SANDISK, DUOLINGO, ELF, FIGMA, APPLOVIN, WESTERN DIGITAL, SMR EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
SANDISK, DUOLINGO, ELF, FIGMA, APPLOVIN, WESTERN DIGITAL, SMR EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
14 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on SanDisk's explosive growth and massive multi-year contracts by buying shares during post-earnings pullbacks, supported by their new $14 billion share buyback program. Long-term investors should use short-term market volatility in Mercado Libre (MELI) to accumulate shares as fintech assets surge 68% year-over-year. Add Axon Enterprise (AXON) to risk-managed technology portfolios to capture steady, reliable growth driven by their combined software and hardware ecosystem. Capitalize on SoundHound AI (SOUN) as a high-potential micro-cap play after they crushed revenue expectations by 18% and demonstrated accelerating financial momentum. Exercise caution with high-multiple tech stocks like AppLovin (APP), waiting for clearer entry points after minor growth deceleration triggered sharp post-earnings corrections.

Detailed Analysis

SanDisk (N/A - Spun off from Western Digital in 2025)

  • Reported record Q4 financial results with revenue of $8,965 million (up 372% year-over-year), exceeding guidance ranges.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 84.6%, higher than the anticipated 79% to 81% range.
  • Non-GAAP EPS reached $39.25, also above the guidance range of $30 to $33.
  • Data center revenue reached $2,977 million (up 103% sequentially), now representing 38% of the company's portfolio compared to 12% a year ago.
  • Formulated New Business Models (NBMs) with eight diverse data center and edge customers, representing a weighted average duration of over four years and minimum total expected revenue of $93.9 billion.
  • Signed NBM agreements are expected to represent more than 50% of bits in fiscal year 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal year 2028.
  • Secured $16.5 billion in financial guarantees (cash deposits and financial instruments) across existing NBM deals to protect against failure to satisfy purchase obligations.
  • Repurchased 2,836,000 shares of common stock for $4.5 billion during the quarter and authorized an additional $14 billion share repurchase program.
  • Estimated the global NAND market will exceed $300 billion in revenue in calendar year 2026 (3x year-over-year) and approach $500 billion in calendar year 2027.
  • Provided Q1 fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance between $10.3 and $10.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $44 and $46.

Takeaways

  • AI inference is driving massive memory-centric demand for NAND and high-capacity enterprise SSDs, providing significant tailwinds for growth.
  • Despite record-shattering earnings beats and robust long-term multi-year contracts, the stock experienced post-earnings volatility, reflecting broader market anxieties around memory cycle durability and cyclicality.
  • Investors should carefully weigh the risks of peak cyclicality against the company's aggressive buybacks and high operational leverage when evaluating entry points.

Western Digital (WDC)

  • Reported a double beat on earnings and revenue, with revenue up 44% year-over-year.
  • EPS beat Wall Street estimates ($3.56 actual vs. $3.30 expected), representing an 8% beat.
  • Q1 guide for adjusted EPS and revenue was higher than Wall Street expectations, with management anticipating further margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation.
  • Despite positive numbers, shares faced downward pressure in after-hours trading due to concerns that growth metrics did not match the massive beats of previous quarters.

Takeaways

  • While Western Digital continues to post solid fundamental growth alongside the broader memory boom, lighter-than-expected beats compared to historical standards have created a disconnect with high investor expectations.
  • Monitor the broader memory sector sentiment, as Western Digital's performance directly impacts peer high-beta stocks.

Mercado Libre (MELI)

  • Reported a strong revenue beat of 4% ($10.2 billion actual vs. $9.7 billion expected), with total revenue up 50% year-over-year.
  • EPS came in at $9.19 (versus $9.11 expected), meeting expectations closely while demonstrating solid compounding growth.
  • Assets under management (AUM) for the fintech side grew 68% year-over-year, indicating robust momentum across both commerce and financial services segments.

Takeaways

  • Mercado Libre continues to act as a resilient compounder, successfully growing across multiple geographies and operational segments.
  • Long-term investors can view strong revenue acceleration and expanding fintech engagement as structural catalysts, despite short-term margin fluctuations.

Axon Enterprise (AXON)

  • Delivered a double beat, reporting an EPS of $1.88 (beating estimates by 4 cents or 2%) and revenue of $904 million (beating estimates by 3%).
  • Continued to combine software capabilities with robust hardware sales via body cameras and enterprise safety ecosystems.

Takeaways

  • Axon remains a consistent SaaS and hardware performer, offering steady growth metrics that appeal to risk-managed tech portfolios.

AppLovin (APP)

  • Reported revenue up 53% year-over-year and EPS up 57% year-over-year, but failed to deliver a significant double beat relative to whispering expectations.
  • Experienced sharp post-earnings volatility, dropping significantly in after-hours trading despite high historical growth profiles.

Takeaways

  • High-multiple SaaS stocks require flawless, beat-and-raise quarters to satisfy market expectations; minor shortfalls can trigger severe short-term corrections.

SoundHound AI (SOUN)

  • Crushed expectations with an EPS beat of 23% (negative 10 cents vs negative 13 cents expected) and a revenue beat of 18% ($61 million vs $52 million expected).
  • Year-over-year metrics surged significantly, with EPS up 47% and revenue up 45%.

Takeaways

  • SoundHound stands out as an AI derivative play demonstrating tangible financial outperformance relative to its micro-cap peers, capturing significant market enthusiasm.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!