SHUTDOWN COMES TO AN END, NVIDIA SEEING EVEN MORE DEMAND, MARKETS GREEN | MARKET OPEN
SHUTDOWN COMES TO AN END, NVIDIA SEEING EVEN MORE DEMAND, MARKETS GREEN | MARKET OPEN
180 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying NVIDIA (NVDA) ahead of its upcoming earnings report, as the company has reportedly increased chip orders by 50% to meet surging demand for its Blackwell AI chips. Micron (MU) is a key "picks and shovels" play on the AI boom, with its critical HBM memory already booked to capacity for all of 2025. For a value opportunity in big tech, look at Meta Platforms (META), which is considered attractively valued and a potential "buy the dip" candidate. For a long-term holding, consider accumulating Ethereum (ETH) on price dips, as it is positioned to be the foundational layer for the tokenization of real-world assets. For a higher-risk, high-reward opportunity, Opendoor (OPEN) is a turnaround bet on new leadership with a recent price target upgrade to $8 from JP Morgan.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was mentioned as being up 3.4% in the pre-market, recovering from a low of $179 to $194.
  • The sentiment is very bullish, driven by a report that NVIDIA has ordered 50% more wafers from its supplier TSMC.
    • This is to meet surging demand for its next-generation Blackwell AI chips.
    • This increased demand is happening even without sales to China, indicating very strong global demand.
  • The host highlighted that NVIDIA's valuation has become more attractive as its earnings have grown faster than its stock price.
    • The stock traded at 158 times earnings when it was $46 a share.
    • At $188, it now trades at 50 times earnings, and 28 times forward earnings.
  • The upcoming earnings report in a couple of weeks is seen as a major catalyst that will "decide the trajectory of where this market goes."
  • Famed investor Michael Burry is noted to have a bearish position on NVIDIA and is questioning the company's (and its customers') accounting practices related to the depreciation of its chips.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Case: The fundamental demand for NVIDIA's AI chips appears to be accelerating, which is a strong positive sign for future revenue and earnings growth. The stock's valuation is becoming more reasonable due to this explosive earnings growth.
  • Key Catalyst: The next earnings report is a critical event for both the company and the broader market. Strong results could fuel the next leg up for AI-related stocks.
  • Risk Factor: A high-profile investor, Michael Burry, is publicly bearish, arguing that the hyperscalers buying NVIDIA's chips are using accounting methods that artificially boost their earnings. This represents a notable counter-argument to the bullish thesis.

Grab (GRAB)

  • The stock was up 6% in the pre-market for two main reasons:
    • Merger Buzz: There is growing excitement about a potential merger between Grab and its competitor GoTo's ride-hailing business in Indonesia. A representative from the Indonesian president's office stated they are "actively looking for a way for these two companies to merge."
    • Strategic Investment: Grab is investing $60 million into an autonomous vehicle (AV) company called Bay Technology, with the potential to invest another $350 million. This is Grab's third investment in the AV space.
  • The stock received a price target upgrade to $7 from $5.80 by Phillips Securities.

Takeaways

  • Potential Catalysts: A potential merger with a key competitor could solidify Grab's market leadership in Southeast Asia. The company is also strategically deploying its cash into future growth areas like autonomous mobility.
  • Investor Sentiment: While the news is positive, the host suggests the market may want to see more concrete details and financial impact from these developments before a more significant and sustained stock move occurs.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The host mentioned that Bitmine (BMNR), a company led by Tom Lee, purchased 110,000 ETH over the past week, viewing the price dip as an "attractive opportunity."
  • The core bullish thesis for Ethereum, as articulated by Tom Lee, is its role as the foundational layer for the tokenization of assets.
    • The belief is that Wall Street's growing interest in putting real-world assets on the blockchain will drive immense value to the Ethereum network.
    • Lee referred to this as a "super cycle story over the next decade."
  • The host also highlighted comments from Robinhood's CEO about building new financial products on an Ethereum layer-two network.

Takeaways

  • Long-Term Thesis: The primary investment case for Ethereum is its potential to become the dominant platform for tokenized real-world assets, a trend that is just beginning to gain traction in traditional finance.
  • Investor Behavior: Institutional-like players such as Bitmine are accumulating ETH on price dips, signaling confidence in the long-term outlook.
  • Volatility: The host reminds listeners that it will be a "volatile ride," and investors need to be prepared for significant price swings.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Investor Michael Burry has disclosed a bearish position on Palantir and has been publicly tweeting criticism of the company and its CEO, Alex Karp.
  • Despite the high-profile bearish bet, the stock has been showing significant strength, rallying from $169 last week to over $193.
  • The host speculates that Burry's public tweets may be an attempt to influence market sentiment, as his bearish position is likely "underwater" given the stock's recent rally.

Takeaways

  • Battleground Stock: Palantir is currently a battleground between strong bullish momentum, fueled by the AI narrative, and a prominent bearish investor.
  • Strength Signal: The stock's ability to rally strongly in the face of a well-known short-seller is seen by bulls as a sign of underlying strength and conviction from its investor base.
  • Key Dynamic: Investors should watch the interplay between the company's fundamental performance (e.g., new contracts, earnings) and the narrative being pushed by bears like Burry.

Healthcare Sector (OSCR, UNH)

  • Healthcare stocks, particularly insurers, were noted to be under pressure. Oscar Health (OSCR) was down over 10%, and UnitedHealth (UNH) has fallen from $390 to $317 in recent weeks.
  • The primary reason for the weakness is political uncertainty surrounding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies.
  • The recent government funding deal did not include a long-term extension of these subsidies, instead pushing a vote to January. This lack of clarity is a major headwind for the sector.

Takeaways

  • Policy Risk: This situation is a clear example of how government policy can directly impact stock prices. The profitability of insurers like Oscar Health is highly dependent on the continuation of ACA subsidies.
  • Investment Consideration: Anyone investing in this sector must have a strong understanding of the political and regulatory landscape. The uncertainty will likely persist until there is a definitive vote on the subsidies, leading to continued volatility.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The stock fell to $601 on Friday but recovered to $630.
  • The host described the stock as "stupidly cheap" on a forward-looking basis, comparing its valuation to when Google was trading at $140.
  • In a poll asking whether to hold Amazon or Meta for the next year, the host leaned towards Meta due to its more attractive valuation.
  • Michael Burry specifically named Meta in a new, bearish tweet, arguing the company is artificially boosting earnings by understating the depreciation of its assets (like servers and AI chips).

Takeaways

  • Value Play: The main bullish argument for Meta is its compelling valuation relative to its earnings and growth prospects. It is being viewed as a "buy the dip" opportunity for investors looking for value in the big tech space.
  • Bearish Counterpoint: The stock is a direct target of Michael Burry's new bearish thesis on AI-related capital expenditures. He claims the company's reported earnings are inflated due to improper accounting for depreciation, a serious accusation that investors should be aware of.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock is recovering after falling to $120 last week.
  • CEO Vlad Tenev outlined a vision for the future of finance centered on tokenization, where users could trade fractional ownership of any asset, such as a specific piece of real estate. Robinhood is building its own Ethereum layer-two network to facilitate this.
  • The company's prediction markets product is showing explosive growth, with 2.5 billion contracts traded in October, surpassing the entire volume of Q3.

Takeaways

  • Future Growth Drivers: Robinhood's long-term potential extends beyond stock and crypto trading. Key growth areas to watch are its push into tokenized assets and the rapid adoption of new products like prediction markets.
  • Technological Bet: The company is making a significant bet on the Ethereum ecosystem by building its own infrastructure, which could provide a competitive advantage if the tokenization trend accelerates.

Opendoor (OPEN)

  • The stock was up over 10% following a price target upgrade to $8 from JP Morgan.
  • The upgrade was not based on recent financial results (which were a miss) but on strong confidence in the new CEO, Kaz, who previously served as COO of Shopify (SHOP).
  • The host noted the CEO has a founder-like mentality and is highly incentivized to turn the company around.

Takeaways

  • Turnaround Bet: Investing in Opendoor at this stage is primarily a bet on its new leadership. The bull case rests on the belief that the new CEO can replicate his success from Shopify and make the business profitable.
  • High Risk, High Reward: The underlying business fundamentals, particularly profit margins, remain a significant challenge. This makes it a higher-risk investment, but with substantial upside if the turnaround is successful.

Micron (MU)

  • The stock was hitting all-time highs, trading around $253 and up over 6% on the day.
  • The strong performance is directly tied to the AI boom. Micron is a key producer of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a critical component for high-end AI chips from companies like NVIDIA.
  • The host mentioned that Micron is already booked to capacity for all of 2025, indicating that strong demand is expected to continue.

Takeaways

  • AI Beneficiary: Micron is a "picks and shovels" play on the AI revolution. As demand for AI processing power grows, so does the demand for the specialized memory that Micron produces.
  • Patience Rewarded: The stock was stagnant for a long period before the AI thesis fully played out. This serves as a lesson that it can take time for a correct investment thesis to be reflected in the stock price.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Headlines 05:50 - Shutdown 08:45 - Grab Goto 11:15 - BMNR 44:00 - Market Open 1:17:00 - Shutdown 2:02:50 - Mortgage 2:17:18 - Miran
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!