This is a major investment theme driven by the AI boom. Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google are spending tens of billions on AI infrastructure.
  • These large companies need "NeoClouds" (smaller, specialized cloud providers) like Nebius, CoreWeave, and IREN to help build out and manage this capacity.
  • The host believes the best way to play this theme is by owning NVIDIA (NVDA), as it is the core supplier to the entire ecosystem.
  • For investors seeking higher growth (and higher risk), the host has chosen Nebius as their preferred individual NeoCloud stock due to its strong growth, new contracts, and more reasonable valuation compared to peers.
  • The entire sector tends to trade together. On the day of the podcast, NVIDIA, CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN were all down, indicating a sector-wide pullback.

Takeaways

  • The AI data center build-out is a multi-year "super cycle" with massive capital investment.
  • A conservative approach is to invest directly in NVIDIA, the key enabler of the trend.
  • A higher-risk, higher-reward approach involves picking individual "NeoCloud" winners. This requires careful due diligence on valuation, debt, management, and contract wins, as shown by the diverging performance of Nebius and CoreWeave post-earnings.
  • These stocks are highly correlated, and sector-wide pullbacks can offer buying opportunities for investors with a long-term conviction.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - NBIS, META 18:00 - Grab 24:30 - SoFi 44:00 - Market Open 1:14:52 - Trump 1:37:03 - CoreWeave 2:00:00 - Softbank NVDA 2:18:00 - Kevin Hasset
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!